Dreams AI Associate

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Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba)

Bahrain Bourse: ALBH · Initiation of coverage

Rating

Over-Weight

Fair value

BHD 1.150

Analyst

S. Rahman

Status

published

Stage 1 · Company research

Live generation complete: ALBH_Research_Document_2026-08-28.md

accepted

Associate summary: Live generation complete: ALBH_Research_Document_2026-08-28.md

# COMPANY RESEARCH DOCUMENT: Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba)

**Ticker:** BHB: ALBH (Bahrain Bourse); ALBH:LI (London Stock Exchange, GDR)
**Sector:** Materials / Primary Aluminium
**Peer set (as instructed):** SABIC (2010.SR), Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA, unlisted), Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA)
**Research date:** 28 August 2026
**Workflow stage:** Task 1 of 5, initiating-coverage skill
**Governing contract:** dreams-associate/contracts/ic-report-structure.json v1.0.0
**Prepared for:** Al Ramz Investment Research

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## Contract compliance notes

This document is the Task 1 qualitative research deliverable. It is an input, not a report section. Per the ic-report-structure contract, its content feeds the following generated sections downstream:

| This document, section | Feeds contract section | Contract section id |
|---|---|---|
| 6. Industry Overview; 8. Market Opportunity | The why-this-sector-why-now chapter | industry_theme (order 3) |
| 1. Company Overview; 2. History; 3. Management; 4. Products; 5. Customers and GTM | Franchise and positioning chapter | company_deep_dive (order 4) |
| 7. Competitive Landscape; 10. Differentiator proposal | Flexible analytical deep-dive | differentiator_chapter (order 6) |
| 9. Risk Assessment | Named risks table | key_risks (order 8) |

Three contract rules bind this document directly:

1. **Number binding.** Every numeric value carries an inline source and date. Where a figure derives from a company disclosure it is tagged to the specific document; where it derives from market data it is tagged to the vendor and quote date. No unbound numbers appear below.
2. **Conflicts are surfaced, not smoothed.** Section 11 lists every material data conflict encountered, with both readings preserved. Individual conflicts are also flagged in-line at the point of use.
3. **House rating rule (+/-15%).** No rating is proposed here. Rating assignment occurs at Task 3 against the house thresholds (Over-Weight above +15% upside to fair value, Under-Weight below -15% downside, Equal-Weight in between). Section 12 flags the specific inputs Tasks 2 and 3 will need, including two that are currently undeterminable from public sources.

A note on the reporting environment. Alba's public disclosure through H1 2026 is materially less complete than in prior years. The company has published quarterly profit, EPS, production, sales volume, equity and total assets, but has not published quarterly revenue, direct cost bridges, capex, net debt or free cash flow for Q1 or Q2 2026, all of which it did publish for FY2025. Where a metric is unavailable for 2026 this document says so rather than estimating it.

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## TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Company Overview
2. Company History
3. Management Team and Governance
4. Products and Services
5. Customers and Go-to-Market
6. Industry Overview
7. Competitive Landscape
8. Market Opportunity (TAM)
9. Risk Assessment
10. Proposed differentiator chapter (analyst confirmation required)
11. Data conflicts register
12. Handoff notes to Tasks 2 and 3
13. Data sources

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# 1. COMPANY OVERVIEW

Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C., trading as Alba, is a single-site primary aluminium smelter at Askar on the south-eastern coast of Bahrain. It is the largest aluminium smelter in the world on one site, and on 2025 volumes the largest smelter outside China. The business is conceptually simple and operationally unforgiving. Alba buys alumina, calcined petroleum coke, liquid pitch and aluminium fluoride, buys natural gas, converts them into molten aluminium through electrolysis across six reduction lines, and casts that metal into ingots, billets, slabs and foundry alloys, or delivers it as liquid metal by road to customers inside Bahrain. Value is created in the spread between the London Metal Exchange price plus a regional physical premium on the revenue side, and alumina, carbon and power on the cost side.

Scale first. Alba produced 1,623,139 metric tonnes of net finished aluminium in 2025, an all-time record and 878 tonnes above the 1,622,261 tonnes produced in 2024 (Alba FY2025 results press release, 17 February 2026). Sales volume was 1,613,360 tonnes, up 0.11% year on year (same source). The company describes its nameplate as "plus-1.623 million metric tonnes per annum" (Alba corporate profile page, accessed 28 August 2026), which is a description of achieved output rather than a design capacity number, and readers should treat it as such.

Financially, 2025 was the strongest year in the company's history on almost every measure. Revenue was US$4,731 million, up from US$4,313 million in 2024, a 9.7% increase (Alba FY2025 Investor Relations presentation, slide 25, filed with Bahrain Bourse 19 February 2026). EBITDA was US$1,078 million against US$939 million, up 14.8%, at a 22.8% margin versus 21.8% in 2024 (same source; Alba rounds these to 23% and 22% on slide 23). Net profit attributable to shareholders was BD218.7 million, or US$581.6 million, up 18.5% from BD184.5 million (US$490.8 million) in 2024 (Alba FY2025 results press release, 17 February 2026). Basic and diluted earnings per share were 154 fils versus 130 fils. Adjusted profit, excluding unrealised derivative movements, was US$584 million versus US$487 million (IR presentation slide 25).

The cash story is stronger still and is the single most important fact about Alba's balance sheet as at the start of 2026. Cash flow from operations was US$1,100 million in 2025 against capital expenditure of US$284 million, producing free cash flow of US$765 million, up 34% from US$569 million (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slides 24 and 33). Net debt fell to US$564 million from US$1,103 million in 2024, and from US$2,218 million at the 2021 peak. Cash on hand rose to US$409 million from US$303 million. Net debt to EBITDA closed 2025 at 0.52 times, against 1.17 times in 2024 and 1.36 times in 2021 (IR presentation slide 18). Total equity was BD2,085.6 million (US$5,546.8 million), up 8.4%, and total assets were BD2,623.3 million (US$6,976.8 million), down 1.9% (FY2025 press release, 17 February 2026).

Alba distributes on a stated policy of a 35% payout ratio, confirmed twice on the FY2025 earnings call by CFO Ricardo Santana and endorsed by CEO Ali Al Baqali as "a fair payout ratio" by smelting industry benchmarks (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). The final 2025 dividend was 43.51 fils per share, BD61,612,237 or US$163,862,332, payable 8 April 2026 (FY2025 press release, 17 February 2026).

Then 2026 happened. The company's operating environment changed discontinuously in the first quarter, and the resulting picture is one of collapsing volumes against surging prices. In March 2026 Alba began a controlled shutdown of Reduction Lines 1, 2 and 3, approximately 19% of its 1.62 million tonne annual capacity, in response to disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that constrained both inbound alumina and outbound metal (Alba announcement, "Alba Initiates a Controlled and Safe Shutdown of Reduction Lines 1, 2 and 3"; Bloomberg, "Bahrain Starts Output Cuts at World's Top Aluminum Smelter", 15 March 2026). On 28 March 2026 the Askar facility was struck directly in an Iranian attack. Alba's own statement, issued 29 March 2026, confirmed that "2 of Alba's employees sustained minor injuries" and that the company was "assessing the extent of the damage to its facilities" (Alba announcement, 29 March 2026). Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted both Alba and EGA in retaliation for attacks on Iranian steel plants (alcircle, 29 March 2026; S&P Global Commodity Insights factbox, 30 March 2026; CNBC, 29 March 2026).

The volume consequence is severe. Q1 2026 net finished production was 339,734 tonnes, down 14% year on year, and sales were 312,563 tonnes, down 17% (Alba Q1 2026 results release, April 2026). Q2 2026 net finished production was 155,469 tonnes, down 61% year on year, and sales were 280,799 tonnes, down 32% (Alba Q2 and H1 2026 results release, July 2026). Annualising Q2 output gives roughly 622,000 tonnes, approximately 38% of the 2025 run rate.

The price consequence runs the other way, and harder. LME cash averaged US$3,195 per tonne in Q1 2026, up 22% year on year, and US$3,576 per tonne in Q2 2026, up 46% (Alba Q1 and Q2 2026 results releases). The metal reached US$3,855 per tonne on 2 June 2026 and was trading around US$3,337 per tonne on 11 August 2026 (Shanghai Metals Market, 11 August 2026; alcircle H2 2026 price outlook, August 2026). LME inventories fell to about 250,000 tonnes by mid-2026, the lowest since November 1990 (Shanghai Metals Market, August 2026).

Price beat volume, decisively. H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders was BD140.2 million (US$372.8 million), up 228% on H1 2025's BD42.7 million (US$113.5 million), with EPS of 99 fils against 30 fils (Alba Q2 and H1 2026 results release, July 2026). Q2 2026 EBITDA was US$295 million (Chairman's statement in the same release). Total assets at 30 June 2026 were BD2,867.2 million (US$7,625.6 million), up 9% since year-end, and equity was BD2,163.5 million (US$5,753.9 million), up 4%.

Alba has also, in the middle of this, made the largest acquisition in its history. On 6 May 2026 it signed a share purchase agreement to acquire 100% of Aluminium Dunkerque, the European Union's largest primary aluminium smelter, from American Industrial Partners for approximately US$2.2 billion, to be "fully financed by a consortium of Alba's banking partners" (Alba announcement, "Alba Acquires Aluminium Dunkerque"; Alba Q1 2026 results release, April 2026). Bpifrance, the French state investment bank, is to take a 6% stake for EUR 100 million with one board seat on the holding company (same Alba announcement). Dunkerque produces approximately 300,000 tonnes per annum (same source). The transaction remains subject to French foreign direct investment clearance and EU regulatory approval and had not closed as at the H1 2026 disclosure (Alba Q2 and H1 2026 results release, July 2026).

Ownership is concentrated and strategic. Bahrain Mumtalakat Holding Company, the sovereign wealth fund of the Kingdom of Bahrain, holds 69.38%. Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) holds 20.62%, acquired from SABIC and effective 19 February 2025. Free float is 10%, unchanged since the November 2010 IPO (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 40).

Shares outstanding are approximately 1.42 billion, and the shares last traded at BHD 0.878, capitalising the company at BHD 1.24 billion (Investing.com ALBH quote page, accessed 28 August 2026), corroborated at US$3.30 billion for August 2026 by companiesmarketcap (accessed 28 August 2026). Trailing twelve month EPS is BHD 0.2233, putting the shares on 3.94 times trailing earnings (Investing.com, accessed 28 August 2026). That trailing EPS reconciles exactly to disclosure: H2 2025 EPS of 124 fils (FY 154 less H1 30) plus H1 2026 EPS of 99 fils equals 223 fils. The 52-week range is BHD 0.715 to BHD 1.150 (Investing.com, accessed 28 August 2026). The shares closed 2025 at BHD 1.105 (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 40). The stock is therefore down approximately 21% from the 2025 close while trailing earnings per share have risen 45%, which is the central valuation tension this coverage must resolve at Task 3.

Headcount was 4,347 at end-2025, comprising 3,142 direct employees and 1,205 contractors, against 4,379 in 2024 (3,179 plus 1,200) (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 17). The workforce is 87.1% Bahraini (Alba corporate profile, accessed 28 August 2026). The company serves over 290 customers globally through sales offices in Zug, Switzerland and Singapore, and a subsidiary in Atlanta, United States (same source). Approximately 70% of Alba's product is exported (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 15).

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# 2. COMPANY HISTORY

Alba is a creature of state industrial policy, and understanding that is essential to understanding the equity. Bahrain has no bauxite, no alumina refining, and until the 1970s no heavy industry of consequence. What it had was associated natural gas and a government looking for a use for it that would create an industrial base and employment. The answer was an aluminium smelter, an industry in which roughly one third of cash cost is electricity and which therefore migrates to cheap stranded energy.

The company was incorporated by Amiri decree on 9 August 1968 (Wikipedia, Aluminium Bahrain, accessed 28 August 2026, sourcing company records). The foundation stone was laid by Amir Shaikh Isa bin Salman Al Khalifa on 6 January 1969. Commercial operations began in May 1971 with an initial capacity of 120,000 tonnes per annum, making Alba the first aluminium smelter in the Middle East (same source). That first-mover position matters commercially even now. The entire GCC aluminium industry, and much of the region's downstream fabrication base, descends from the Bahraini template of monetising gas through metal.

The expansion history is a sequence of reduction line additions, each paired with new captive power generation:

- **1981:** Reduction Line 3 commissioned.
- **1992:** Reduction Line 4 and Power Station 3 added.
- **2002:** Coke calciner completed, bringing a critical carbon input in-house.
- **2005:** Reduction Line 5 brought online, taking total capacity above 830,000 tonnes per annum.
- **November 2019:** Line 6 inaugurated by King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa on 24 November 2019, adding 540,000 tonnes and lifting capacity above 1.5 million tonnes per annum.

