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HDFC Bank
NSE: HDFCBANK · Model build
Analyst
S. Rahman
Status
drafting
Model reviewer
HDFCBANK_Financial_Model_2026-08-29.xlsx · 350 editable inputs · recalculated 2026-08-29 16:36:08
Assumptions blue workbook inputs
YoY growth % - FY2027EE8
YoY growth % - FY2028EF8
YoY growth % - FY2029EG8
YoY growth % - FY2030EH8
YoY growth % - FY2031EI8
CASA ratio % (of total deposits) - FY2027EE9
CASA ratio % (of total deposits) - FY2028EF9
CASA ratio % (of total deposits) - FY2029EG9
CASA ratio % (of total deposits) - FY2030EH9
CASA ratio % (of total deposits) - FY2031EI9
Borrowings - FY2027EE12
Borrowings - FY2028EF12
Borrowings - FY2029EG12
Borrowings - FY2030EH12
Borrowings - FY2031EI12
Loan-to-deposit ratio % (driver) - FY2027EE20
Loan-to-deposit ratio % (driver) - FY2028EF20
Loan-to-deposit ratio % (driver) - FY2029EG20
Loan-to-deposit ratio % (driver) - FY2030EH20
Loan-to-deposit ratio % (driver) - FY2031EI20
Investments as % of deposits - FY2027EE23
Investments as % of deposits - FY2028EF23
Investments as % of deposits - FY2029EG23
Investments as % of deposits - FY2030EH23
Investments as % of deposits - FY2031EI23
Balances with banks as % of deposits - FY2027EE25
Balances with banks as % of deposits - FY2028EF25
Balances with banks as % of deposits - FY2029EG25
Balances with banks as % of deposits - FY2030EH25
Balances with banks as % of deposits - FY2031EI25
Yield on average advances % - FY2027EE30
Yield on average advances % - FY2028EF30
Yield on average advances % - FY2029EG30
Yield on average advances % - FY2030EH30
Yield on average advances % - FY2031EI30
Yield on average investments % - FY2027EE32
Yield on average investments % - FY2028EF32
Yield on average investments % - FY2029EG32
Yield on average investments % - FY2030EH32
Yield on average investments % - FY2031EI32
Yield on average balances with banks % - FY2027EE34
Yield on average balances with banks % - FY2028EF34
Yield on average balances with banks % - FY2029EG34
Yield on average balances with banks % - FY2030EH34
Yield on average balances with banks % - FY2031EI34
Other interest income - FY2027EE36
Other interest income - FY2028EF36
Other interest income - FY2029EG36
Other interest income - FY2030EH36
Other interest income - FY2031EI36
Cost of average deposits % - FY2027EE38
Cost of average deposits % - FY2028EF38
Cost of average deposits % - FY2029EG38
Cost of average deposits % - FY2030EH38
Cost of average deposits % - FY2031EI38
Cost of average borrowings % - FY2027EE40
Cost of average borrowings % - FY2028EF40
Cost of average borrowings % - FY2029EG40
Cost of average borrowings % - FY2030EH40
Cost of average borrowings % - FY2031EI40
Other interest expense - FY2027EE42
Other interest expense - FY2028EF42
Other interest expense - FY2029EG42
Other interest expense - FY2030EH42
Other interest expense - FY2031EI42
YoY growth % - FY2027EE51
YoY growth % - FY2028EF51
YoY growth % - FY2029EG51
YoY growth % - FY2030EH51
YoY growth % - FY2031EI51
YoY growth % - FY2027EE53
YoY growth % - FY2028EF53
YoY growth % - FY2029EG53
YoY growth % - FY2030EH53
YoY growth % - FY2031EI53
Profit on sale of investments, net (recurring, ex one-off) - FY2027EE54
Profit on sale of investments, net (recurring, ex one-off) - FY2028EF54
Profit on sale of investments, net (recurring, ex one-off) - FY2029EG54
