Assumptions blue workbook inputs
Revenue ModelIncome StatementCash Flow StatementBalance SheetScenariosDCF Inputs editable input estimate years Expand
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) | BHB: ALBH | Revenue and unit-cost model — US$ millions unless stated. Historicals FY2023A-FY2025A from audited consolidated financial statements; H1 2026A from reviewed interim statements. Blue = input, black = formula, green = link to another tab. Peg: BHD 1 = US$2.65957 (fixed).
| FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | Source / binding | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. PRODUCTION, SALES AND CAPACITY UTILISATION | Alba quarterly and full-year results releases | |||||||||
| Nameplate capacity reference (kt p.a.) | 1,623 | 1,623 | 1,623 | 1,623 | 1,623 | 1,623 | 1,623 | 1,623 | Alba corporate profile: "+1.623 million MT p.a." (2025 achieved output basis) | |
| Capacity utilisation (%) | 99.86% | 99.95% | 100.01% | 56.08% | 80.1% | 93.04% | 98.58% | 99.82% | ||
| Reduction lines in operation, equivalent (of 6) | 5.99 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 3.36 | 4.81 | 5.58 | 5.91 | 5.99 | Lines 1, 2 and 3, approximately 19% of capacity, were placed on a controlled shutdown from March 2026 (Alba announcement); shown here on a production-equivalent basis | |
| Net finished production (kt) | 1,621 | 1,622 | 1,623 | 910.20 | 1,300 | 1,510 | 1,600 | 1,620 | FY2023-25 Alba results releases; FY2026E = Q1 339.7 + Q2 155.5 actual + H2 estimate; FY2027E+ analyst estimate | |
| YoY growth (%) | 0.1% | 0.05% | -43.92% | 42.83% | 16.15% | 5.96% | 1.25% | |||
| Sales volume (kt) | 1,603 | 1,612 | 1,613 | 1,043 | 1,290 | 1,505 | 1,595 | 1,615 | FY2023-25 Alba results releases; H1 2026A 593.4 kt actual (Q1 312.6 + Q2 280.8); H2 2026E estimate | |
| YoY growth (%) | 0.56% | 0.08% | -35.33% | 23.64% | 16.67% | 5.98% | 1.25% | |||
| Value-added products (VAP) share of shipments (%) | 68% | 72% | 74% | 71% | 73% | 74% | 75% | 75% | Alba results releases: 68% (2023), 72% (2024), 74% (2025), 71% Q1 / 70% Q2 2026 | |
| VAP volume (kt) | 1,090 | 1,161 | 1,194 | 740.79 | 941.70 | 1,114 | 1,196 | 1,211 | ||
| Inventory movement (production less sales, kt) | 17.65 | 10.26 | 9.78 | -133.16 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| B. PRICE REALISATION (US$ per tonne) | LME and premium disclosed by Alba each quarter; forward path is the analyst base case | |||||||||
| LME cash aluminium price, average | 2,252 | 2,419 | 2,630 | 3,350 | 3,050 | 2,900 | 2,800 | 2,750 | FY2023-25 Alba IR presentations; FY2026E blends H1 2026A actual US$3,386/t with an H2 estimate; FY2030E US$2,750/t is the top of the CRU mid-cycle band Alba disclosed (US$2,650-2,750/t) | |
| YoY change (%) | 7.42% | 8.72% | 27.38% | -8.96% | -4.92% | -3.45% | -1.79% | |||
| Realised premium above LME | 335 | 268 | 332 | 430 | 380 | 350 | 335 | 330 | Alba disclosed realised premium: US$268/t (2024), US$332/t (2025), US$405/t Q1 2026, US$440/t H1 2026 | |
| Product mix and realisation adjustment | -35.12 | -37.00 | -31.78 | -200 | -120 | -100 | -95 | -95 | Calibrated so that modelled metal revenue reconciles to reported revenue from contracts with customers | |
| Realised price per tonne sold | 2,552 | 2,650 | 2,930 | 3,580 | 3,310 | 3,150 | 3,040 | 2,985 | ||
| YoY change (%) | 3.84% | 10.57% | 22.18% | -7.54% | -4.83% | -3.49% | -1.81% | |||
| Alumina Price Index (API), realised (3-4 month lag) | 410 | 444 | 503 | 345 | 360 | 385 | 400 | 410 | Alba discloses API US$444/t (2024), US$503/t (2025), US$340/t Q1 2026, US$308/t Q2 2026. CFO: purchase-to-P&L lag of three to four months (FY2025 call, 18 Feb 2026) | |
| API as % of LME | 18.21% | 18.35% | 19.13% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 13.28% | 14.29% | 14.91% | ||
| Aluminium-alumina spread (US$/t) | 1,842 | 1,975 | 2,127 | 3,005 | 2,690 | 2,515 | 2,400 | 2,340 | ||
| C. REVENUE BUILD | ALBA STANDALONE (US$m) | ||||||||||
| Metal revenue (realised price x sales volume) | 4,091 | 4,272 | 4,727 | 3,735 | 4,270 | 4,741 | 4,849 | 4,821 | ||
| Alumina trading, calcined petroleum coke and provisional pricing | 15.45 | 41.31 | 3.28 | 163 | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 | Audited note 19 disaggregation; H1 2026 reviewed note 8 (alumina trading BD26.3m, CPC BD6.9m) | |
| Total revenue | Alba standalone | 4,106 | 4,313 | 4,731 | 3,898 | 4,350 | 4,826 | 4,939 | 4,916 | ||
| YoY growth (%) | 5.04% | 9.68% | -17.6% | 11.59% | 10.94% | 2.34% | -0.47% | |||
| Reported revenue from contracts with customers (audited) | 4,106 | 4,313 | 4,731 | Audited consolidated statement of profit or loss, BD1,543,908k / BD1,621,728k / BD1,778,772k | ||||||