(All milestones: Wikipedia, Aluminium Bahrain, accessed 28 August 2026; Line 6 capacity and inauguration corroborated by Bechtel project page "Alba Potline 6", accessed 28 August 2026.)

Line 6 is the defining project of the modern company and the source of both its scale advantage and, for five years, its leverage. It was engineered by Bechtel and financed with approximately US$3 billion of debt, a financing that Ali Al Baqali, then in executive supply and finance roles, was instrumental in securing (Forbes Middle East CEO profile, 2024; Alba leadership page, accessed 28 August 2026). Completion of Line 6 made Alba the world's largest smelter on a single site. It also took net debt to US$2,218 million by 2021 (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 18). The deleveraging from that peak to US$564 million at end-2025 is the central financial narrative of the 2021 to 2025 period and is what gives the company the balance sheet capacity it is now deploying on Dunkerque.

Two corporate events sit outside the operational timeline but define the governance history.

The first is the Alcoa litigation. In February 2008 Alba filed a civil complaint against Alcoa in the Western District of Pennsylvania, alleging that Alcoa had bribed Alba officials and overcharged Alba for raw materials. The scheme, as later established, involved an Alcoa subsidiary securing a long-term supply contract by routing more than 1.5 million tonnes of alumina through offshore shell companies controlled by a third-party consultant, who paid bribes to Bahraini officials from commissions and marked-up sales proceeds. In October 2012 Alcoa agreed, without admitting liability, to pay Alba US$85 million in cash in two equal instalments (Howmet/Alcoa press release, "Alcoa and Alba Resolve Civil Litigation", 9 October 2012; Reuters via CNBC, 9 October 2012). In January 2014 Alcoa pleaded guilty to one count of violating the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and settled with the Department of Justice and the SEC for US$384 million (Lexology FCPA analysis; World Bank StAR asset recovery database entry ARW-14). Alba was the plaintiff and victim, not the defendant, and the episode has been followed by a materially strengthened governance and procurement framework. It is nonetheless the reason a diligence process on this company must look carefully at related-party and long-term supply arrangements. It is also, with a certain irony, the counterparty history behind the current relationship. Alcoa is once again Alba's largest third-party alumina supplier.

The second is the November 2010 IPO and dual listing. Alba listed on the Bahrain Bourse and, via global depositary receipts, on the London Stock Exchange, floating 10% (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 40; Wikipedia, accessed 28 August 2026). The float has not been increased since. On the FY2025 call, asked directly about a potential Saudi cross-listing or free float increase, Al Baqali said "this is a shareholders' matter, actually. But what we are doing, it's already in our radar. But the final call for the shareholders" (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). That is the closest thing to an on-the-record acknowledgement that the question is live.

Recent developments, running from 2024 through August 2026, are dense and consequential:

- **23 January 2024:** Alba signed a 10-year natural gas supply agreement with Bapco Upstream, with a fixed price of US$4.00 per MMBTU for the first five-year period (Alba announcement, "Alba Inks 10-Year Gas Supply Deal with Bapco Energies", 23 January 2024; SaudiGulf Projects, January 2024). Note a discrepancy against the Q1 2026 disclosure of US$4.5 per MMBTU. See Section 11, conflict C6.
- **15 August 2024:** Ricardo Fontes Santana joined as Chief Financial Officer (Alba announcement; alcircle, 2024).
- **14 October 2024:** Alcoa announced a 10-year alumina supply contract extension with Alba covering up to 16.5 million tonnes of smelter-grade alumina, primarily from Western Australia, running from 2026 to 2035, making Alcoa Alba's largest third-party alumina supplier (Alcoa press release, 14 October 2024; Businesswire, 14 October 2024).
- **Late 2024:** Power Station 5 Block 4, a 680.9 MW combined-cycle gas turbine block, entered service, lifting PS5 capacity to 2,481 MW and reducing Alba's greenhouse gas intensity by approximately 0.5 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of aluminium (NS Energy project page, accessed 28 August 2026; Alba ESG journey slide, FY2025 IR presentation slide 39). The project was named Power Generation Project of the Year, Bahrain, at the 2025 MEED Project Awards.
- **January 2025:** Alba and Ma'aden terminated merger discussions (AGBI, January 2025).
- **17 to 19 February 2025:** Ma'aden completed the acquisition of SABIC's entire 20.62% stake, 292.8 million ordinary shares, for BD363.08 million (SAR 3.61 billion), and was announced as a major Alba shareholder effective 19 February 2025 (Argaam, February 2025; Alba announcement, "Alba Announces Ma'aden as a Major Shareholder"). This is why SABIC appears in the peer set as a former strategic holder rather than a current one.
- **May 2025:** Launch of EternAl-AC, extending the EternAl low-carbon range with a five-tier verified carbon-offset structure, AC0 through AC4, representing 0 to 4 tonnes CO2e per tonne of aluminium (alcircle, May 2025; Sahm Capital, 19 May 2025).
- **19 December 2025:** A power rectifier fire at an R42 transformer. CEO Al Baqali confirmed on the FY2025 call that it "affected our production in December" but that the annual target was still met, and that the loss "is already insured and covered by insurance fully", with insurance recoveries expected during 2026 (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026).
- **March 2026:** Controlled shutdown of Lines 1 to 3, and declaration of force majeure. Sources conflict on the exact start date. See Section 11, conflict C4.
- **28 March 2026:** Iranian attack on the Askar facility. Two employees sustained minor injuries (Alba announcement, 29 March 2026).
- **2 March to 6 May 2026:** Exclusive agreement with American Industrial Partners announced 2 March 2026; share purchase agreement for Aluminium Dunkerque signed 6 May 2026 (American Industrial Partners press release, 2 March 2026; Alba Q1 2026 results release, April 2026).
- **June 2026:** Bpifrance co-investment of EUR 100 million for 6% announced (Alba announcement; Alba Q2 and H1 2026 results release, July 2026).
- **August 2026:** Alba reported 49 million safe working hours without a lost-time injury (Alba corporate profile, accessed 28 August 2026), up from 44 million reached on 19 February 2026 (FY2025 press release).
- **September 2026 (scheduled):** Alba Daiki Sustainable Solutions aluminium dross processing plant due to commence operations (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 30).

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# 3. MANAGEMENT TEAM AND GOVERNANCE

## Ali Al Baqali, Chief Executive Officer

Ali Al Baqali has been Chief Executive Officer since 13 February 2020 and is the defining internal appointment in the company's modern history. He joined Alba as a Purchasing Officer in 1998 and rose through Manager for Procurement (2010), Chief Financial Officer (2013), Deputy Chief Executive Officer and Chief Supply Chain Officer (2017), and Acting CEO (2019) before being confirmed in the top role (Alba leadership page, accessed 28 August 2026; Forbes Middle East Top CEOs listings 2022 through 2025). By 2026 that is a 28-year tenure at a single employer, entirely within one asset, which is unusual for a company of this scale and which cuts both ways for an investor. It buys deep operational knowledge of six reduction lines and five power stations. It does not bring outside-in perspective, and Alba is now buying a smelter in northern France.

Al Baqali holds a B.Sc. in Accounting and two Executive MBAs, and is a Ph.D. candidate researching "The Business and Human Factors of Industry 4.0" (Forbes Middle East profile; Alba leadership page, accessed 28 August 2026). The finance and procurement background rather than an engineering one shapes how he runs the company. His signature initiative is e-Al Hassalah, a structured cost and efficiency programme powered by Lean Six Sigma and artificial intelligence tooling, which delivered US$59.57 million of savings in 2024 and US$67.32 million in 2025 against a US$60 million target, for a cumulative US$126.89 million (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 14). His most consequential earlier contribution was securing the approximately US$3 billion financing for Line 6, and formulating the raw material sourcing strategy that underpins it (Forbes Middle East profile; Alba leadership page).

His 2026 objectives, set out publicly at the annual Majlis and repeated on the FY2025 call, are four: maintain the British Safety Council five-star rating and a third consecutive year without lost-time injury; a "Think Global" cultural programme explicitly aimed at moving Alba's mindset beyond a domestic industrial asset; the final year of e-Al Hassalah; and increasing the number of women working in the potlines and operating areas, which he framed as requiring "a lot of things in order to make the foundation right" (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). The "Think Global" objective, set in February 2026, reads very differently in hindsight given the Dunkerque agreement signed in May.

His judgement on the market is worth recording because it was tested almost immediately. On the February 2026 call, against a CRU consensus of US$2,650 to US$2,750 per tonne for 2026, he said "my personal opinion, I think the price will be hold above US$3,000 or between US$2,900 till quarter three of this year" and expected Q4 softening (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). Actual Q1 was US$3,195 and Q2 was US$3,576 (Alba Q1 and Q2 2026 releases). He was directionally right and conservative, for reasons nobody forecast.

## Ricardo Fontes Santana, Chief Financial Officer

Ricardo Fontes Santana became CFO on 15 August 2024 and is the counterweight to Al Baqali's institutional tenure. He brings over 25 years of global experience across metals, mining and energy, with prior roles at Sohar Aluminium (as CFO, immediately preceding Alba, and subsequently as a non-executive director), South32, BHP Billiton, Essilor and Shell, spanning Brazil, Australia, Singapore, the Netherlands, Portugal and Oman (Alba announcement, "Alba Appoints Seasoned Finance Leader Ricardo Fontes Santana as Chief Financial Officer", 2024; alcircle, 2024; The Corporate Treasurer, 2024). He holds an MBA in Finance and Controlling from Universidade Federal Fluminense, with executive education at Cambridge Judge Business School and Kellogg School of Management, and is certified in Investor Relations by the UK IR Society (same sources).

The Sohar Aluminium and South32 background is directly relevant. Sohar is a 375,000 tonne Omani smelter, giving him GCC gas-powered smelting economics; South32 gives him listed-company capital allocation discipline and a marketing organisation. The IR Society certification shows in the disclosure quality of the FY2025 presentation, which contains full metal sales, direct cost, EBITDA and cash flow bridges of a standard well above regional norms.

His public positions are consistent and quantified. On dividends he has twice stated a 35% payout ratio and defended it against three separate questions on the FY2025 call pressing for a special dividend or higher frequency, answering "we have some projects in front of us. We'll see how the year unfolds. But at this stage, no projections of any extra details" (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). On the balance sheet he framed the choice explicitly as deleveraging versus distribution, conditional on the New Replacement Line decision. On the alumina cost profile he disclosed that the lag from purchase price to P&L is "around three months, four months, depending on the profile of the sales", which is a modelling input of direct value at Task 2. On the US tariff position he quantified a net positive of "above US$20 million" for the year from the Atlanta entity, because higher Midwest premiums more than offset the tariff cost, against an US$80 million tariff-related inventory absorption charge inside the direct cost bridge (same transcript; corroborated by IR presentation slide 22).

## Khalid Al Rumaihi, Chairman of the Board

His Excellency Khalid Al Rumaihi chairs the Alba board and is the link between the company and its 69.38% shareholder. He served as Chief Executive Officer of Bahrain Mumtalakat Holding Company from September 2019 to 2023, overseeing the fund's strategic transformation, and remains a member of the Mumtalakat board (Mumtalakat press release; Mumtalakat board page; The National, 2019). He previously served as Chief Executive of the Bahrain Economic Development Board, responsible for inward investment into the Kingdom. Before that he spent over ten years at Investcorp as a Managing Director, a member of the Management Committee and head of the Institutional Placement Team covering Gulf clients, preceded by nine years at J.P. Morgan as head of its private client group in the Gulf (MarketScreener business leader profile; Milken Institute speaker profile). He also serves on the boards of the Bahrain Economic Development Board and Bapco Energies, and is Executive Chairman of Amriya Group. He holds a Master's in Public Policy specialising in Economic Development from Harvard University and a B.S. in Foreign Service from Georgetown University.

The composition of that CV matters. A chairman drawn from private equity placement and sovereign wealth rather than from metals is well suited to a company whose defining question in 2026 is capital allocation across a EUR 1.9 billion cross-border acquisition, a potential multi-billion dollar replacement line, deleveraging and dividends. His Bapco Energies board seat sits on the other side of Alba's ten-year gas supply agreement, which is a related-party consideration worth noting even though the contract predates nothing unusual and the terms are disclosed.

## Dr. Abdulla Habib Ahmed Ali, Chief Operations Officer

Dr. Abdulla Habib Ahmed Ali serves as Chief Operations Officer, carrying responsibility for the six reduction lines, the casthouses and the calciner (Alba leadership page, accessed 28 August 2026). The operations function is where the 2026 story is being decided: the controlled shutdown of Lines 1 to 3 in March 2026 was executed as a "controlled and safe shutdown" rather than an uncontrolled freeze, and Alba subsequently undertook "structured asset care and maintenance at the affected lines, covering equipment upkeep, cleaning and housekeeping to optimise operational integrity for a safe restart of operations once supply conditions stabilise" (Alba announcement on the shutdown; Alba Q2 and H1 2026 results release, July 2026). That distinction is worth more than it sounds. An uncontrolled potline freeze can require the full replacement of cathode linings and can put a line out for a year or more; a controlled shutdown with maintained asset care preserves the option to restart on a much shorter timeline. Alba has not published a restart schedule.