Profit on sale of investments, net (recurring, ex one-off) - FY2030EH54
Profit on sale of investments, net (recurring, ex one-off) - FY2031EI54
Profit / (loss) on revaluation of investments, net - FY2027EE55
Profit / (loss) on revaluation of investments, net - FY2028EF55
Profit / (loss) on revaluation of investments, net - FY2029EG55
Profit / (loss) on revaluation of investments, net - FY2030EH55
Profit / (loss) on revaluation of investments, net - FY2031EI55
Profit on sale of building and other assets, net - FY2027EE56
Profit on sale of building and other assets, net - FY2028EF56
Profit on sale of building and other assets, net - FY2029EG56
Profit on sale of building and other assets, net - FY2030EH56
Profit on sale of building and other assets, net - FY2031EI56
YoY growth % - FY2027EE58
YoY growth % - FY2028EF58
YoY growth % - FY2029EG58
YoY growth % - FY2030EH58
YoY growth % - FY2031EI58
YoY growth % - FY2027EE60
YoY growth % - FY2028EF60
YoY growth % - FY2029EG60
YoY growth % - FY2030EH60
YoY growth % - FY2031EI60
One-off gains (FY2024 HDFC Credila dilution; FY2026 HDB Financial Services OFS) - FY2027EE62
One-off gains (FY2024 HDFC Credila dilution; FY2026 HDB Financial Services OFS) - FY2028EF62
One-off gains (FY2024 HDFC Credila dilution; FY2026 HDB Financial Services OFS) - FY2029EG62
One-off gains (FY2024 HDFC Credila dilution; FY2026 HDB Financial Services OFS) - FY2030EH62
One-off gains (FY2024 HDFC Credila dilution; FY2026 HDB Financial Services OFS) - FY2031EI62
YoY growth % - FY2027EE73
YoY growth % - FY2028EF73
YoY growth % - FY2029EG73
YoY growth % - FY2030EH73
YoY growth % - FY2031EI73
YoY growth % - FY2027EE75
YoY growth % - FY2028EF75
YoY growth % - FY2029EG75
YoY growth % - FY2030EH75
YoY growth % - FY2031EI75
YoY growth % - FY2027EE77
YoY growth % - FY2028EF77
YoY growth % - FY2029EG77
YoY growth % - FY2030EH77
YoY growth % - FY2031EI77
YoY growth % - FY2027EE79
YoY growth % - FY2028EF79
YoY growth % - FY2029EG79
YoY growth % - FY2030EH79
YoY growth % - FY2031EI79
Employee cost YoY growth % - FY2027EE38
Employee cost YoY growth % - FY2028EF38
Employee cost YoY growth % - FY2029EG38
Employee cost YoY growth % - FY2030EH38
Employee cost YoY growth % - FY2031EI38
Non-employee operating cost YoY growth % - FY2027EE50
Non-employee operating cost YoY growth % - FY2028EF50
Non-employee operating cost YoY growth % - FY2029EG50
Non-employee operating cost YoY growth % - FY2030EH50
Non-employee operating cost YoY growth % - FY2031EI50
Credit cost (bps on average gross advances) (driver) - FY2027EE61
Credit cost (bps on average gross advances) (driver) - FY2028EF61
Credit cost (bps on average gross advances) (driver) - FY2029EG61
Credit cost (bps on average gross advances) (driver) - FY2030EH61
Credit cost (bps on average gross advances) (driver) - FY2031EI61
Provision for depreciation on non-performing investments - FY2027EE62
Provision for depreciation on non-performing investments - FY2028EF62
Provision for depreciation on non-performing investments - FY2029EG62
Provision for depreciation on non-performing investments - FY2030EH62
Provision for depreciation on non-performing investments - FY2031EI62
Provision for standard assets - FY2027EE63
Provision for standard assets - FY2028EF63
Provision for standard assets - FY2029EG63
Provision for standard assets - FY2030EH63
Provision for standard assets - FY2031EI63
