Assumptions blue workbook inputs
Revenue ModelIncome StatementCash Flow StatementBalance SheetScenariosDCF Inputs editable input estimate years Expand
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) | Consolidated income statement and projections — US$ millions unless stated. FY2023A-FY2025A audited; FY2026E-FY2030E Al Ramz Investment Research estimates. Expenses shown in parentheses. Estimate columns shaded.
| FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | Source / binding | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF PROFIT OR LOSS | ||||||||||
| Revenue from contracts with customers | 4,106 | 4,313 | 4,731 | 3,898 | 5,374 | 5,799 | 5,880 | 5,841 | Audited note 19 / Revenue Model tab section G | |
| YoY growth (%) | 5.04% | 9.68% | -17.6% | 37.85% | 7.92% | 1.39% | -0.67% | |||
| Cost of revenue | -3,432 | -3,481 | -3,841 | -2,970 | -4,048 | -4,444 | -4,771 | -4,862 | Audited statement of profit or loss / Revenue Model tab section H unit-cost build | |
| GROSS PROFIT | 674.18 | 832.53 | 889.85 | 928.03 | 1,326 | 1,355 | 1,109 | 978.62 | ||
| Gross margin (%) | 16.42% | 19.3% | 18.81% | 23.81% | 24.67% | 23.36% | 18.86% | 16.76% | ||
| OTHER INCOME AND OPERATING EXPENSES | ||||||||||
| Other operating income (water sales, insurance recoveries, miscellaneous) | 9.76 | 12.10 | 11.64 | 77 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | Audited note 20 less interest income. FY2026E includes the Q2 2026 recovery of BD26.2m recognised in other income in the reviewed interim accounts | |
| Interest income | 9.00 | 8.47 | 18.98 | 16.36 | 54.27 | 46.73 | 43.87 | 36.57 | Audited note 20. Forecast: yield on opening cash and deposits | |
| Other income - net | 18.76 | 20.58 | 30.63 | 93.36 | 66.27 | 58.73 | 55.87 | 48.57 | ||
| Gain / (loss) on foreign exchange | 7.86 | -4.09 | 18.92 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| General and administrative expenses | -103.89 | -111.54 | -134.78 | -172 | -145 | -150 | -155 | -158 | Audited note 21.1. FY2026E elevated by Aluminium Dunkerque transaction costs (H1 2026 actual BD40.3m) | |
| % of revenue | 2.53% | 2.59% | 2.85% | 4.41% | 2.7% | 2.59% | 2.64% | 2.71% | ||
| Selling and distribution expenses | -148.35 | -163.89 | -133.48 | -136 | -145 | -152 | -158 | -160 | Audited note 21.1; principally freight (BD47.2m in FY2025) and marketing organisation costs | |
| % of revenue | 3.61% | 3.8% | 2.82% | 3.49% | 2.7% | 2.62% | 2.69% | 2.74% | ||
| Directors' remuneration | -1.12 | -1.12 | -1.12 | -1.10 | -1.10 | -1.10 | -1.10 | -1.10 | Audited note 25: BD420k per annum | |
| Total operating expenses | -253.36 | -276.55 | -269.38 | -309.10 | -291.10 | -303.10 | -314.10 | -319.10 | ||
| % of revenue | 6.17% | 6.41% | 5.69% | 7.93% | 5.42% | 5.23% | 5.34% | 5.46% | ||
| EBITDA, DEPRECIATION AND OPERATING PROFIT | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 803.52 | 939.15 | 1,078 | 1,129 | 1,619 | 1,641 | 1,393 | 1,264 | ||
| EBITDA margin (%) | 19.57% | 21.77% | 22.8% | 28.97% | 30.14% | 28.29% | 23.7% | 21.63% | ||
| EBITDA as disclosed by Alba | 804 | 939 | 1,078 | FY2023 and FY2025 IR presentations, key financial performance indicators | ||||||
| Depreciation and amortisation | Alba | -356.08 | -366.67 | -408.38 | -421.86 | -431.99 | -443.73 | -456.09 | -468.84 | Audited note 4. Forecast: depreciation rate applied to average gross property, plant and equipment | |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Aluminium Dunkerque | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -86.67 | -86.67 | -86.67 | -86.67 | ||
| Total depreciation and amortisation | -356.08 | -366.67 | -408.38 | -421.86 | -518.66 | -530.40 | -542.75 | -555.51 | ||
| Memo: charged to cost of revenue (shown positive; feeds the unit cost stack) | 350.38 | 360.39 | 401.98 | 415.12 | 425.08 | 436.64 | 448.79 | 461.34 | Audited note 4: BD151,144k of BD153,549k charged to cost of revenue in FY2025 | |
| EBIT / OPERATING PROFIT | 447.44 | 572.48 | 670.01 | 707.29 | 1,101 | 1,110 | 850.65 | 708.09 | ||
| EBIT margin (%) | 10.9% | 13.27% | 14.16% | 18.14% | 20.48% | 19.15% | 14.47% | 12.12% | ||
| FINANCE, TAX AND EARNINGS | ||||||||||