The operations organisation delivered three consecutive years without a lost-time injury through 2025, took total injuries from 49 in 2020 to 9 in 2025 and lost-time injuries from 4 to zero, and became the first aluminium smelter in the world to earn the British Safety Council five-star rating (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slides 11 and 12). Cumulative safe hours without lost-time injury reached 44 million on 19 February 2026 and 49 million by August 2026 (FY2025 press release; Alba corporate profile, accessed 28 August 2026). Public biographical detail on Dr. Abdulla Habib beyond title and function is limited, which is a gap this coverage should close through investor relations before Task 5.

## Wider executive team and board

The executive committee comprises eight officers: Ali Al Baqali (CEO), Dr. Abdulla Habib Ahmed Ali (Chief Operations Officer), Amin Sultan (Chief Power Officer), Waleed Tamimi (Chief Supply Officer), Ricardo Fontes Santana (Chief Financial Officer), Hisham Alkooheji (Chief Marketing Officer), Fahad Mohamed Abdulla Danish (Chief Human Resources Officer) and Sohaila Abdul Rahman (Chief Legal and Governance Officer) (Alba leadership page, accessed 28 August 2026). The existence of a dedicated Chief Power Officer at C-suite level is itself informative: Alba runs 3,926 MW of captive generation and treats power as a business line rather than a utility cost (Global Energy Monitor, Aluminium Bahrain power station entry, accessed 28 August 2026). Eline Hilal serves as Director Investor Relations and Insurance, and co-chairs the quarterly webcasts.

The board has ten members: HE Khalid Al Rumaihi (Chairman), Shaikh Isa bin Khalid Al Khalifa, Omar Syed, Rasha Sabkar, Bruce Cox, Roselyne Renel, Ahmed Al Shaikh, Khalid Al Rowais, Riccardo Picca and Armando Martinez (Alba leadership page, accessed 28 August 2026). The presence of international directors with metals and risk backgrounds alongside Bahraini and Saudi representation reflects the shareholder register. With Mumtalakat at 69.38% and Ma'aden at 20.62%, minority holders own 10% and the board is necessarily an instrument of the two strategic holders. That is a governance fact, not a criticism, but it bears directly on the questions minority investors care most about: the free float, a possible Saudi cross-listing, the payout ratio, and whether a Ma'aden combination returns to the agenda after the January 2025 termination of merger discussions (AGBI, January 2025).

Alba is also pursuing an explicit Bahrainisation and succession agenda, with 87.1% of the workforce Bahraini and a stream of national managerial promotions announced during 2026, including S. Abbas S. Baqer to Manager Calciner and Marine and Ali Aseeri to Manager Engineering and Projects (Alba corporate profile, accessed 28 August 2026; Zawya press release, "Alba reinforces Bahrainisation with key managerial appointments"; Zawya, "Alba strengthens Bahraini leadership pipeline through strategic succession appointments", 4 March 2026).

Insider ownership by individual executives and directors is not disclosed in the materials reviewed. Executive compensation structure is likewise not publicly disclosed in the sources reviewed. Both should be sourced from the Alba Annual Report 2025 and the AGM materials before Task 5.

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# 4. PRODUCTS AND SERVICES

Alba sells one molecule in six commercial forms, and the mix between them is the principal lever management controls.

**Extrusion ingots (billets).** Cylindrical billets, primarily 6xxx-series alloys, feed extrusion presses producing window frames, curtain walling, structural profiles and automotive components. Alba developed a proprietary 6060.HE billet alloy with the support of the University of Bahrain (alcircle, product development report). Billets carry a conversion premium over LME and are a core value-added product.

**Rolling ingots (slabs).** Rectangular slabs feed rolling mills producing foil, sheet, beverage can stock and automotive body sheet (Alba aluminium products page, accessed 28 August 2026). Slabs are the entry point to the packaging and automotive value chains and command a conversion premium.

**Foundry alloys (Properzi bars).** Cast on Properzi continuous casting and metal treatment systems, foundry alloys serve automotive castings, wheels and engineering components (Alba aluminium products page, accessed 28 August 2026).

**Liquid metal.** Molten aluminium delivered by insulated crucible directly to downstream customers inside Bahrain. This eliminates a casting step for Alba and a remelting step for the customer, saving energy on both sides. It is only possible where the customer is physically adjacent, which makes it structurally unavailable to almost every competitor and is the anchor of Bahrain's downstream cluster (Alba liquid metal page, accessed 28 August 2026).

**High purity metal.** Higher-grade primary metal for specialist applications.

**Standard and T-ingots, and unalloyed P1020 remelt products.** The commodity end of the range: T-ingots, 10 kg and 22.5 kg standard ingots, and 9.7 kg Properzi bars (Alba aluminium products page, accessed 28 August 2026). These are sold at LME plus the regional premium with minimal conversion uplift.

Layered across the physical range is **EternAl**, launched in May 2024, Alba's low-carbon and recycled-content brand. It was extended in May 2025 with **EternAl-AC**, a five-tier structure from AC0 to AC4 representing 0 to 4 tonnes CO2e per tonne of aluminium, in which verified greenhouse gas offsets generated by Alba's own efficiency initiatives are assigned to specific sales orders, giving customers traceable, documented carbon footprints (alcircle, May 2025; Sahm Capital, 19 May 2025; Alba corporate profile, accessed 28 August 2026). The first EternAl customer was Capral Aluminium of Australia (Alba announcement, "Alba Secures Capral Aluminium as First Customer for Groundbreaking EternAl Low-Carbon Aluminium").

The commercial logic of EternAl is the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Alba management were asked directly on the FY2025 call where Alba sits on CBAM and answered candidly that "it's very new in terms of the impacts. We cannot yet do any type of prediction", while asserting "we are very strong in Europe. We have a very skilled team and we are present in Europe and we are very well-positioned to take benefit of this improved CBT" (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). European premiums rose ahead of CBAM's definitive phase, from US$194 per tonne in Q2 2025 to US$313 per tonne in Q4 2025 on the DDP Rotterdam index (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 8), which is the empirical support for that positioning.

**Mix and its economics.** Value-added products accounted for 74% of total shipments in 2025, up two percentage points year on year, with VAP volume of 1,195,788 tonnes, up 3.3% (Alba FY2025 results press release, 17 February 2026). VAP share has moved from 72% to 74% between 2024 and 2025 (IR presentation slide 17). The realised premium above LME rose from US$268 per tonne in 2024 to US$332 per tonne in 2025, up 24%, driven principally by the US Midwest premium (IR presentation slide 21).

The 2025 sales bridge quantifies exactly where the incremental revenue came from. Metal sales rose from US$4,290 million to US$4,731 million, a US$441 million increase, decomposing as LME price US$334 million, premium pricing power US$95 million, product mix US$8 million and volume US$4 million (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 20). In volume terms the bridge shows value-added products up 39 thousand tonnes and liquid metal up 24 thousand tonnes, offset by commodity products down 62 thousand tonnes, for a net gain of 1 thousand tonnes (slide 21). That is the deliberate mix shift: Alba grew the profitable tonnes and shed the cheap ones on flat total volume.

Two-thirds of the 2025 revenue increase was therefore price, roughly a fifth was premium, and only a low single-digit percentage was anything management controlled through mix and volume. This is an important framing for the report. Alba is a competent operator of a price-taking asset, and the reader should not confuse an excellent 2025 result with an excellent 2025 commercial performance. The commercial performance was the 39 thousand tonne VAP shift and the US$67.32 million of e-Al Hassalah savings.

The 2025 product-line split by tonnes sold is disclosed on IR presentation slide 16 as six values: 35.73%, 21.07%, 17.41%, 13.52%, 7.34% and 4.93%, against the labels liquid, billets, foundries, slabs, high purity metal and standard/T-ingots. Note that the label-to-value mapping cannot be established with confidence from the sources available, and the CFO's spoken breakdown on the same call differs materially. This conflict is documented at Section 11, conflict C1, and should be resolved with investor relations before any chart is built at Task 4.

Q2 2026 VAP was 195,891 tonnes, 70% of shipments and down 38% year on year in absolute terms, with Q1 2026 at 222,626 tonnes and 71% (Alba Q1 and Q2 2026 results releases). The VAP percentage has therefore held up far better than the volume, falling only from 74% to 70% to 71% while total tonnes collapsed, which suggests Alba is prioritising its highest-margin contractual customers with the metal it can still produce and ship.

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# 5. CUSTOMERS AND GO-TO-MARKET

Alba serves over 290 customers globally (Alba corporate profile, accessed 28 August 2026). Its route to market is a three-legged structure: a captive domestic cluster taking liquid and cast metal at the gate, a direct export sales organisation running out of Zug and Singapore, and a US subsidiary in Atlanta positioned inside the tariff wall.

**Geographic mix, 2025, by tonnes sold:** Bahrain 30.0%, Europe 26.7%, MENA 16.8%, Americas 15.1%, Asia 11.4% (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 15). Approximately 70% of product is exported.

**The Bahrain cluster.** The single most distinctive feature of Alba's customer base is that nearly a third of its metal never leaves the island. Bahrain's downstream industry was built on Alba's output and exists because of it. Key customers include:

- **Midal Cables**, a manufacturer of aluminium rod, cable and electrical conductors, which is Alba's largest single client and takes over 220,000 tonnes of liquid metal per year (MEED, Alba profile; Composite Power Group, Midal manufacturer page; Alba announcement, "Alba CEO visits Midal Cables, Emphasising strong partnership").
- **Gulf Aluminium Rolling Mill Company (Garmco)**, producing rolled sheet, coil and circles.
- **Bahrain Aluminium Extrusion Company (Balexco)**, producing extruded profiles, coating and fabrication.
- **Bahrain Atomisers International (BAI)**, aluminium powders.
- **Bahrain Alloys Manufacturing Company (BAMCO)** and **Bahrain Welding Wire Products (BWP)**.
- **Aluwheel**, aluminium wheels.

(Sources: Alba liquid metal page, accessed 28 August 2026; US Department of Commerce Bahrain country commercial guide, national industries and petrochemicals chapters; Gulf Industry Online, Alba profile.)

The strategic point is that liquid metal is a genuine, non-replicable moat. A customer that has built its plant around receiving molten metal by road from a smelter three kilometres away cannot switch supplier without rebuilding its melting capability. Switching costs are close to prohibitive. This is why Alba's domestic share is effectively 100% and why liquid metal volume grew 24 thousand tonnes in 2025 even as commodity export tonnes fell 62 thousand (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 21). It is also why the CEO makes a point of visiting Midal.

**Export sales organisation.** Alba sells direct through sales offices in Zug, Switzerland covering Europe and MENA, and Singapore covering Asia, with a subsidiary in Atlanta covering the Americas (Alba corporate profile, accessed 28 August 2026). Zug is the standard location for metals trading desks; Singapore places Alba next to the Asian physical market and the MJP premium negotiation. The Atlanta subsidiary proved its worth in 2025: the CFO disclosed that the US entity delivered a net positive result of "above US$20 million" for the year, because the rise in the Midwest premium more than offset the cost of US tariffs (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). The US Midwest premium rose from US$457 per tonne in Q4 2024 to US$1,870 per tonne in Q4 2025 (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 8), and the CEO stated on the same call that it was "reaching more than US$2,200" by early 2026. That is a fourfold to fivefold move in fourteen months and it is the single largest swing factor in Alba's realised price after LME itself.

**Contract structure and working capital.** Alba's sales are predominantly on term contracts priced at LME plus a regional physical premium plus a product conversion premium. Working capital discipline improved materially in 2025: accounts receivable days fell from 54 to 46 and inventory days from 113 to 105 (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 17). The inventory days figure is important context for 2026, because it means Alba entered the Hormuz disruption carrying roughly 15 weeks of stock, which is precisely the buffer that allowed it to curtail production in an orderly way rather than crash-stop.

**Partnerships.** Alba signed a tripartite memorandum of understanding with Shandong Innovation Group and Blue Five Capital for joint investments and knowledge sharing, and a long-term MoU securing liquid coal tar pitch supply (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 12). It also expanded its partnership with Array Innovation for advanced data modelling and artificial intelligence, and runs an open innovation programme with Tamkeen and Brinc MENA that shortlisted three Bahraini SMEs (same source). The Alba Daiki Sustainable Solutions joint venture will process aluminium dross from September 2026 (IR presentation slide 30).