Floating provisions created (discretionary) - FY2027EE64
Floating provisions created (discretionary) - FY2028EF64
Floating provisions created (discretionary) - FY2029EG64
Floating provisions created (discretionary) - FY2030EH64
Floating provisions created (discretionary) - FY2031EI64
Other provisions and contingencies - FY2027EE65
Other provisions and contingencies - FY2028EF65
Other provisions and contingencies - FY2029EG65
Other provisions and contingencies - FY2030EH65
Other provisions and contingencies - FY2031EI65
Effective tax rate % (driver) - FY2027EE70
Effective tax rate % (driver) - FY2028EF70
Effective tax rate % (driver) - FY2029EG70
Effective tax rate % (driver) - FY2030EH70
Effective tax rate % (driver) - FY2031EI70
Weighted average shares outstanding (m, restated for the FY2026 1:1 bonus) - FY2027EE75
Weighted average shares outstanding (m, restated for the FY2026 1:1 bonus) - FY2028EF75
Weighted average shares outstanding (m, restated for the FY2026 1:1 bonus) - FY2029EG75
Weighted average shares outstanding (m, restated for the FY2026 1:1 bonus) - FY2030EH75
Weighted average shares outstanding (m, restated for the FY2026 1:1 bonus) - FY2031EI75
Dividend per share declared for the year (INR) (driver) - FY2027EE77
Dividend per share declared for the year (INR) (driver) - FY2028EF77
Dividend per share declared for the year (INR) (driver) - FY2029EG77
Dividend per share declared for the year (INR) (driver) - FY2030EH77
Dividend per share declared for the year (INR) (driver) - FY2031EI77
Employees stock options and units outstanding - FY2027EE8
Employees stock options and units outstanding - FY2028EF8
Employees stock options and units outstanding - FY2029EG8
Employees stock options and units outstanding - FY2030EH8
Employees stock options and units outstanding - FY2031EI8
add: proceeds from share capital and ESOP exercises (driver) - FY2027EE14
add: proceeds from share capital and ESOP exercises (driver) - FY2028EF14
add: proceeds from share capital and ESOP exercises (driver) - FY2029EG14
add: proceeds from share capital and ESOP exercises (driver) - FY2030EH14
add: proceeds from share capital and ESOP exercises (driver) - FY2031EI14
Other liabilities as % of deposits - FY2027EE18
Other liabilities as % of deposits - FY2028EF18
Other liabilities as % of deposits - FY2029EG18
Other liabilities as % of deposits - FY2030EH18
Other liabilities as % of deposits - FY2031EI18
Cash reserve ratio requirement (RBI, % of net demand and time liabilities) - FY2027EE24
Cash reserve ratio requirement (RBI, % of net demand and time liabilities) - FY2028EF24
Cash reserve ratio requirement (RBI, % of net demand and time liabilities) - FY2029EG24
Cash reserve ratio requirement (RBI, % of net demand and time liabilities) - FY2030EH24
Cash reserve ratio requirement (RBI, % of net demand and time liabilities) - FY2031EI24
Fixed assets, net - FY2027EE28
Fixed assets, net - FY2028EF28
Fixed assets, net - FY2029EG28
Fixed assets, net - FY2030EH28
Fixed assets, net - FY2031EI28
Other assets as % of deposits - FY2027EE30
Other assets as % of deposits - FY2028EF30
Other assets as % of deposits - FY2029EG30
Other assets as % of deposits - FY2030EH30
Other assets as % of deposits - FY2031EI30
Contingent liabilities as % of total assets - FY2027EE44
Contingent liabilities as % of total assets - FY2028EF44
Contingent liabilities as % of total assets - FY2029EG44