| Finance costs | -165.51 | -101.03 | -90.85 | -78 | -184.37 | -130.21 | -90.25 | -54.50 | Audited note 22. FY2026E calibrated to H1 2026 actual of BD13.8m plus H2 estimate; FY2027E onward is the contractual rate applied to opening debt balances (Balance Sheet tab, debt schedule) | |
| Realised gain on settlement of IRS cash flow hedge | 35.37 | 16.23 | 11.14 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Audited note 17; amortising swap with NBB, notional BD128.9m, expiring 29 April 2030 | |
| Changes in fair value of derivative financial instruments | -2.96 | 4.24 | -2.31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| PROFIT BEFORE TAX | 314.34 | 491.92 | 587.99 | 634.29 | 919.33 | 983.21 | 763.40 | 656.59 | ||
| Effective tax rate (%) | 0.14% | 0.23% | 1.08% | 1.5% | 5% | 15% | 15% | 15% | Alba has historically been taxed only on its US subsidiary (audited note 18). Bahrain introduced a 15% Domestic Minimum Top-up Tax under Decree Law 11 of 2024. Management stated on 18 February 2026 that it does not foresee an impact in 2026; the base case phases the charge in from FY2027E and reaches 15% from FY2028E | |
| Income tax expense | -0.44 | -1.11 | -6.37 | -9.51 | -45.97 | -147.48 | -114.51 | -98.49 | ||
| PROFIT FOR THE YEAR | 313.90 | 490.80 | 581.61 | 624.77 | 873.36 | 835.73 | 648.89 | 558.10 | ||
| Net margin (%) | 7.64% | 11.38% | 12.29% | 16.03% | 16.25% | 14.41% | 11.04% | 9.56% | ||
| Attributable to non-controlling interest | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 7.17 | 3.85 | 2.20 | 1.37 | Bpifrance 6% of the Aluminium Dunkerque holding company; acquisition facility interest is borne at the Alba level and is not allocated to the non-controlling interest | |
| Attributable to equity holders of Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. | 313.90 | 490.80 | 581.61 | 624.77 | 866.20 | 831.88 | 646.69 | 556.73 | ||
| Profit as reported (audited) | 313.90 | 490.80 | 581.61 | BD118,025k / BD184,542k / BD218,687k | ||||||
| PER SHARE DATA | ||||||||||
| Weighted average shares outstanding, net of treasury (m) | 1,422 | 1,416 | 1,415 | 1,416 | 1,416 | 1,416 | 1,416 | 1,416 | Audited note 23: 1,415,914k (FY2024) and 1,415,499k (FY2025); 1,416,048k shares outstanding at 31 December 2025 (note 8) | |
| Basic and diluted EPS (US$) | 0.22 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.46 | 0.39 | ||
| Basic and diluted EPS (fils) | 83.00 | 130.33 | 154.49 | 165.89 | 230.00 | 220.89 | 171.71 | 147.83 | Reported: 83 fils (FY2023), 130 fils (FY2024), 154 fils (FY2025), 99 fils (H1 2026) | |
| Dividends paid in the year (US$m) | 372.74 | 129.87 | 139.79 | 230 | 218.67 | 303.17 | 291.16 | 226.34 | ||
| Dividend per share paid (fils) | 98.56 | 34.49 | 37.13 | 61.07 | 58.06 | 80.50 | 77.31 | 60.10 | FY2025: final 2024 dividend of 26.58 fils plus 2025 interim of 10.55 fils (audited note 12) | |
| Implied payout on prior-year profit (%) | 41.37% | 28.48% | 39.55% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% | Policy stated twice by the CFO on the FY2025 call: 35% payout ratio | ||
| OPERATING AND RETURNS METRICS | ||||||||||
| Net finished production, Alba (kt) | 1,621 | 1,622 | 1,623 | 910.20 | 1,300 | 1,510 | 1,600 | 1,620 | ||
| Sales volume, consolidated (kt) | 1,603 | 1,612 | 1,613 | 1,043 | 1,585 | 1,800 | 1,890 | 1,910 | ||
| Realised price per tonne, Alba (US$/t) | 2,552 | 2,650 | 2,930 | 3,580 | 3,310 | 3,150 | 3,040 | 2,985 | ||
| Cash cost per tonne produced, Alba (US$/t) | 1,925 | 1,937 | 2,133 | 2,391 | 2,115 | 2,067 | 2,148 | 2,170 | ||
| EBITDA per tonne sold (US$/t) | 501.25 | 582.60 | 668.41 | 1,082 | 1,022 | 911.57 | 737.25 | 661.57 | ||
| Return on average equity (%) | 9.94% | 10.91% | 10.88% | 13.83% | 12.14% | 8.87% | 7.29% | |||
| Return on capital employed (%) | 9.23% | 10.75% | 10% | 13.36% | 12.08% | 9.35% | 7.92% | |||
| Revenue CAGR FY2025A-FY2030E (%) | 4.3% | |||||||||
| EBITDA CAGR FY2025A-FY2030E (%) | 3.22% | |||||||||
| FY2023 is presented as originally reported in the FY2024 audited accounts. FY2024 comparatives were reclassified in the FY2025 accounts between cost of revenue, general and administrative expenses and other income; profit before tax, EBITDA and profit for the year are unaffected. |