Assumptions blue workbook inputs
Revenue ModelIncome StatementCash Flow StatementBalance SheetScenariosDCF Inputs editable input estimate years Expand
| Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) | Bull, base and bear scenarios | ||||||||||
| US$ millions unless stated. The base case links live to the Revenue Model, Income Statement and Balance Sheet tabs, so it always equals the model. The bull and bear cases are independent input blocks. | ||||||||||
| SCENARIO DEFINITIONS | ||||||||||
| Bull case | "The disruption holds" | ||||||||||
| Strait of Hormuz trade remains constrained through 2027. LME averages US$3,500/t in 2027 and settles at US$3,100/t by 2030, with realised premiums peaking at US$460/t. Alba restarts Lines 1 to 3 through late 2026 and recovers to 1,420kt of production in 2027 and the full 1,620kt run rate from 2028. Alumina stays cheap on Asian oversupply. Aluminium Dunkerque completes on schedule and delivers a 23% EBITDA margin in 2027. Bahrain grants Alba relief from the Domestic Minimum Top-up Tax. Payout rises to 40%. | ||||||||||
| Base case | "Orderly normalisation" | ||||||||||
| LME normalises from US$3,350/t in 2026 to US$2,750/t by 2030, the top of the CRU mid-cycle band Alba disclosed. Production recovers to 1,300kt in 2027, 1,510kt in 2028 and 1,620kt by 2030; no New Replacement Line capacity is modelled. Realised premiums fall from US$430/t to US$330/t as US Section 232 distortions unwind. Aluminium Dunkerque completes at the end of 2026 and contributes from 2027 at a 21% EBITDA margin. The Domestic Minimum Top-up Tax phases in from 2027 and reaches 15% from 2028. Payout held at the stated 35%. | ||||||||||
| Bear case | "Hormuz reopens, volumes do not" | ||||||||||
| The chokepoint reopens in 2027, releasing the roughly 700kt of held metal the industry has flagged. LME reverts to US$2,700/t in 2027 and US$2,500/t by 2029, below the CRU mid-cycle band, and realised premiums fall to US$275/t. Alba is slow to restart: the cold outage on Lines 1 to 3, commissioned between 1971 and 1981, requires cathode relining, so production only reaches 1,150kt in 2027 and 1,550kt by 2030, with capital expenditure raised accordingly. Alumina normalises upward while carbon stays firm. Aluminium Dunkerque completes into a falling market and is barely EBITDA-positive. The Domestic Minimum Top-up Tax applies in full from 2027. Payout is cut to 25%. | ||||||||||
| BULL CASE | ||||||||||
| FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | |||
| LME cash price (US$/t) | 3,350 | 3,500 | 3,300 | 3,150 | 3,100 | |||||
| Realised premium above LME (US$/t) | 430 | 460 | 430 | 410 | 400 | |||||
| Product mix and realisation adjustment (US$/t) | -200 | -120 | -100 | -95 | -95 | |||||
| Realised price per tonne (US$/t) | 3,580 | 3,840 | 3,630 | 3,465 | 3,405 | |||||
| Net finished production, Alba (kt) | 930 | 1,420 | 1,600 | 1,620 | 1,620 | |||||
| Sales volume, Alba (kt) | 1,060 | 1,400 | 1,595 | 1,615 | 1,615 | |||||
| Metal revenue | 3,795 | 5,376 | 5,790 | 5,596 | 5,499 | |||||
| Other revenue (alumina trading, coke, provisional pricing) | 163 | 90 | 95 | 100 | 105 | |||||
| Revenue, Alba standalone | 3,958 | 5,466 | 5,885 | 5,696 | 5,604 | |||||
| Revenue, Aluminium Dunkerque | 0 | 1,155 | 1,110 | 1,075 | 1,060 | |||||
| TOTAL REVENUE | 3,958 | 6,621 | 6,995 | 6,771 | 6,664 | |||||
| Realised alumina price (US$/t) | 340 | 350 | 375 | 390 | 400 | |||||
| Alumina cost | 610.27 | 959.21 | 1,158 | 1,219 | 1,251 | |||||
| Natural gas price (US$/MMBtu) | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 5 | 5 | |||||
| Energy cost | 426.87 | 651.78 | 734.40 | 826.20 | 826.20 | |||||
| Carbon and other raw materials (US$/t) | 321 | 315 | 310 | 310 | 310 | |||||