Contingent liabilities as % of total assets - FY2030EH44
Contingent liabilities as % of total assets - FY2031EI44
RWA density (RWA / total assets) % - FY2027EE50
RWA density (RWA / total assets) % - FY2028EF50
RWA density (RWA / total assets) % - FY2029EG50
RWA density (RWA / total assets) % - FY2030EH50
RWA density (RWA / total assets) % - FY2031EI50
CET 1 capital as % of net worth - FY2027EE52
CET 1 capital as % of net worth - FY2028EF52
CET 1 capital as % of net worth - FY2029EG52
CET 1 capital as % of net worth - FY2030EH52
CET 1 capital as % of net worth - FY2031EI52
Additional Tier 1 capital - FY2027EE53
Additional Tier 1 capital - FY2028EF53
Additional Tier 1 capital - FY2029EG53
Additional Tier 1 capital - FY2030EH53
Additional Tier 1 capital - FY2031EI53
Tier 2 capital - FY2027EE55
Tier 2 capital - FY2028EF55
Tier 2 capital - FY2029EG55
Tier 2 capital - FY2030EH55
Tier 2 capital - FY2031EI55
Regulatory minimum total capital ratio (incl. CCB and D-SIB surcharge) % - FY2027EE60
Regulatory minimum total capital ratio (incl. CCB and D-SIB surcharge) % - FY2028EF60
Regulatory minimum total capital ratio (incl. CCB and D-SIB surcharge) % - FY2029EG60
Regulatory minimum total capital ratio (incl. CCB and D-SIB surcharge) % - FY2030EH60
Regulatory minimum total capital ratio (incl. CCB and D-SIB surcharge) % - FY2031EI60
Gross NPA ratio % (driver) - FY2027EE65
Gross NPA ratio % (driver) - FY2028EF65
Gross NPA ratio % (driver) - FY2029EG65
Gross NPA ratio % (driver) - FY2030EH65
Gross NPA ratio % (driver) - FY2031EI65
Provision coverage ratio % (specific, excluding write-offs) (driver) - FY2027EE67
Provision coverage ratio % (specific, excluding write-offs) (driver) - FY2028EF67
Provision coverage ratio % (specific, excluding write-offs) (driver) - FY2029EG67
Provision coverage ratio % (specific, excluding write-offs) (driver) - FY2030EH67
Provision coverage ratio % (specific, excluding write-offs) (driver) - FY2031EI67
Floating provisions, closing balance (held in other liabilities) - FY2027EE70
Floating provisions, closing balance (held in other liabilities) - FY2028EF70
Floating provisions, closing balance (held in other liabilities) - FY2029EG70
Floating provisions, closing balance (held in other liabilities) - FY2030EH70
Floating provisions, closing balance (held in other liabilities) - FY2031EI70
Deposit growth, CAGR FY2027E-FY2031E % - BullB7
Deposit growth, CAGR FY2027E-FY2031E % - BaseC7
Deposit growth, CAGR FY2027E-FY2031E % - BearD7
Loan-to-deposit ratio, FY2031E % - BullB8
Loan-to-deposit ratio, FY2031E % - BaseC8
Loan-to-deposit ratio, FY2031E % - BearD8
Investments as % of deposits, FY2031E - BullB9
Investments as % of deposits, FY2031E - BaseC9
Investments as % of deposits, FY2031E - BearD9
Net interest margin on average earning assets, FY2031E % - BullB10
Net interest margin on average earning assets, FY2031E % - BaseC10
Net interest margin on average earning assets, FY2031E % - BearD10
Fee and other core income growth, CAGR % - BullB11
Fee and other core income growth, CAGR % - BaseC11
Fee and other core income growth, CAGR % - BearD11
Cost-to-income ratio, FY2031E % - BullB12
Cost-to-income ratio, FY2031E % - BaseC12
Cost-to-income ratio, FY2031E % - BearD12
Credit cost, FY2031E (bps on average gross advances) - BullB13
Credit cost, FY2031E (bps on average gross advances) - BaseC13