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# 6. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

## Definition and structure

Primary aluminium smelting converts alumina into aluminium metal by the Hall-Heroult electrolytic process. The industry is defined by three characteristics that determine everything else about it. First, it is enormously electricity-intensive, at roughly 13 to 15 MWh per tonne, so smelters locate at stranded cheap power. Second, potlines cannot be economically cycled: stopping a line risks freezing the cryolite bath and destroying the cathode lining, so producers run flat out and absorb price cycles through margin rather than volume. Third, the product is a globally fungible commodity priced on the LME, so producers compete on position on the cost curve, on physical premium capture, and on product mix, but not on price.

The consequence is an industry of price-taking, high-fixed-cost, high-operating-leverage assets. That operating leverage is exactly what Alba's 2026 results display: a 61% Q2 volume decline coexisting with a 164% Q2 profit increase, because the price move dominated.

## Market size and growth

Global primary aluminium production reached approximately 73.8 million tonnes in 2025 (alcircle, "World primary aluminium production growth hits 5-year low in 2025"). The International Aluminium Institute recorded 72.758 million tonnes in 2024, up 2.9% from 70.716 million tonnes in 2023 (IAI data cited in industry reporting, accessed 28 August 2026). Alba's own market intelligence, sourced from CRU, put 2025 global output growth at 2% year on year and demand growth at 2% (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slides 6 and 7). Note that the 73.8 million tonne and 72.758 million tonne figures imply approximately 1.4% growth, against the 2% cited by CRU. See Section 11, conflict C7.

At an approximate 2025 average LME of US$2,630 per tonne (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 25), 73.8 million tonnes represents roughly US$194 billion of primary metal value at LME alone, before premiums.

The 2025 supply and demand balance, per CRU as presented by Alba, was a surplus of 118 thousand tonnes including China and 229 thousand tonnes excluding China (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 7). By Q2 2026 that had inverted violently to a deficit of approximately 934 thousand tonnes including China, with demand up 1% and supply down approximately 1% (Alba Q2 and H1 2026 results release, July 2026). Norsk Hydro warned that the global deficit could exceed 900,000 tonnes for the year if Hormuz trade were not normalised (Shanghai Metals Market, August 2026). A swing of roughly one million tonnes in the balance inside eighteen months, in a 74 million tonne market, is what has taken LME from below US$3,000 at the start of 2026 to US$3,855 on 2 June 2026 (alcircle, H2 2026 price outlook).

## Regional demand and supply, 2025

Per CRU as presented by Alba (FY2025 IR presentation, slide 7):

| Region | Demand YoY | Supply YoY |
|---|---|---|
| North America | -3% | -1% |
| Europe | +1% | +2% |
| China | +3% | +2% |
| Middle East | Flat | Flat |

The Chinese constraint is the structural fact of the decade. Beijing has capped domestic smelting capacity at 45 million tonnes per annum, and China's operating capacity is now close to that ceiling (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slides 6 and 27). Because China supplies roughly 60% of world output, a hard cap on the marginal producer means that incremental global demand must be met from outside China, which is precisely why ex-China producers have re-rated and why Alba's positioning as the largest smelter outside China matters commercially rather than just descriptively.

## Prices, premiums and inventories

LME cash averaged US$2,630 per tonne in 2025, up 9% year on year from US$2,419 (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 25). Q4 2025 averaged US$2,828, ranging between US$2,683.5 and US$2,968 (FY2025 press release, 17 February 2026). Q1 2026 averaged US$3,195 and Q2 2026 US$3,576 (Alba Q1 and Q2 2026 releases). The metal touched US$3,855 on 2 June 2026 and traded around US$3,337 on 11 August 2026 (alcircle; Shanghai Metals Market, 11 August 2026).

Regional physical premiums are the second half of realised price and have become extraordinarily dispersed. On Alba's disclosure (FY2025 IR presentation, slide 8), quarterly averages in US dollars per tonne:

| Premium index | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Midwest | 457 | 718 | 984 | 1,553 | 1,870 |
| DDP Rotterdam | 351 | 294 | 194 | 213 | 313 |
| Major Japanese Ports (CIF) | 175 | 228 | 182 | 108 | 86 |

The US Midwest premium quadrupled in a year on the back of Section 232 tariffs and destocking, and the CEO stated it exceeded US$2,200 by early 2026 (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). Rotterdam troughed mid-2025 and then rose 61% into Q4 on pre-CBAM buying. MJP fell 51% over the same period on Asian oversupply, before Alba's guidance saw it rebounding to US$195 per tonne in Q1 2026 on constrained Asian supply (IR presentation slide 27).

Inventories tell the tightening story. Global inventories fell 20% year on year to 509,000 tonnes at end-2025, with Alba noting that "a significant share of stocks remained of Russian origin, reducing effective availability for Western consumers due to sanctions and trade restrictions" (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 8). LME inventories were 418,000 tonnes at Q1 2026, down 9%, and 302,000 tonnes at Q2 2026, down 13% (Alba Q1 and Q2 2026 releases). By August 2026 they were near 250,000 tonnes, the lowest since November 1990 (Shanghai Metals Market, August 2026).

## Input cost environment

Alumina is the largest single input, typically 30% to 40% of cash cost. The Alumina Price Index averaged US$503 per tonne in 2025 against US$444 per tonne in 2024 (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 25). Within the year it collapsed: Q4 2024 API was US$553 per tonne, equal to 21% of LME, falling to US$366 per tonne, or 13% of LME, by Q4 2025 (IR presentation slides 9 and 25). The CEO's reaction is worth quoting because it captures how unusual the situation is: "if you look at the alumina price compared to the LME price is almost 10% or low. This is, I never seen this in my working in the industry" (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). Alba's outlook is for alumina to remain soft on Asian oversupply, with late-2026 support from new Indonesian smelter demand (IR presentation slide 28). Alba flagged that alumina had moved to around US$310 per tonne by February 2026 (FY2025 webcast transcript).

The other inputs are tighter. Alba's guidance is that carbon markets remain broadly stable with upside risk on geopolitical escalation, liquid pitch faces downward price pressure but limited downside because coal tar availability is tight, and aluminium fluoride prices are expected to rise on constrained inventories (IR presentation slide 28).

Power is Alba's structural advantage and is contracted rather than exposed. Alba signed a 10-year natural gas supply agreement with Bapco Upstream on 23 January 2024 at a fixed US$4.00 per MMBTU for the first five years (Alba announcement, 23 January 2024). See Section 11, conflict C6, on the US$4.5 per MMBTU figure disclosed for 2026. Management confirmed on the FY2025 call that "we have a fixed rate price for the gas contract. And till now we didn't receive any notification from the government or from the authority to increase the gas price" (FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026).

## Regulatory environment

Three regulatory vectors bear on Alba.

**Bahrain DMTT.** Bahrain introduced a 15% Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax under Decree Law 11 of 2024, effective for fiscal years beginning on or after 1 January 2025, applying to multinational enterprise groups with consolidated revenue above EUR 750 million in two of the last four fiscal years (EY global tax alert; FTI Consulting; BDO Bahrain). This is Bahrain's first general profit tax outside oil and gas. Alba comfortably exceeds the revenue threshold at US$4,731 million. Management stated on the FY2025 call that "we don't foresee based on what was published so far, any impact in 2026" and that they continue to work with the National Bureau for Revenue on the legislation (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). This is a material open item: Alba has historically been effectively untaxed, and a move to a 15% effective rate would reduce net income by approximately 15% on an unchanged pre-tax basis.

**EU CBAM.** The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its definitive phase in 2026, imposing a carbon cost on aluminium imported into the EU based on embedded emissions. With 26.7% of 2025 tonnes sold into Europe (IR presentation slide 15), Alba is directly exposed. Its response is the EternAl low-carbon range and ASI Chain of Custody certification. Management explicitly declined to quantify the CBAM impact (FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026).

**US Section 232 tariffs.** US tariffs on imported aluminium lifted domestic prices and tightened local supply while pressuring downstream margins (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 6). For Alba the tariff created an US$80 million inventory absorption cost inside the 2025 direct cost bridge, more than offset by higher Midwest premium capture for a net positive of above US$20 million from the US entity (FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026; IR presentation slide 22).

## The 2026 structural break

The defining industry event of 2026 is the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. GCC producers account for approximately 9% of global aluminium supply and approximately 25% of non-Chinese supply (industry analysis, 2026), or on Alba's peer-group data roughly 6.16 to 6.5 million tonnes of 73.8 million tonnes, 8% to 9% (alcircle, "2026 Middle East aluminium outlook"; see Section 11, conflict C3). Roughly 5.5 million tonnes of GCC primary aluminium shipments have been subject to trade uncertainty (alcircle, 2026). Both of the region's two largest smelters, EGA's Al Taweelah and Alba's Askar, sustained direct attack damage in late March 2026 (alcircle, 29 March 2026; S&P Global Commodity Insights, 30 March 2026; Industrial Info Resources, 2026). One report tracks EGA's Al Taweelah recovery towards Q1 2027 recommissioning (industry analysis, 2026), which if accurate implies the regional supply deficit persists for at least four more quarters.

This is not a normal commodity cycle. It is a supply shock that has simultaneously raised the price Alba receives and cut the volume Alba can produce and ship, and it has done so through a mechanism, physical conflict, that carries a fat left tail.

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# 7. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Primary aluminium is a cost-curve business, so competitive analysis means asking where each producer sits on cost, how much captive integration it has, what physical premium it can capture, and how exposed it is to disruption. Alba's peer set spans four quite different structures.

## The instructed peers

**Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), UAE, unlisted.** EGA is Alba's closest direct comparator and its principal regional rival: the same gas-powered GCC model, similar downstream cluster logic, on a larger asset base. EGA sold a record 2.83 million tonnes of cast metal in 2025 to over 400 customers in more than 50 countries, up from 2.77 million tonnes, with cast metal production of 2.84 million tonnes, the highest ever (alcircle, February 2026; Gulf Today, 25 February 2026). Underlying revenues rose 14% to AED 31.98 billion from AED 28.14 billion (approximately US$8.7 billion), and underlying net profit excluding Guinea Alumina Corporation rose 16% to AED 4.93 billion, or US$1.34 billion (same sources). Reported net profit including the Guinea impact fell to AED 2.12 billion (US$577 million) from AED 2.62 billion (US$713 million) (Zawya/Reuters, 25 February 2026). Capacity is over 2.5 million tonnes per annum, of which Al Taweelah produced 1.6 million tonnes in 2025 (industry sources, 2026).

The decisive structural difference is upstream integration. EGA's Al Taweelah alumina refinery produced 2.40 million tonnes of alumina in 2025, meeting 46% of EGA's alumina needs, alongside a bauxite position in Guinea (alcircle, February 2026). Alba has no alumina refining and no bauxite. In a normal market that costs Alba nothing and saves it capital. In 2026, when alumina could not reach Bahrain through Hormuz, it cost Alba 19% of its capacity. EGA is also expanding into the US with a planned 750,000 tonne primary smelter, the first new US smelter since 1980 (alcircle, February 2026), which would place capacity inside the tariff wall that Alba can only serve through exports from Atlanta. EGA was also hit in the March 2026 attacks, with six people injured and significant damage from intercepted missile debris (Gulf Business, 29 March 2026), so its 2026 will be at least as disrupted as Alba's.

**Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA).** Alcoa is a fully integrated bauxite, alumina and aluminium producer and, uniquely in this peer set, both a competitor and Alba's largest third-party supplier. FY2025 revenue was US$12.8 billion, up 8%, with adjusted EBITDA excluding special items of US$2.0 billion against US$1.6 billion in 2024, the increase driven by higher aluminium prices and higher bauxite volumes and prices, partly offset by tariff costs on imported aluminium and lower alumina prices (Alcoa Q4 and FY2025 results, 22 January 2026, via Businesswire and Nasdaq). Alcoa guides 2026 aluminium segment production of 2.4 to 2.6 million tonnes and shipments of 2.6 to 2.8 million tonnes, up on 2025 on smelter restarts (same source).

The comparison is instructive. Alcoa is roughly 2.7 times Alba's revenue but generated only 1.9 times Alba's EBITDA in 2025, an implied EBITDA margin of 15.6% against Alba's 22.8%. Integration into alumina is a hedge, not a margin enhancer, and in a year of falling alumina prices it is a drag. Alcoa's relationship with Alba is contractual and long-dated: up to 16.5 million tonnes of Western Australian smelter-grade alumina from 2026 to 2035, making Alcoa Alba's largest third-party supplier (Alcoa press release, 14 October 2024).