| Carbon and other raw material cost | 298.53 | 447.30 | 496 | 502.20 | 502.20 | |||||
| Fixed and semi-fixed production costs | 560 | 600 | 620 | 635 | 650 | |||||
| Other production, logistics and curtailment costs | 300 | 260 | 250 | 250 | 250 | |||||
| Depreciation charged to cost of revenue, Alba | 415.12 | 425.08 | 436.64 | 448.79 | 461.34 | |||||
| Cost of goods produced | 2,611 | 3,343 | 3,695 | 3,882 | 3,940 | |||||
| Unit cost of goods produced (US$/t) | 2,807 | 2,354 | 2,309 | 2,396 | 2,432 | |||||
| Cost of revenue, Alba | 2,976 | 3,296 | 3,683 | 3,870 | 3,928 | |||||
| EBITDA, Aluminium Dunkerque | 0 | 255 | 225 | 200 | 185 | |||||
| Depreciation, Aluminium Dunkerque | 0 | 86.67 | 86.67 | 86.67 | 86.67 | |||||
| Cost of revenue, Aluminium Dunkerque | 0 | 986.67 | 971.67 | 961.67 | 961.67 | |||||
| TOTAL COST OF REVENUE | 2,976 | 4,283 | 4,655 | 4,831 | 4,890 | |||||
| GROSS PROFIT | 982.07 | 2,338 | 2,340 | 1,940 | 1,774 | |||||
| Other income less administrative and selling expenses | -38 | -278 | -290 | -301 | -306 | |||||
| Total depreciation and amortisation | 421.86 | 518.66 | 530.40 | 542.75 | 555.51 | |||||
| EBITDA | 1,366 | 2,579 | 2,580 | 2,181 | 2,024 | |||||
| EBITDA margin (%) | 34.51% | 38.95% | 36.89% | 32.22% | 30.37% | |||||
| EBIT | 944.07 | 2,060 | 2,050 | 1,639 | 1,468 | |||||
| Net finance costs | -78 | -180 | -120 | -80 | -45 | |||||
| PROFIT BEFORE TAX | 866.07 | 1,880 | 1,930 | 1,559 | 1,423 | |||||
| Effective tax rate (%) | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | |||||
| NET INCOME | 853.08 | 1,852 | 1,901 | 1,535 | 1,402 | |||||
| EPS (fils) | 226.52 | 491.72 | 504.70 | 407.68 | 372.23 | |||||
| Capital expenditure | 220 | 280 | 300 | 310 | 320 | |||||
| Net working capital (27.5% of revenue) | 1,088 | 1,821 | 1,924 | 1,862 | 1,833 | |||||
| Change in net working capital | -212.57 | 732.38 | 102.81 | -61.57 | -29.40 | |||||
| FREE CASH FLOW (EBITDA less tax, net finance, capex and working capital) | 1,268 | 1,358 | 2,028 | 1,830 | 1,667 | |||||
| Dividends paid | -232.64 | -341.23 | -740.74 | -760.30 | -614.14 | |||||
| Aluminium Dunkerque acquisition, net of Bpifrance contribution | -2,083 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| NET DEBT (closing) | 1,612 | 595.22 | -692.38 | -1,762 | -2,814 | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA (x) | 1.18 | 0.23 | -0.27 | -0.81 | -1.39 | |||||
| BASE CASE | ||||||||||
| FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | |||
| LME cash price (US$/t) | 3,350 | 3,050 | 2,900 | 2,800 | 2,750 | |||||
| Realised premium above LME (US$/t) | 430 | 380 | 350 | 335 | 330 | |||||
| Product mix and realisation adjustment (US$/t) | -200 | -120 | -100 | -95 | -95 | |||||
| Realised price per tonne (US$/t) | 3,580 | 3,310 | 3,150 | 3,040 | 2,985 | |||||
| Net finished production, Alba (kt) | 910.20 | 1,300 | 1,510 | 1,600 | 1,620 | |||||
| Sales volume, Alba (kt) | 1,043 | 1,290 | 1,505 | 1,595 | 1,615 | |||||
| Metal revenue | 3,735 | 4,270 | 4,741 | 4,849 | 4,821 | |||||
| Other revenue (alumina trading, coke, provisional pricing) | 163 | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 | |||||
| Revenue, Alba standalone | 3,898 | 4,350 | 4,826 | 4,939 | 4,916 | |||||
| Revenue, Aluminium Dunkerque | 0 | 1,024 | 973.50 | 941.05 | 924.83 | |||||
| TOTAL REVENUE | 3,898 | 5,374 | 5,799 | 5,880 | 5,841 | |||||
| Realised alumina price (US$/t) | 345 | 360 | 385 | 400 | 410 | |||||
| Alumina cost | 606.06 | 903.24 | 1,122 | 1,235 | 1,282 | |||||
| Natural gas price (US$/MMBtu) | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 5.25 | 5.25 | |||||
| Energy cost | 417.78 | 596.70 | 693.09 | 856.80 | 867.51 |