Credit cost, FY2031E (bps on average gross advances) - BearD13
Standard-asset and other provisions, FY2031E - BullB14
Standard-asset and other provisions, FY2031E - BaseC14
Standard-asset and other provisions, FY2031E - BearD14
Effective tax rate % - BullB15
Effective tax rate % - BaseC15
Effective tax rate % - BearD15
Weighted average shares, FY2031E (m) - BullB16
Weighted average shares, FY2031E (m) - BaseC16
Weighted average shares, FY2031E (m) - BearD16
Dividend payout ratio % - BullB17
Dividend payout ratio % - BaseC17
Dividend payout ratio % - BearD17
RWA density (RWA / total assets) % - BullB18
RWA density (RWA / total assets) % - BaseC18
RWA density (RWA / total assets) % - BearD18
CET 1 capital as % of net worth - BullB19
CET 1 capital as % of net worth - BaseC19
CET 1 capital as % of net worth - BearD19
Target operating CET 1 ratio % (driver) - FY2024AB19
Target operating CET 1 ratio % (driver) - FY2025AC19
Target operating CET 1 ratio % (driver) - FY2026AD19
Target operating CET 1 ratio % (driver) - FY2027EE19
Target operating CET 1 ratio % (driver) - FY2028EF19
Target operating CET 1 ratio % (driver) - FY2029EG19
Target operating CET 1 ratio % (driver) - FY2030EH19
Target operating CET 1 ratio % (driver) - FY2031EI19
Risk-free rate - India 10-year government security % - FY2024AB28
Equity risk premium - India % - FY2024AB29
Beta (levered, versus Nifty 50) - FY2024AB30
Size and liquidity adjustment % - FY2024AB31
Terminal growth rate % - FY2024AB33
Share price (INR, NSE close 28 August 2026) - FY2024AB37
Shares outstanding (m, as at 30 June 2026) - FY2024AB38
USD / INR (29 August 2026) - FY2024AB39
RBI policy repo rate % - FY2024AB49
Cash reserve ratio % of NDTL - FY2024AB50
Statutory liquidity ratio % of NDTL - FY2024AB51
System credit growth, FY2026 % YoY - FY2024AB52
System deposit growth, FY2026 % YoY - FY2024AB53
System credit-deposit ratio (31 January 2026) % - FY2024AB54
System net interest margin, FY2026 % - FY2024AB55
System return on assets, FY2026 % - FY2024AB56
System return on equity, FY2026 % - FY2024AB57
System gross NPA ratio, March 2026 % - FY2024AB58
India real GDP growth, FY2027E % - FY2024AB59
India CPI inflation, FY2027E % - FY2024AB60
Net interest margin % - FY2024AB64
Net interest margin % - FY2025AC64
Net interest margin % - FY2026AD64
Return on assets % - FY2024AB65
Return on assets % - FY2025AC65
Return on assets % - FY2026AD65
Return on equity % - FY2024AB66
Return on equity % - FY2025AC66
Return on equity % - FY2026AD66
Cost-to-income ratio % - FY2024AB67
Cost-to-income ratio % - FY2025AC67
Cost-to-income ratio % - FY2026AD67
Gross NPA ratio % - FY2024AB68
Gross NPA ratio % - FY2025AC68
Gross NPA ratio % - FY2026AD68
Net NPA ratio % - FY2024AB69
Net NPA ratio % - FY2025AC69
Net NPA ratio % - FY2026AD69
CET 1 ratio % - FY2024AB70
CET 1 ratio % - FY2025AC70
CET 1 ratio % - FY2026AD70
Total capital adequacy ratio % - FY2024AB71
Total capital adequacy ratio % - FY2025AC71
Total capital adequacy ratio % - FY2026AD71
Deposit growth % YoY - FY2024AB72
Deposit growth % YoY - FY2025AC72
Deposit growth % YoY - FY2026AD72
Advances growth % YoY - FY2024AB73
Advances growth % YoY - FY2025AC73
Advances growth % YoY - FY2026AD73
CASA ratio % - FY2024AB74
CASA ratio % - FY2025AC74
CASA ratio % - FY2026AD74
Edits write to the Excel master; every dependent figure, table and chart input recalculates.