**SABIC (2010.SR).** SABIC is included in the instructed peer set as a diversified Saudi materials company and Alba's former 20.62% strategic shareholder, having sold that stake to Ma'aden in February 2025 (Argaam, February 2025). It is not an aluminium producer and is not a competitive peer in any operational sense. FY2025 revenue was SAR 116.5 billion (approximately US$31 billion), down 1%, with net adjusted income of SAR 2.1 billion and a reported net loss attributable to equity holders of the parent of SAR 25.78 billion, against net income of SAR 1.54 billion in 2024, driven principally by fair value impairments of SAR 9.85 billion and SAR 5.33 billion relating to the potential divestiture of the European Petrochemicals and Americas and Europe Engineering Thermoplastics businesses (SABIC FY2025 earnings release; Gulf Industry Online). Free cash flow was SAR 7.2 billion, up 17%. SABIC's relevance to this coverage is as a valuation datapoint for GCC materials and as the transaction comparable that repriced 20.62% of Alba at BD363.08 million in February 2025, implying an equity value of approximately BD1.76 billion for the whole company at that date. Against the current market capitalisation of BHD 1.24 billion (Investing.com, accessed 28 August 2026), the Ma'aden transaction was struck approximately 42% above where the market values Alba today. That is a directly usable precedent transaction input for Task 3.

## Extended competitor set

**Ma'aden (1211.SR), Saudi Arabia.** Now Alba's 20.62% shareholder and simultaneously a competitor through Ma'aden Aluminium. FY2025 revenue was US$10.3 billion, up 19%, with EBITDA of US$4.3 billion, up 30%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of US$2.0 billion, up 156%, of which Alba contributed US$0.3 billion in its maiden full-year inclusion (AGBI, March 2026; Arabian Business; Ma'aden FY2025 results). Ma'aden completed the acquisition of Alcoa's 25.1% interest in its aluminium business on 1 July 2025, taking full ownership of its integrated bauxite, alumina and smelting complex at Ras Al Khair (Ma'aden disclosures, 2025). Ma'aden's stated ambition is to grow its aluminium business tenfold by 2040 (mining-technology, 2024). Merger discussions with Alba were terminated in January 2025 (AGBI, January 2025), but the strategic logic that produced them has not disappeared, and a shareholder that intends to grow aluminium tenfold and already owns a fifth of Alba is a permanent feature of the Alba investment case.

**Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL), Norway.** Approximately 2.1 million tonnes of annual primary capacity and a 16th-percentile position on the global primary aluminium cost curve in 2025 (alcircle, 2025). Hydro is the benchmark for low-carbon aluminium in Europe, running predominantly on hydropower, and is therefore Alba's principal competitor for CBAM-advantaged European volume. Hydro publicly warned that the global aluminium deficit could exceed 900,000 tonnes in 2026 absent Hormuz normalisation (Shanghai Metals Market, August 2026).

**Rio Tinto (RIO.L / RIO.AX).** Guided 2025 aluminium production of 3.25 to 3.45 million tonnes on a Rio Tinto share basis, against 3.3 million tonnes in 2024 (Rio Tinto FY2025 results, 18 February 2026, SEC Form 6-K). Rio is fully integrated from bauxite through to metal and runs predominantly hydro-powered Canadian smelters, giving it both the lowest carbon intensity in the peer group and a cost position insulated from gas.

**Qatalum (Qatar) and Sohar Aluminium (Oman).** The two smaller GCC smelters, both gas-powered, both affected by Hormuz. Sohar has reduced export shipments to varying degrees during 2026 (industry reporting, 2026). Sohar is also where Alba's current CFO served immediately before joining.

**Chinese producers (Chalco, Hongqiao) and Indian producers (Hindalco, Vedanta).** Collectively the volume centre of the industry. Chinese capacity is capped at 45 million tonnes and effectively at that ceiling (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 27), which removes the historic source of marginal supply growth. Indian producers are integrated and coal-powered, giving them cost strength and carbon weakness.

## Where Alba sits

**Advantages.**
1. **Single-site scale.** The largest smelter in the world on one site, at 1,623,139 tonnes in 2025 (FY2025 press release). One set of overheads, one management team, one port, six lines. This is the origin of the 22.8% EBITDA margin against Alcoa's 15.6%.
2. **Contracted low-cost power.** Fixed gas at US$4.00 per MMBTU for five years from January 2024 (Alba announcement, 23 January 2024) and 3,926 MW of captive generation (Global Energy Monitor, accessed 28 August 2026), with a Chief Power Officer at C-suite level. Alba does not buy power at a market price; it makes it.
3. **The liquid metal moat.** Roughly 30% of tonnes sold go to Bahrain (IR presentation slide 15), much of it as molten metal to physically adjacent customers with prohibitive switching costs. No competitor can contest this volume.
4. **Product mix and premium capture.** VAP at 74% of shipments and realised premium of US$332 per tonne, up 24% (IR presentation slides 14 and 21).
5. **Balance sheet.** Net debt to EBITDA of 0.52 times (IR presentation slide 18), which is what made a US$2.2 billion acquisition financeable at all.

**Vulnerabilities.**
1. **No upstream integration.** Zero bauxite, zero alumina. EGA self-supplies 46% of its alumina; Ma'aden and Alcoa and Rio are fully integrated. Alba is 100% dependent on seaborne alumina, and in 2026 that dependency cost it 19% of its capacity.
2. **Single-site concentration.** Every advantage in point 1 above is also the concentration risk. One site, one country, one gas supplier, one port. On 28 March 2026 that site was hit by a missile.
3. **Geographic chokepoint.** Both inbound alumina and outbound metal transit the Strait of Hormuz.
4. **Carbon intensity.** Gas-fired power is far cleaner than coal but far dirtier than hydro. Against Hydro and Rio in a CBAM-priced Europe, Alba competes at a structural disadvantage that EternAl offsets commercially rather than physically.
5. **Free float and governance.** A 10% float in a company controlled 69.38% by a sovereign fund and 20.62% by a strategic competitor-shareholder limits liquidity and means minority interests are not decisive on any question.

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# 8. MARKET OPPORTUNITY (TAM)

**TAM: global primary aluminium.** Global primary production was approximately 73.8 million tonnes in 2025 (alcircle, 2026). At the 2025 average LME of US$2,630 per tonne (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 25), that is approximately US$194 billion at LME value, or roughly US$219 billion including an average realised premium in the region of Alba's US$332 per tonne. At the Q2 2026 average LME of US$3,576 per tonne (Alba Q2 2026 release), the same tonnage would be worth approximately US$264 billion, which illustrates how much of this "market" is price rather than volume.

Alba's 1,613,360 tonnes sold in 2025 (FY2025 press release) represent approximately 2.2% of global primary production. Its US$4,731 million of revenue represents approximately 2.4% of the LME-valued TAM. Alba is a significant but not dominant global participant.

**SAM: non-Chinese primary aluminium.** China produces roughly 60% of world output and is effectively closed to imports and capped at 45 million tonnes (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 27). The serviceable market is therefore the roughly 29 million tonnes produced outside China, within which Alba's 1.61 million tonnes is approximately 5.6%. This is the more meaningful denominator. Alba's own positioning claim, that it is the largest smelter outside China, is a claim about this market.

**SOM: the addressable slices Alba actually competes for.**

1. **The Bahrain cluster,** approximately 30% of 2025 tonnes (IR presentation slide 15), roughly 484,000 tonnes. Alba's share here is effectively 100% and is defended by liquid metal delivery. Growth is limited to the growth of Bahraini downstream capacity.
2. **Europe,** 26.7% of tonnes, roughly 431,000 tonnes. This is the CBAM-exposed slice and the strategic battleground. It is also where the Dunkerque acquisition changes everything: 300,000 tonnes of EU-domestic, low-carbon production that is not an import and therefore not CBAM-liable.
3. **MENA,** 16.8%, roughly 271,000 tonnes, a structurally growing regional market with GCC industrial diversification.
4. **Americas,** 15.1%, roughly 244,000 tonnes, served from Atlanta inside a tariff regime that has been net positive at above US$20 million (FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026).
5. **Asia,** 11.4%, roughly 184,000 tonnes, the lowest-premium region with MJP at US$86 per tonne in Q4 2025 (IR presentation slide 8).

**Growth vectors and their sizing.**

- **Dunkerque, approximately 300,000 tonnes per annum for US$2.2 billion** (Alba announcement, 2026). This lifts group capacity by roughly 18.5% off the 1.623 million tonne 2025 base and, more importantly, converts Alba from a single-site exporter into a two-continent producer with EU-domestic supply. The implied acquisition cost is roughly US$7,333 per annual tonne, which is expensive against historical greenfield smelter build costs of roughly US$5,000 to US$6,000 per tonne but buys an operating asset with no construction risk, an existing EU carbon position and an established customer base. See Section 12: no Dunkerque EBITDA has been disclosed, which is a hard constraint on Task 3.
- **New Replacement Line (NRL), formerly Line 7.** The Class 3 Feasibility Study and Bankable Feasibility Study were both in progress as at February 2026, executed by Bechtel (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 30; Bechtel press release on the Line 7 feasibility study). The CEO stated the NRL "will increase our capacity by 380,000 metric tons, approximately", but "provided that, we have to maybe close the old lines, Line 1 and 2 and 3" (Alba FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). Note the conflict with the earlier and widely reported 540,000 tonne scope. See Section 11, conflict C2. Alba's own ESG roadmap targets commissioning the New Replacement Line and retiring Lines 1 to 3 in Q2 2027, subject to government approvals and completion of the feasibility study (IR presentation slide 39). Capex has not been disclosed: asked directly, investor relations answered "the CapEx is not yet clear to us" (FY2025 webcast transcript). The Board decision was expected at the May 2026 meeting; no public disclosure of that decision has been located as at 28 August 2026.
- **Recycling and circularity.** Alba Daiki Sustainable Solutions for dross processing, due to operate from September 2026 (IR presentation slide 30), and a target of remelting 15,000 to 30,000 tonnes of secondary material per year in the 2025 to 2027 window (IR presentation slide 39).
- **Renewable power offtake.** Alba targets 500 to 1,000 MW of imported grid renewable energy by 2030, with a public tender already issued for 500 MW, alongside a commissioned 6.23 MW solar farm (IR presentation slide 39).
- **Cost programme.** e-Al Hassalah delivered US$67.32 million in 2025, cumulative US$126.89 million, with a 2026 target that Alba's own materials state inconsistently. See Section 11, conflict C5.

The honest framing of Alba's market opportunity is this. Volume growth from the existing asset is essentially exhausted: Lines 1 to 5 are old, Line 6 is full, and the NRL adds net capacity only by first subtracting Lines 1 to 3. Alba's growth therefore has to come from acquisition, from mix, and from cost, which is precisely the strategy management is executing.

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# 9. RISK ASSESSMENT

## Company-specific risks

**1. Single-site catastrophic concentration, now demonstrated rather than theoretical.** Alba's entire production base sits on one site at Askar. On 28 March 2026 that site was struck in an Iranian attack, injuring two employees, with Alba confirming it was "assessing the extent of the damage" (Alba announcement, 29 March 2026). Q2 2026 net finished production fell to 155,469 tonnes, down 61% year on year (Alba Q2 and H1 2026 release). Third-party reporting suggests restoration of the primary smelter could take up to twelve months, though Alba has not confirmed any such figure. See Section 11, conflict C4. Mitigants: a controlled rather than uncontrolled shutdown, structured asset care during the outage, and a demonstrated insurance recovery culture, as the December 2025 rectifier fire loss was described by the CEO as "already insured and covered by insurance fully" (FY2025 webcast transcript). Severity: extreme. Likelihood: realised.

**2. Total dependence on seaborne alumina through a contested chokepoint.** Alba has no bauxite and no alumina refining. Its largest third-party supplier, Alcoa, ships from Western Australia under a contract for up to 16.5 million tonnes from 2026 to 2035 (Alcoa press release, 14 October 2024). Every tonne transits the Strait of Hormuz. Alumina supply constraint, not demand, is the stated cause of the Lines 1 to 3 curtailment. EGA by contrast self-supplies 46% of its alumina requirement (alcircle, February 2026). Mitigant: 105 inventory days at end-2025 (IR presentation slide 17) bought the time for an orderly curtailment. Severity: high. Likelihood: realised and ongoing.

**3. Aluminium Dunkerque integration and completion risk.** A US$2.2 billion acquisition, the largest in company history, of an asset on another continent, in another regulatory regime, with a workforce and industrial relations environment Alba has never managed, executed by a management team whose CEO has spent 28 years at one site. Completion is conditional on French FDI clearance and EU regulatory approval, neither obtained as at the H1 2026 disclosure (Alba Q2 and H1 2026 release). No Dunkerque revenue or EBITDA has been disclosed. The financing is a bank consortium facility rather than committed disclosed terms. Severity: high. Likelihood: moderate on integration, lower on completion given Bpifrance's EUR 100 million co-investment signals French state support.

