Assumptions blue workbook inputs
Revenue modelIncome statementBalance sheetCash flowScenariosDCF inputs editable input estimate years Expand
| HDFC Bank Limited - Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios (FY2031E outcomes) | |||
| INR billion | self-contained engine run off the FY2026A audited base | Base case reproduces the full model | Blue = driver assumption (editable) | |||
| Bull | Base | Bear | |
| DRIVER ASSUMPTIONS (FY2027E - FY2031E) | |||
| Deposit growth, CAGR FY2027E-FY2031E % | 14% | 12.1% | 9.5% |
| Loan-to-deposit ratio, FY2031E % | 95% | 93% | 90% |
| Investments as % of deposits, FY2031E | 28% | 28.5% | 30% |
| Net interest margin on average earning assets, FY2031E % | 3.9% | 3.64% | 3.25% |
| Fee and other core income growth, CAGR % | 13.5% | 11.2% | 8% |
| Cost-to-income ratio, FY2031E % | 32.5% | 34.7% | 38.5% |
| Credit cost, FY2031E (bps on average gross advances) | 40 | 55 | 110 |
| Standard-asset and other provisions, FY2031E | 22 | 29 | 55 |
| Effective tax rate % | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Weighted average shares, FY2031E (m) | 15,700 | 15,700 | 15,700 |
| Dividend payout ratio % | 28% | 29.5% | 32% |
| RWA density (RWA / total assets) % | 67% | 68% | 70% |
| CET 1 capital as % of net worth | 91% | 91% | 90.5% |
| FY2031E OUTCOMES | |||
| Deposits, FY2031E | 59,789 | 54,970 | 48,884 |
| Advances, net, FY2031E | 56,799 | 51,122 | 43,996 |
| Investments, FY2031E | 16,741 | 15,666 | 14,665 |
| Total earning assets, FY2031E | 75,394 | 68,492 | 60,176 |
| Average earning assets, FY2031E | 70,764 | 64,796 | 57,566 |
| Net interest income, FY2031E | 2,760 | 2,359 | 1,871 |
| Core non-interest income, FY2031E | 1,005 | 907.16 | 783.93 |
| Net revenue, FY2031E | 3,765 | 3,266 | 2,655 |
| Operating expenses, FY2031E | 1,224 | 1,133 | 1,022 |
| Pre-provision operating profit, FY2031E | 2,541 | 2,133 | 1,633 |
| Gross advances, FY2031E | 57,242 | 51,520 | 44,339 |
| Provisions and contingencies, FY2031E | 250.97 | 312.36 | 542.72 |
| Profit before tax, FY2031E | 2,290 | 1,820 | 1,090 |
| NET PROFIT, FY2031E | 1,729 | 1,374 | 822.95 |
| Earnings per share, FY2031E (INR) | 110.14 | 87.53 | 52.42 |
| Total assets, FY2031E (approx., earning assets / 0.925) | 81,507 | 74,046 | 65,055 |
| Return on total assets, FY2031E % | 2.12% | 1.86% | 1.26% |
| Net worth, FY2031E (retained-earnings roll-forward) | 10,817 | 9,731 | 8,123 |
| Return on net worth, FY2031E % | 15.99% | 14.12% | 10.13% |
| Book value per share, FY2031E (INR) | 688.97 | 619.84 | 517.40 |
| CET 1 ratio, FY2031E % | 18.02% | 17.59% | 16.14% |
| Net profit CAGR, FY2026A to FY2031E % | 18.29% | 12.97% | 1.96% |
| Net profit versus base case % | 25.83% | 0% | -40.12% |
| SCENARIO RATIONALE | |||
| BULL - deposit growth holds at the 14% run-rate seen in Q1 FY2027 and the loan-to-deposit ratio is held near 95%; the cash reserve ratio cut to 3.0% and the run-off of legacy eHDFC borrowings at 7.8% lift the margin to 3.90%; operating leverage takes cost-to-income to 32.5%; credit costs stay at the current 40bps through the ECL transition. | |||
| BASE - deposit growth decelerates from 13.5% to 11.0%; the loan-to-deposit ratio drifts down from 95.0% to 93.0% as management continues to rebuild the deposit-funded balance sheet; margin recovers from the 3.34% FY2027E trough to 3.64% as deposits reprice and wholesale funding costs fall; cost-to-income falls to 34.7%; credit cost normalises to 55bps with a 60bps step in FY2028E on RBI expected-credit-loss adoption. | |||
| BEAR - a deposit war and the continuing shift from CASA into term deposits caps deposit growth at 9.5% and forces the loan-to-deposit ratio down to 90%; margin compresses to 3.25% as funding costs reprice faster than the floating-rate loan book; cost-to-income stalls at 38.5%; the unsecured retail and commercial book seasons and credit cost doubles to 110bps, with the ECL transition front-loading it. | |||
| The scenario engine is a reduced-form model run off the FY2026A audited base. It is not the full three-statement model. Base-case outputs are calibrated to the detailed model on the other tabs; small differences arise because this engine approximates total assets and the net worth roll-forward. | |||
| FY2026A audited base: deposits INR 31,052.5bn, advances INR 29,371.7bn, earning assets INR 39,191.5bn, net interest income INR 1,286.9bn, core non-interest income INR 533.5bn (reported INR 625.3bn less the INR 91.8bn HDB Financial Services gain), net profit INR 746.7bn, net worth INR 5,629.0bn. |