Revenue modelIncome statementBalance sheetCash flowScenariosDCF inputs editable input estimate years Expand
HDFC Bank Limited - Valuation Inputs (prepared for a later valuation stage) — INR billion unless stated | NO VALUATION IS PERFORMED IN THIS ENGAGEMENT | Bank valuation inputs: distributable earnings under a CET 1 constraint, cost of equity, capital path
FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030EFY2031E
EARNINGS AND DIVIDEND CAPACITY
Net profit for the year608.12673.47746.71774.11904.141,0771,2261,359
Dividends declared for the year-138.15-167.80-238.05-247.36-279.36-319.39-359.72-400.35
Retained earnings469.97505.68508.66526.75624.78758.11866.55958.64
Dividend payout ratio %22.72%24.92%31.88%31.95%30.9%29.64%29.33%29.46%
Return on average net worth %14.03%13.08%13.8%14.76%15%14.86%
Sustainable growth (RoE x retention rate) %9.56%8.9%9.54%10.38%10.6%10.48%
CAPITAL PATH AND SURPLUS CAPITAL
Net worth4,4025,0145,6296,2116,8937,7108,6379,659
CET 1 capital4,0224,5825,1415,6526,2727,0167,8608,790
Risk-weighted assets24,68026,60029,74133,50437,15641,42646,08551,087
CET 1 ratio %16.3%17.23%17.28%16.87%16.88%16.94%17.06%17.2%
Target operating CET 1 ratio % (driver)13%13%13%13%13%13%13%13%
CET 1 capital required at the target ratio3,2083,4583,8664,3564,8305,3855,9916,641
Surplus CET 1 capital over the target813.881,1241,2741,2961,4421,6301,8692,148
Surplus CET 1 per share (INR)57.4473.6982.9883.8592.91104.64119.49136.83
Distributable earnings (net profit less CET 1 needed for RWA growth)338.36284.94429.43522.30620.63708.72
Book value per share (INR)289.75327.63365.68401.73444.11494.84552.25615.21
Earnings per share (INR)42.9244.1548.6250.0758.2669.1678.4186.56
COST OF EQUITY BUILD (inputs only)
Risk-free rate - India 10-year government security %6.8%
Equity risk premium - India %6.5%
Beta (levered, versus Nifty 50)0.95
Size and liquidity adjustment %0%
COST OF EQUITY %12.97%
Terminal growth rate %6%
Implied justified price to book (RoE less g) / (Ke less g)1.27
MARKET DATA
Share price (INR, NSE close 28 August 2026)720.30
Shares outstanding (m, as at 30 June 2026)15,401
USD / INR (29 August 2026)95.38
Market capitalisation (INR bn)11,094
Market capitalisation (USD bn)116.31
Price to book, FY2026A (x)1.97
Price to earnings, FY2026A (x)14.81
Price to book, FY2027E (x)1.79
Price to earnings, FY2027E (x)14.39
Dividend yield, FY2027E %2.22%
SECTOR AND PEER REFERENCE
RBI policy repo rate %5.25%
Cash reserve ratio % of NDTL3%
Statutory liquidity ratio % of NDTL18%
System credit growth, FY2026 % YoY14.5%
System deposit growth, FY2026 % YoY11.5%
System credit-deposit ratio (31 January 2026) %82.3%
System net interest margin, FY2026 %3.3%
System return on assets, FY2026 %1.3%
System return on equity, FY2026 %12.6%
System gross NPA ratio, March 2026 %1.8%
India real GDP growth, FY2027E %6.6%
India CPI inflation, FY2027E %5.1%
Peer benchmarksICICI BankAxis BankHDFC Bank
PeriodFY2026Q1 FY2027Q1 FY2027
Net interest margin %4.32%3.46%3.26%
Return on assets %2.23%1.51%1.85%
Return on equity %16.05%14.16%13.8%
Cost-to-income ratio %40.2%45.5%39.2%
Gross NPA ratio %1.4%1.28%1.17%
Net NPA ratio %0.33%0.39%0.4%
CET 1 ratio %16.35%14.64%17.4%
Total capital adequacy ratio %17.18%16.67%19.6%
Deposit growth % YoY11.4%18%14.7%
Advances growth % YoY15.8%19%15.4%
CASA ratio %38.6%38%32.3%
NO VALUATION IS PERFORMED. Per the model-build contract this is a model-only engagement: the deliverable is the workbook. The inputs above are prepared so that a later valuation stage can run a dividend discount or excess-return model, a justified price-to-book, and trading comparables without rebuilding anything. The cost-of-equity components, the target CET 1 ratio and the terminal growth rate are placeholders for that stage, not house views.
For a bank the appropriate free cash flow is the earnings that can be distributed while holding the target CET 1 ratio, shown on row 23, not an unlevered free cash flow. Row 34 shows the justified price-to-book implied by the terminal-year return on equity, the cost of equity and the terminal growth rate; it is a diagnostic, not a price target.
Market data as at the close on 28 August 2026 (NSE). HDFC Bank was at its 52-week closing low of INR 711.00 on 27 August 2026, having underperformed the Nifty Bank index by 31.5 percentage points over one year and 65.0 points over five years.