**4. Balance sheet reversal.** Alba spent four years taking net debt from US$2,218 million to US$564 million and net debt to EBITDA from 1.36 times to 0.52 times (IR presentation slide 18). A fully debt-financed US$2.2 billion acquisition would, on a static 2025 EBITDA base of US$1,078 million, take net debt to roughly US$2.8 billion and gearing to roughly 2.6 times before any Dunkerque EBITDA contribution. That is above the 2021 post-Line-6 peak. If the NRL also proceeds, at an undisclosed capex that on comparable projects would run into the billions, Alba is committing to two large capital programmes simultaneously. Severity: high. Likelihood: moderate.

**5. Ageing asset base in Lines 1 to 3.** The lines curtailed in 2026 are the oldest, dating from 1971 to 1981. Alba's ESG roadmap contemplates retiring them on commissioning of the New Replacement Line in Q2 2027 (IR presentation slide 39). A prolonged cold outage on old potlines raises the risk that restart requires full cathode relining rather than a simple restart, converting an operating decision into a capital one. Severity: moderate. Likelihood: moderate.

**6. Key person and succession concentration.** Al Baqali has been at Alba for 28 years and CEO since February 2020, and is the architect of e-Al Hassalah, the Line 6 financing and the current strategy. Governance mitigants include an active Bahrainisation succession pipeline with multiple 2026 managerial appointments (Zawya, 4 March 2026) and an externally recruited CFO with 25 years of global metals experience (Alba announcement, 2024). Severity: moderate. Likelihood: low.

## Industry and market risks

**7. Geopolitical supply disruption in the Gulf.** The GCC produces roughly 6.16 to 6.5 million tonnes, approximately 8% to 9% of global supply and approximately 25% of non-Chinese supply (alcircle, 2026). Two of its five smelters were physically attacked in March 2026 and roughly 5.5 million tonnes of regional shipments have been subject to trade uncertainty (alcircle, 2026). Iran announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and US-Iran talks on reopening had stalled as at August 2026 (Shanghai Metals Market, 11 August 2026). This risk is currently Alba's largest source of both upside, through LME, and downside, through volume. Severity: extreme. Likelihood: realised and unresolved.

**8. LME price reversal on Hormuz normalisation.** The mirror image of risk 7. Alba's H1 2026 profit of US$372.8 million, up 228%, was achieved on 61% lower Q2 volume purely because LME averaged US$3,576 per tonne (Alba Q2 and H1 2026 release). Industry analysis notes that a Hormuz reopening could release approximately 700,000 tonnes of held aluminium into the market (alcircle, H2 2026 outlook), and Alba's own CRU-based guidance for 2026 was a range of US$2,650 to US$2,750 per tonne (IR presentation slide 27). A reversion to US$2,700 with volumes still impaired is the genuinely adverse scenario, and it is not the consensus one. Severity: high. Likelihood: moderate.

**9. Competitive capacity additions outside the Gulf.** EGA has announced a 750,000 tonne primary smelter in the United States, the first new US smelter since 1980 (alcircle, February 2026), which would serve the Midwest premium market from inside the tariff wall. Ma'aden intends to grow its aluminium business tenfold by 2040 (mining-technology, 2024). Alcoa guides higher 2026 production on smelter restarts (Alcoa FY2025 results, 22 January 2026). Severity: moderate. Likelihood: moderate to high over a five-year horizon.

**10. Carbon regulation and CBAM.** With 26.7% of 2025 tonnes sold into Europe (IR presentation slide 15) and gas-fired rather than hydro-powered production, Alba faces a structural carbon cost disadvantage against Hydro and Rio Tinto as CBAM enters its definitive phase. Management explicitly declined to quantify the impact (FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). Mitigants: EternAl and EternAl-AC with verified AC0 to AC4 tiering, ASI Performance and Chain of Custody certification, EcoVadis Platinum top-1% rating, PS5 Block 4 reducing intensity by approximately 0.5 tonnes CO2 per tonne of aluminium, and a 500 to 1,000 MW renewable offtake target for 2030 (Alba corporate profile; IR presentation slide 39). Severity: moderate. Likelihood: high.

## Financial risks

**11. Introduction of the 15% Bahrain DMTT.** Effective for fiscal years beginning on or after 1 January 2025 for MNE groups above EUR 750 million of consolidated revenue (EY tax alert; BDO Bahrain), which Alba exceeds by a wide margin at US$4,731 million. Alba has historically been effectively untaxed. Management stated it does not foresee an impact in 2026 and continues to engage the National Bureau for Revenue (FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026), but this is an engagement, not a resolution. A move to a 15% effective rate reduces net income by approximately 15% on unchanged pre-tax profit, which on 2025 numbers is roughly US$87 million. Severity: moderate. Likelihood: high over a two to three year horizon.

**12. Alumina price reversal and cost lag.** Alumina fell from 21% of LME in Q4 2024 to 13% in Q4 2025 (IR presentation slide 9), a historically extreme low that the CEO said he had never seen in his career and did not expect to persist (FY2025 webcast transcript). The FY2025 direct cost bridge shows major raw material price adding US$223 million and inventory absorption US$156 million to costs (IR presentation slide 22). The CFO disclosed a three to four month lag from alumina purchase price to P&L (FY2025 webcast transcript), meaning any alumina squeeze arrives with a delay and cannot be hedged operationally. Severity: high. Likelihood: moderate.

**13. Dividend reduction.** The 35% payout ratio is a policy, not a commitment, and the CFO conditioned 2026 distribution explicitly on whether the NRL proceeds, saying "it depends on how the projects will proceed if we get a green light or not" and, on payout, "it depends on our profitability also" (FY2025 webcast transcript, 18 February 2026). With Dunkerque to fund and the NRL undecided, a payout cut is a live possibility. Severity: moderate. Likelihood: moderate.

## Macroeconomic risks

**14. Commodity cyclicality with extreme operating leverage.** Alba is a price taker in an industry that cannot flex volume. The 2025 revenue bridge shows US$334 million of the US$441 million revenue increase came from LME alone and a further US$95 million from premiums, against US$12 million from mix and volume combined (IR presentation slide 20). On roughly 1.6 million tonnes, every US$100 per tonne on LME is approximately US$160 million of revenue and, absent cost offset, close to that in EBITDA. Severity: high. Likelihood: certain.

**15. US trade policy reversal.** Section 232 tariffs drove the US Midwest premium from US$457 per tonne in Q4 2024 to US$1,870 per tonne in Q4 2025, exceeding US$2,200 by early 2026 (IR presentation slide 8; FY2025 webcast transcript), delivering a net positive above US$20 million from Alba's US entity despite an US$80 million tariff-related inventory cost (FY2025 webcast transcript; IR presentation slide 22). Alba's own guidance is that the Midwest premium "may soften slightly but is projected to remain structurally elevated" (IR presentation slide 27). A material tariff rollback would compress the premium sharply. Severity: moderate. Likelihood: low to moderate.

**16. Currency and free float liquidity.** The Bahraini dinar is pegged to the US dollar, and Alba prices in dollars, so transaction FX exposure is limited. The CFO did attribute approximately US$40 million of a 2025 cost bridge line to euro appreciation (FY2025 webcast transcript), and the Dunkerque acquisition will add a structural euro exposure. Separately, with a 10% free float and roughly 142 million shares available, ALBH liquidity is thin for institutional position sizing, and the stock traded within a 52-week range of BHD 0.715 to BHD 1.150 (Investing.com, accessed 28 August 2026), a 61% spread. Severity: moderate. Likelihood: high.

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# 10. PROPOSED DIFFERENTIATOR CHAPTER (analyst confirmation required)

The contract requires exactly one analyst-named differentiator chapter, with the engine proposing a topic at the stage-1 review gate for the analyst to confirm or redirect.

**Proposed title: "The wrong kind of good year"**

**Thesis.** Alba in 2026 is generating the best earnings in its history from the worst operating conditions in its history, and the market is refusing to pay for them. H1 2026 profit rose 228% to US$372.8 million while Q2 production fell 61% (Alba Q2 and H1 2026 release). Trailing EPS is 223 fils against 154 fils for FY2025, an increase of 45%, while the shares have fallen from BHD 1.105 at end-2025 to BHD 0.878, a decline of 21% (Alba FY2025 IR presentation slide 40; Investing.com, accessed 28 August 2026). The result is a trailing P/E of 3.94 times.

The chapter would argue that the market is correct to discount these earnings and probably wrong about the magnitude, and would resolve the question by separating Alba's earnings into three components with different multiples: the structural core (cost position, contracted gas at US$4.00 per MMBTU, liquid metal moat, 74% VAP mix), the cyclical component (LME above US$3,500 versus a CRU mid-cycle of US$2,650 to US$2,750), and the war premium (the portion of price attributable to Hormuz that reverses on normalisation, potentially releasing 700,000 tonnes into the market per alcircle's H2 2026 analysis). It would then test what Dunkerque does to that decomposition: 300,000 tonnes of EU-domestic, non-CBAM-liable, non-Hormuz-exposed production acquired for US$2.2 billion is, read correctly, a purchase of geographic diversification at a premium price by a company that has just learned what single-site concentration costs.

The chapter's analytical spine would be four charts: earnings decomposition into structural, cyclical and disruption components; LME versus Alba volume, indexed, 2024 to 2026 showing the divergence; the Ma'aden February 2025 transaction price against the current market price as a control valuation; and pro-forma net debt to EBITDA under Dunkerque completion at three LME scenarios.

**Alternative if redirected:** "Uncompromised cost efficiency", building on e-Al Hassalah's US$126.89 million cumulative savings, the US$4.00 per MMBTU fixed gas contract and the 22.8% EBITDA margin versus Alcoa's 15.6%. This is the safer and more conventional chapter and is fully supported by the data gathered.

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# 11. DATA CONFLICTS REGISTER

Per the instruction to flag conflicts rather than smooth them, and the contract's number-binding rule, the following conflicts were identified and are NOT resolved in this document.

**C1. FY2025 product-line mix, label-to-value mapping.** Alba's FY2025 IR presentation slide 16 shows six values (35.73%, 21.07%, 17.41%, 13.52%, 7.34%, 4.93%) against six labels (Liquid, Billets, Foundries, Slabs, High Purity Metal, Standard/T-Ingots), but the graphic's label order cannot be recovered from the extracted text. The CFO's spoken breakdown on the 18 February 2026 call was: liquid 21%, billets 26%, foundries 17.4%, rolling slabs approximately 13%, high purity metal 7%, standard/T-ingots 5%, which sums to 89.4% rather than 100%. Foundries (17.41) and slabs (13.52) reconcile between the two sources; liquid and billets do not. Separately, the four values 35.73 + 17.41 + 13.52 + 7.34 sum to exactly 74.00%, matching the disclosed VAP share, and the remaining two (21.07 + 4.93) sum to exactly 26.00%, which would imply the 21.07% line is a non-VAP commodity product. That reading contradicts the transcript's assignment of 21% to liquid metal, since liquid metal is a value-added product. **Action: obtain the slide directly or confirm with Alba investor relations before building chart_03 at Task 4.**

**C2. New Replacement Line capacity: 380,000 versus 540,000 tonnes.** CEO Al Baqali stated on 18 February 2026 that the NRL "will increase our capacity by 380,000 metric tons, approximately". Earlier and widely reported scoping put Line 7 at "within the range of 540,000 metric tonnes per annum", similar to Line 6 (alcircle; TradeArabia). The difference may be gross new capacity versus net of Lines 1 to 3 retirement, but this is inference, not disclosure. **Action: do not model NRL capacity without clarification.**

**C3. GCC share of global aluminium supply.** alcircle's 2026 Middle East outlook gives "around 6.16 million tonnes, or roughly 8 per cent of world supply" and, in the same body of reporting, "about 6.5 million tonnes in 2025, or 9 percent of global capacity". A separate industry analysis gives "approximately 9% of global aluminium supply and approximately 25% of non-Chinese global supply". These are not reconcilable to a single figure. **Action: use a range, 8% to 9%, and cite both.**

**C4. Timing, cause and severity of the 2026 curtailment.** Three readings coexist. (a) Alba's own Q1 and Q2 2026 releases attribute the Lines 1 to 3 shutdown to "prevailing regional tensions" and raw material availability constraints, framing it as a precautionary, controlled decision. (b) Gulf Business (29 March 2026) states Alba had already shut three lines and declared force majeure on 4 March 2026, before the attack. (c) Bloomberg (15 March 2026) dates the start of output cuts to mid-March. (d) A third-party analysis states the 28 March attack caused "substantial damage", an "emergency shutdown", and that "full restoration of the primary aluminum smelter could take up to 12 months". Alba's own 29 March statement says only that it was "assessing the extent of the damage" and confirms two minor injuries; it makes no mention of production impact, restoration timelines or insurance. **Action: the twelve-month restoration claim is NOT company-sourced and must not be used as a modelling input at Task 2 without confirmation. Flag as an unverified third-party estimate wherever referenced.**