| Variance to reported (%) | 0% | 0% | 0% | |||||||
| D. REVENUE BY PRODUCT LINE (US$m) | FY2023-25 audited note 19(a) "Type of goods"; forecast mix is an analyst input, calibrated to H1 2026A | |||||||||
| Billet (extrusion ingot) | 1,384 | 1,468 | 1,808 | 1,403 | 1,609 | 1,810 | 1,877 | 1,868 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 33.7% | 34.04% | 38.21% | 36% | 37% | 37.5% | 38% | 38% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | 6.08% | 23.14% | -22.37% | 14.69% | 12.44% | 3.71% | -0.47% | |||
| Slab (rolling ingot) | 356.04 | 479.24 | 641.15 | 584.74 | 630.74 | 675.61 | 691.43 | 688.21 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 8.67% | 11.11% | 13.55% | 15% | 14.5% | 14% | 14% | 14% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | 34.6% | 33.79% | -8.8% | 7.87% | 7.11% | 2.34% | -0.47% | |||
| Foundry alloy | 1,169 | 1,206 | 1,161 | 740.66 | 935.23 | 1,086 | 1,111 | 1,131 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 28.47% | 27.95% | 24.55% | 19% | 21.5% | 22.5% | 22.5% | 23% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | 3.13% | -3.68% | -36.22% | 26.27% | 16.1% | 2.34% | 1.75% | |||
| Liquid metal | 701.23 | 768.01 | 900.70 | 799.14 | 782.98 | 820.38 | 839.60 | 835.68 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 17.08% | 17.81% | 19.04% | 20.5% | 18% | 17% | 17% | 17% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | 9.52% | 17.28% | -11.28% | -2.02% | 4.78% | 2.34% | -0.47% | |||
| Standard and T-ingots | 480.66 | 351.02 | 216.74 | 194.91 | 217.50 | 241.29 | 246.94 | 221.21 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 11.71% | 8.14% | 4.58% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4.5% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | -26.97% | -38.25% | -10.07% | 11.59% | 10.94% | 2.34% | -10.42% | |||
| Alumina trading | 21.21 | 23.57 | 0 | 116.95 | 108.75 | 120.64 | 98.78 | 98.32 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 0.52% | 0.55% | 0% | 3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2% | 2% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | 11.11% | -100% | n.m. | -7.01% | 10.94% | -18.13% | -0.47% | |||
| Calcined petroleum coke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38.98 | 43.50 | 48.26 | 49.39 | 49.16 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | 11.59% | 10.94% | 2.34% | -0.47% | |||
| Provisional pricing adjustments | -5.76 | 17.74 | 3.28 | 19.49 | 21.75 | 24.13 | 24.69 | 24.58 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | -0.14% | 0.41% | 0.07% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | -407.89% | -81.5% | 493.9% | 11.59% | 10.94% | 2.34% | -0.47% | |||
| Total revenue by product line | 4,106 | 4,313 | 4,731 | 3,898 | 4,350 | 4,826 | 4,939 | 4,916 | ||
| Cross-check vs total Alba revenue (must be nil) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Memo: value-added product revenue (billet, slab, foundry, liquid) | 3,610 | 3,921 | 4,511 | 3,528 | 3,958 | 4,391 | 4,519 | 4,523 | ||
| Memo: VAP share of product revenue (%) | 87.92% | 90.9% | 95.35% | 90.5% | 91% | 91% | 91.5% | 92% | ||
| E. REVENUE BY GEOGRAPHY (US$m) | FY2023-25 audited note 19(b) "Geographical markets"; forecast mix is an analyst input | |||||||||
| Kingdom of Bahrain (liquid metal cluster) | 977.94 | 1,094 | 1,297 | 1,286 | 1,305 | 1,375 | 1,383 | 1,352 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 23.82% | 25.36% | 27.43% | 33% | 30% | 28.5% | 28% | 27.5% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | 11.85% | 18.62% | -0.85% | 1.44% | 5.39% | 0.55% | -2.24% | |||
| Europe (Alba exports) | 1,008 | 1,220 | 1,265 | 857.61 | 1,044 | 1,206 | 1,259 | 1,278 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 24.55% | 28.28% | 26.74% | 22% | 24% | 25% | 25.5% | 26% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | 21.01% | 3.72% | -32.2% | 21.73% | 15.56% | 4.39% | 1.49% | |||
| Rest of Middle East and North Africa | 856.52 | 693.52 | 791.02 | 877.10 | 826.48 | 844.51 | 839.60 | 835.68 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 20.86% | 16.08% | 16.72% | 22.5% | 19% | 17.5% | 17% | 17% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | -19.03% | 14.06% | 10.88% | -5.77% | 2.18% | -0.58% | -0.47% | |||
| Asia | 606.97 | 654.83 | 526.57 | 350.84 | 478.49 | 579.09 | 592.66 | 589.89 | ||
| share of Alba revenue (%) | 14.78% | 15.18% | 11.13% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | 7.89% | -19.59% | -33.37% | 36.38% | 21.02% | 2.34% | -0.47% | |||
| Americas | 656.78 | 651.27 | 850.70 | 526.26 | 695.98 | 820.38 | 864.29 | 860.26 |