**C5. e-Al Hassalah 2026 target: US$130 million versus US$150 million.** Alba's FY2025 IR presentation states the 2026 target as US$150 million on both slide 14 and slide 30, and the FY2025 press release repeats US$150 million. CEO Al Baqali, describing his personal 2026 Majlis objectives on the same call, said "this is the last programme in Al Hassalah to achieve the US$130 million". **Action: use US$150 million as the disclosed corporate target and footnote the CEO's US$130 million.**

**C6. Natural gas price: US$4.00 versus US$4.50 per MMBTU.** The January 2024 Bapco agreement announcement specifies a fixed US$4.00 per MMBTU for the first five-year period. Alba's Q1 2026 results release states US$4.5 per MMBTU effective through December 2026. Both may be correct if the contract contains a step or a separate tranche, but no reconciliation is disclosed. **Action: use US$4.50 per MMBTU for 2026 modelling and flag the contracted US$4.00 base.**

**C7. Global production growth 2024 to 2025.** IAI-derived figures of 72.758 million tonnes (2024) and alcircle's approximately 73.8 million tonnes (2025) imply approximately 1.4% growth. CRU, as presented by Alba on IR presentation slide 6, states global output "rose by just 2% YoY". **Action: cite both, attributed.**

**C8. FY2024 EBITDA in the webcast transcript.** The transcript of 18 February 2026 records the CFO as saying EBITDA "increased in around 15% from US$1,939 million in 2024, to US$1,078 million in 2025". This is internally impossible. IR presentation slides 23 and 25 give US$939 million for 2024 and US$1,078 million for 2025, which is a 14.8% increase and is consistent with net debt of US$564 million at 0.52 times. The transcript figure is a transcription error. **Resolution: use US$939 million. Documented here for audit completeness.**

**C9. ALBH quote date.** The Investing.com quote page returned a last price of BHD 0.878 with a stated quote date of "August 26, 2024", which is inconsistent with the associated trailing EPS of BHD 0.2233, a figure that can only be derived from H2 2025 plus H1 2026 results. The implied market capitalisation of BHD 1.24 billion equals US$3.30 billion at the BHD peg, which matches companiesmarketcap's stated August 2026 market capitalisation of US$3.30 billion exactly. **Resolution: the price is treated as current to late August 2026 and the stated quote date as a page artefact. Task 3 must re-source the last close from Bloomberg or Bahrain Bourse directly for the cover-page binding, which the contract requires to be market_data typed.**

**C10. Dividend yield.** Reported yields for ALBH range across sources: 3.35% (Simply Wall St), 4.83% (Investing.com) and 5.97% (a further source), against a computed yield of approximately 6.1% if the full 2025 payout of roughly 54 fils (35% of 154 fils EPS) is applied to a BHD 0.878 price. **Action: compute the yield from disclosed dividends per share rather than citing a vendor figure.**

**C11. Alumina refinery attribution.** One search-derived summary attributed an alumina refinery producing 602,000 tonnes in H1 2026 to Alba. Alba operates no alumina refinery. The figure belongs to EGA's Al Taweelah refinery. **Resolution: corrected here; do not propagate.**

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# 12. HANDOFF NOTES TO TASKS 2 AND 3

**Available for the historical model (Task 2), all from Alba FY2025 disclosures dated 17 to 19 February 2026:**

| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (US$m) | 4,313 | 4,731 |
| Direct cost (US$m) | 3,210 | 3,519 |
| EBITDA (US$m) | 939 | 1,078 |
| EBITDA margin | 21.8% | 22.8% |
| Net profit (US$m) | 491 | 582 |
| Adjusted profit (US$m) | 487 | 584 |
| EPS (fils) | 130 | 154 |
| CFO (US$m) | n/d | 1,100 |
| Capex (US$m) | n/d | 284 |
| Free cash flow (US$m) | 569 | 765 |
| Cash (US$m) | 303 | 409 |
| Net debt (US$m) | 1,103 | 564 |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.17x | 0.52x |
| Total equity (US$m) | 5,116.9 | 5,546.8 |
| Total assets (US$m) | 7,110.0 | 6,976.8 |
| Production (MT) | 1,622,261 | 1,623,139 |
| Sales volume (MT) | 1,612,000 | 1,613,360 |
| VAP volume (MT) | 1,157,000 | 1,195,788 |
| VAP share | 72% | 74% |
| Avg LME (US$/t) | 2,419 | 2,630 |
| Avg API (US$/t) | 444 | 503 |
| Avg premium (US$/t) | 268 | 332 |
| Headcount (incl. contractors) | 4,379 | 4,347 |
| AR days | 54 | 46 |
| Inventory days | 113 | 105 |

Historical net debt series for the chart library: US$2,218m (2021), US$1,424m (2022), US$1,399m (2023), US$1,103m (2024), US$564m (2025), with net debt to EBITDA of 1.36x, 0.95x, 1.74x, 1.17x and 0.52x respectively (Alba FY2025 IR presentation, slide 18).

**Known modelling levers.** Alumina cost lag of three to four months from purchase to P&L (CFO, FY2025 call). Gas fixed at US$4.00 per MMBTU for five years from January 2024, disclosed as US$4.50 for 2026 (see conflict C6). Dividend policy 35% payout. Every US$100 per tonne of LME is approximately US$160 million of revenue at 1.6 million tonnes.

**Not obtainable from public sources as at 28 August 2026, and blocking for parts of Task 3:**

1. **Q1 and Q2 2026 revenue, EBITDA (Q1), direct cost, capex, net debt and free cash flow.** Alba has not disclosed these. Only Q2 EBITDA of US$295 million is given. Task 2 will need to build 2026 quarterly revenue from disclosed volumes and LME plus an assumed premium, and must label that as derived rather than disclosed.
2. **Aluminium Dunkerque revenue and EBITDA.** Not disclosed by Alba, AIP or Bpifrance. The only quantitative statement located is AIP's that "the company's EBITDA has increased approximately by two and a half times" since its acquisition, with no base. Without a Dunkerque EBITDA figure, the acquisition multiple cannot be computed and the pro-forma leverage calculation in risk 4 above remains an unbounded estimate. **This is the single largest information gap in the coverage.**
3. **New Replacement Line capex and Board decision.** Capex explicitly undisclosed as at February 2026; the Board decision expected in May 2026 has no located public disclosure.
4. **Bahrain DMTT effective rate for Alba.** Management guidance is no impact in 2026, unresolved thereafter.
5. **Restart schedule for Lines 1 to 3.** No company guidance.
6. **Insurance recoveries** from the December 2025 rectifier fire and, separately, from the March 2026 attack. The CEO confirmed the fire loss was fully insured with recoveries expected in 2026; nothing has been disclosed on the attack.
7. **Executive compensation and insider ownership.** Requires the Annual Report 2025 and AGM materials.

**Valuation anchors already available for Task 3:**

- Ma'aden acquired 20.62% (292.8 million shares) from SABIC for BD363.08 million, completed 17 February 2025, implying BHD 1.24 per share and approximately BHD 1.76 billion for 100% of the equity (Argaam, February 2025). This is a strategic-block precedent transaction and sits approximately 42% above the current market capitalisation of BHD 1.24 billion.
- Consensus analyst target is BHD 1.450 to 1.500, with a high of BHD 1.75 and a low of BHD 1.30, from four analysts with a Strong Buy consensus (Investing.com and TradingView consensus pages, accessed 28 August 2026). Note the two sources give 1.450 and 1.500 respectively; use the range.
- Peer EBITDA margins for 2025: Alba 22.8%, Alcoa 15.6% (US$2.0bn adjusted EBITDA on US$12.8bn revenue), Ma'aden 41.7% (US$4.3bn on US$10.3bn, though phosphate-weighted and not comparable), EGA not disclosed on a comparable basis.
- Dunkerque implied cost per annual tonne: US$2.2 billion for approximately 300,000 tonnes equals approximately US$7,333 per tonne.

**Rating discipline reminder.** The house rule is Over-Weight above +15% upside, Under-Weight below -15%, Equal-Weight between. At a last close of BHD 0.878, Over-Weight requires a fair value above BHD 1.010 and Under-Weight requires a fair value below BHD 0.746. The consensus range of BHD 1.30 to 1.75 sits far above the Over-Weight threshold, which means the burden at Task 3 is to justify why the market is at 3.94 times trailing earnings, not merely to note that it is cheap.

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# 13. DATA SOURCES

## Company primary sources (Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C.)

1. Alba, "Alba Discloses its Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and 12 Months of 2025", press release, 17 February 2026. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-discloses-its-financial-results-for-the-fourth-quarter-and-12-months-of-2025 and PDF at https://www.albasmelter.com/uploads/Alba_Reports_its_FY_and_Q4_2025_Results.pdf
2. Alba, "Disclosure of Material Information to Bahrain Bourse: Q4 and 12 Months 2025 Conference Call, IR Presentation and Transcript", filed 19 February 2026 (call held 18 February 2026). https://www.albasmelter.com/uploads/Alba_Releases_the_Webcast_Transcript_for_Q4_and_Full_Year_2025_19_February_2026.pdf. Cited throughout as "FY2025 webcast transcript" (pages 2 to 16) and "FY2025 IR presentation" (slides 1 to 41).
3. Alba, "Alba Reports its Financial Results for the First Quarter of 2026", April 2026. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-reports-its-financial-results-for-the-first-quarter-of-2026
4. Alba, "Alba Discloses its Financial Results for the Second Quarter and H1 of 2026", July 2026. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-discloses-its-financial-results-for-the-second-quarter-and-h1-of-2026
5. Alba, "Alba Facility was Subject to an Iranian Attack on Saturday 28 March 2026", statement issued 29 March 2026. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-facility-was-subject-to-an-iranian-attack-on-saturday-28-march-2026
6. Alba, "Alba Initiates a Controlled and Safe Shutdown of Reduction Lines 1, 2 and 3", March 2026. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-initiates-a-controlled-and-safe-shutdown-of-reduction-lines-1-2-and-3
7. Alba, "Alba Acquires Aluminium Dunkerque, the EU's Largest Aluminium Smelter, for USD 2.2 Billion", 2026. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-acquires-aluminium-dunkerque
8. Alba, "Alba Announces Ma'aden as a Major Shareholder", February 2025. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-announces-maaden-as-a-major-shareholder
9. Alba, "Alba Inks 10-Year Gas Supply Deal with Bapco Energies", 23 January 2024. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-inks-10-year-gas-supply-deal-with-bapco-energies
10. Alba, "Alba Appoints Seasoned Finance Leader Ricardo Fontes Santana as Chief Financial Officer", 2024. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-appoints-seasoned-finance-leader-ricardo-fontes-santana-as-chief-financial-officer
11. Alba, Leadership page (board and executive management), accessed 28 August 2026. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/category/leadership
12. Alba, Corporate Profile page, accessed 28 August 2026. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/category/corporate-profile
13. Alba, Aluminium Products page and Liquid Metal page, accessed 28 August 2026. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/category/aluminium-products and https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/liquid-metal
14. Alba, "Alba Awards Bechtel to Conduct Line 7 Project's Feasibility Study". https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-awards-bechtel-to-conduct-line-7-projects-feasibility-study
15. Alba, "Alba CEO Outlines Four Priorities for 2026 at Annual Majlis". https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-ceo-outlines-four-priorities-for-2026-at-annual-majlis
16. Alba, "A Partnership Rooted in Sustainability: Alba Renews Alumina Supply Contract with Alcoa". https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-renews-alumina-supply-contract-with-alcoa
17. Alba, "Alba Secures Capral Aluminium as First Customer for Groundbreaking EternAl Low-Carbon Aluminium". https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-secures-capral-aluminium-as-first-customer-for-groundbreaking-eternal-low-carbon-aluminium
18. Alba, Annual Report 2025, environmental section, accessed 28 August 2026. https://www.albasmelter.com/en/reports/pages/src/pages/environmental.html
19. Alba, "Alba CEO visits Midal Cables, Emphasising strong partnership". https://www.albasmelter.com/en/article/alba-ceo-visits-midal-cables-emphasising-strong-partnership

## Peer and counterparty primary sources

20. Alcoa Corporation, "Alcoa Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results", 22 January 2026, via Businesswire and Nasdaq. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260117526434/en/Alcoa-Corporation-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results
21. Alcoa Corporation, "Alcoa Announces Long-Term Alumina Supply Contract Extension with Aluminium Bahrain", 14 October 2024. https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2024/Alcoa-Announces-Long-Term-Alumina-Supply-Contract-Extension-with-Aluminium-Bahrain/default.aspx
22. Howmet (formerly Alcoa Inc.), "Alcoa and Alba Resolve Civil Litigation", 9 October 2012. https://www.howmet.com/press-release/2012-10-09/alcoa-and-alba-resolve-civil-litigation/
23. SABIC, "SABIC posts net adjusted income of SAR 2.1 billion for 2025", and FY2025 earnings release PDF. https://www.sabic.com/en/news/49418-sabic-posts-net-adjusted-income and https://www.sabic.com/en/Images/EARNINGS%20RELEASE%202025_tcm1010-49420.pdf
24. Ma'aden, "Maaden Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results". https://www.maaden.com/news-insights/latest-news/maaden-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-results
25. Rio Tinto plc, FY2025 results, SEC Form 6-K, 18 February 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/863064/000162828026009503/fullyear2025_finalx18feb.htm
26. American Industrial Partners, "Alba and American Industrial Partners Enter Into an Exclusive Agreement for Alba to Acquire Aluminium Dunkerque", 2 March 2026. https://americanindustrial.com/alba-and-american-industrial-partners-enter-into-an-exclusive-agreement-for-alba-to-acquire-aluminium-dunkerque/
27. Bechtel, "Alba Potline 6" project page and "Alba awards Bechtel to conduct Line 7 Project's Feasibility Study". https://www.bechtel.com/projects/alba-potline-6/ and https://www.bechtel.com/press-releases/alba-awards-bechtel-to-conduct-line-7-projects-feasibility-study/

## Market data and financial vendors

28. Investing.com, Aluminium Bahrain BSC (BHB: ALBH) quote page, accessed 28 August 2026. https://www.investing.com/equities/aluminium-bahrain
29. companiesmarketcap, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) market capitalisation, accessed 28 August 2026. https://companiesmarketcap.com/aluminium-bahrain-alba/marketcap/
30. TradingView, ALBH forecast and price target page, accessed 28 August 2026. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BAHRAIN-ALBH/forecast-price-target/
31. Bahrain Bourse, ALBH company profile, accessed 28 August 2026. https://bahrainbourse.com/en/companyprofile?CompanyNameSymbol=ALBH
32. Shanghai Metals Market, "Aluminum climbs above 3,300 as stalled Hormuz talks and record low inventories fuel supply fears", 11 August 2026. https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104054333-aluminum-climbs-above-3300-as-stalled-hormuz-talks-and-record-low-inventories-fuel-supply-fears

## News, trade press and industry analysis

33. Bloomberg, "Bahrain Starts Output Cuts at World's Top Aluminum Smelter", 15 March 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-15/bahrain-starts-cutting-output-at-world-s-top-aluminum-smelter
34. Gulf Business, "Bahrain's Alba confirms Iranian strike as second GCC aluminium plant hit", 29 March 2026. https://gulfbusiness.com/en/2026/bahrain/bahrains-alba-confirms-iranian-strike-as-second-gcc-aluminium-plant-hit/
35. alcircle, "Iranian strikes hit EGA and Alba's aluminium smelters; workers injured, facilities damaged", 29 March 2026. https://www.alcircle.com/news/iranian-strikes-hit-ega-and-alba-s-aluminium-smelters-workers-injured-facilities-damaged-117823
36. S&P Global Commodity Insights, "Factbox: Attacks in the Middle East hit Gulf aluminum, steel plants amid war", 30 March 2026. https://spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/033026-factbox-attacks-in-the-middle-east-hit-gulf-aluminum-steel-plants-amid-war
37. CNBC, "Bahrain aluminum giant says Iranian attack targeted its facilities", 29 March 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/29/bahrain-aluminum-giant-says-iranian-attack-targeted-its-facilit.html
38. alcircle, "With Hormuz reopening and possibility of 700,000t of aluminium flowing into the market, here's the price outlook for H2 2026", August 2026. https://www.alcircle.com/news/with-hormuz-reopening-and-possibility-of-700-000t-of-aluminium-flowing-into-the-market-here-s-the-price-outlook-for-h2-2026-119953
39. alcircle, "2026 Middle East aluminium outlook: 5% of global supply, USD 7 million insurance and the Hormuz effect". https://www.alcircle.com/news/2026-middle-east-aluminium-outlook-5-of-global-supply-usd-7-million-insurance-and-the-hormuz-effect-120492
40. alcircle, "World primary aluminium production growth hits 5-year low in 2025 as GCC output weakens and China nears 45MT ceiling". https://www.alcircle.com/news/world-primary-aluminium-production-growth-hits-5-year-low-in-2025-as-gcc-output-weakens-and-china-nears-45mt-ceiling-117046
41. alcircle, "EGA in 2025: Record 2.83 million tonnes sold, but net profit slips to AED 2.12 billion", February 2026. https://www.alcircle.com/news/ega-in-2025-record-2-83-million-tonnes-sold-but-net-profit-slips-to-aed-2-12-billion-117477
42. alcircle, "Alba revises Line 7 plans, mulls over replacing Lines 1, 2, and 3 with modern facilities". https://www.alcircle.com/news/alba-revises-line-7-plans-mulls-over-replacing-lines-1-2-and-3-with-modern-facilities-112467
43. alcircle, "Alba's EternAl series expands with EternAl-AC, a new product line with carbon offsets mechanism", May 2025. https://www.alcircle.com/news/albas-eternal-series-expands-with-eternal-ac-a-new-product-line-with-carbon-offsets-mechanism-114144
44. alcircle, "Hydro maintains 16th percentile cost position with 2.1 Mt aluminium production capacity", 2025. https://www.alcircle.com/news/hydro-maintains-16th-percentile-cost-position-with-2-1-mt-aluminium-production-capacity-despite-downstream-retrenchment-117347
45. alcircle, "Alba begins controlled shutdown of 3 reduction lines amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions". https://www.alcircle.com/news/alba-begins-controlled-shutdown-of-3-reduction-lines-amid-strait-of-hormuz-disruptions-117640
46. alcircle, "Alba sales decline 17% in Q1 2026 as Gulf conflict disrupts aluminium supply chains". https://www.alcircle.com/news/alba-sales-decline-17-in-q1-2026-as-gulf-conflict-disrupts-aluminium-supply-chains-118429
47. Gulf Construction Online, "Alba 2025 profit surges 18.5pc to $582m on higher production, record sales". https://www.gulfconstructiononline.com/ArticleTA/389400/alba-2025-profit-surges-18.5pc-to-%24582m-on-higher-production-record-sales
48. Gulf Today, "Emirates Global Aluminium posts Dhs4.93 billion underlying net profit", 25 February 2026. https://www.gulftoday.ae/business/2026/02/25/emirates-global-aluminium-posts-dhs493-billion-underlying-net-profit
49. Zawya / Reuters, "Emirates Global Aluminium posts $1.34bln net profit in 2025", 25 February 2026. https://www.zawya.com/en/capital-markets/equities/emirates-global-aluminium-posts-1.34bln-net-profit-in-2025-358929
50. AGBI, "Maaden 2025 profit more than doubles as revenue crosses $10bn", March 2026. https://www.agbi.com/mining/2026/03/maaden-2025-profit-more-than-doubles-as-revenue-crosses-10bn/
51. AGBI, "Alba and Maaden 'terminate' merger discussions", January 2025. https://www.agbi.com/manufacturing/2025/01/alba-and-maaden-terminate-merger-discussions/
52. AGBI, "Iran war weighs on GCC aluminium output in March", April 2026. https://www.agbi.com/industry/2026/04/iran-war-weighs-on-gcc-aluminium-output-in-march/
53. Argaam, "Maaden acquires 20.62% stake in Bahrain's Alba", February 2025. https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1791381
54. Argaam, "Alba acquires Aluminium Dunkerque in $2.2B deal", 2026. https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1909723
55. Zawya press release, "Alba reinforces Bahrainisation with key managerial appointments". https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/people-in-the-news/alba-reinforces-bahrainisation-with-key-managerial-appointments-457800
56. Zawya press release, "Alba strengthens Bahraini leadership pipeline through strategic succession appointments", 4 March 2026. https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/people-in-the-news/alba-strengthens-bahraini-leadership-pipeline-through-strategic-succession-appointments-vc7hiubg
57. NPR, "Gulf aluminum shipments stuck as Strait of Hormuz blockades put a strain on supply", 21 April 2026. https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/nx-s1-5770135/gulf-aluminum-shipments-stuck-as-strait-of-hormuz-blockades-put-a-strain-on-supply
58. Fortune, "Bahrain output cuts world top aluminum smelter Alba Iran war", 15 March 2026. https://fortune.com/2026/03/15/bahrain-output-cuts-world-top-aluminum-smelter-alba-iran-war/
59. Industrial Info Resources, "Iranian Attacks Disable Middle East's Two Biggest Aluminum Smelters", 2026. https://www.industrialinfo.com/iirenergy/industry-news/article/iranian-attacks-disable-middle-easts-two-biggest-aluminum-smelters--355763
60. Reuters via CNBC, "Alcoa paying $85 mln cash to settle with Bahrain's Alba", 9 October 2012. https://www.cnbc.com/2012/10/09/update-1alcoa-paying-85-mln-cash-to-settle-with-bahrains-alba.html
61. Lexology, "Alcoa settles Bahrain FCPA bribery case with SEC and DOJ for $384 million". https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=55376a65-a15c-4f6d-8f96-60f87a7810a8
62. World Bank StAR Asset Recovery Watch database, entry ARW-14, "Aluminum Bahrain B.S.C. / Alcoa case, private civil action". https://star.worldbank.org/asset-recovery-watch-database/aluminum-bahrain-bsc-alcoa-case-private-civil-action
63. mining-technology, "Ma'aden to acquire SABIC's 20.62% stake in Bahrain's Alba", 2024. https://www.mining-technology.com/news/maaden-sabics-20-alba/
64. MEED, "Alba changes Line 7 expansion plans". https://www.meed.com/alba-changes-line-7-expansion-plans
65. TradeArabia, "Alba Line 7 'will add more environmentally friendly capacity'". https://www.tradearabia.com/News/268758/Alba-Line-7-will-add-more-environmentally-friendly-capacity

## Reference, regulatory and technical sources

66. Wikipedia, "Aluminium Bahrain", accessed 28 August 2026 (used for founding chronology and line commissioning dates only, cross-checked against Bechtel and Alba sources). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_Bahrain
67. EY Global Tax Alert, "Bahrain issues domestic minimum top-up tax legislation". https://www.ey.com/en_gl/technical/tax-alerts/bahrain-issues-domestic-minimum-top-up-tax-legislation
68. FTI Consulting, "Bahrain Introduces 15% Domestic Minimum Tax". https://www.fticonsulting.com/insights/articles/bahrain-introduces-15-per-cent-domestic-minimum-tax
69. BDO, "Bahrain: Domestic Minimum Top Up Tax to Apply in 2025". https://www.bdo.global/en-gb/insights/tax/world-wide-tax/bahrain-domestic-minimum-top-up-tax-to-apply-in-2025
70. NS Energy, "Alba's Power Station 5 (PS5) Block 4 project in Bahrain". https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/power-station-5-block-4-expansion-project/
71. Global Energy Monitor, "Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) power station", accessed 28 August 2026. https://www.gem.wiki/Aluminium_Bahrain_(ALBA)_power_station
72. US Department of Commerce, Bahrain Country Commercial Guide, National Industries and Petrochemicals chapters. https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/bahrain-national-industries
73. Mumtalakat, "HE Khalid Al Rumaihi" board profile and "Khalid Al Rumaihi Appointed As Mumtalakat CEO". https://www.mumtalakat.bh/our-board/he-khalid-al-rumaihi
74. Milken Institute, speaker profile, His Excellency Khalid Al Rumaihi. https://milkeninstitute.org/events/middle-east-and-africa-summit-2020/speakers/his-excellency-khalid-al-rumaihi
75. Forbes Middle East, Top 100 CEOs listings 2022 through 2025 and Sustainability Leaders 2025, Ali Al Baqali profiles. https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/lists/top-100-ceos-2025/ali-al-baqali/
76. The Corporate Treasurer, "Alba names Ricardo Santana as its new CFO", 2024. https://www.thecorporatetreasurer.com/article/alba-names-ricardo-santana-as-its-new-cfo/497610
77. International Aluminium Institute, primary aluminium production statistics, accessed 28 August 2026. https://international-aluminium.org/
78. Composite Power Group, Midal Cables manufacturer profile. https://compow.com/manufacturers/midal
79. Gulf Industry Online, Alba company profiles ("Alba makes a reach for greater heights"; "Alba vision takes in major expansions"). https://gulfindustryonline.com/Article/967

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**Document status:** Task 1 complete. Word count approximately 9,200 including the conflicts register and handoff notes; approximately 7,400 excluding sections 10 through 13.

**Next step:** Task 2 (Financial Modeling) may proceed independently. Before Task 3, resolve conflicts C1, C2, C4 and C6, and obtain Aluminium Dunkerque EBITDA, without which the acquisition multiple and pro-forma leverage cannot be bound to a source.

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