Assumptions blue workbook inputs
Revenue ModelIncome StatementCash Flow StatementBalance SheetScenariosDCF Inputs editable input estimate years Expand
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) | DCF inputs and valuation bridge (prepared for Task 3) — US$ millions unless stated. Unlevered free cash flow is derived from the projected income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement on this workbook. No discount rate or terminal value is applied here; that is Task 3.
| FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | Source / binding | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW | ||||||||||
| EBIT / operating profit | 447.44 | 572.48 | 670.01 | 707.29 | 1,101 | 1,110 | 850.65 | 708.09 | ||
| Cash tax rate (%) | 0.14% | 0.23% | 1.08% | 1.5% | 5% | 15% | 15% | 15% | ||
| Taxes on EBIT | -0.63 | -1.30 | -7.26 | -10.61 | -55.04 | -166.56 | -127.60 | -106.21 | ||
| NOPAT | 446.81 | 571.18 | 662.75 | 696.68 | 1,046 | 943.86 | 723.05 | 601.87 | ||
| Add: depreciation and amortisation | 356.08 | 366.67 | 408.38 | 421.86 | 518.66 | 530.40 | 542.75 | 555.51 | ||
| Less: capital expenditure | -352.47 | -276.59 | -285.95 | -220 | -340 | -360 | -370 | -380 | ||
| Net working capital | 1,086 | 1,233 | 1,301 | 1,208 | 1,402 | 1,525 | 1,586 | 1,594 | ||
| Less: increase in net working capital | -147.53 | -67.44 | 293.14 | -194.87 | -122.47 | -60.91 | -7.84 | FY2026E excludes the working capital acquired with Aluminium Dunkerque, which is part of the acquisition consideration rather than an operating movement | ||
| UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW | 450.42 | 513.74 | 717.73 | 1,192 | 1,029 | 991.79 | 834.90 | 769.54 | ||
| Unlevered FCF margin (%) | 10.97% | 11.91% | 15.17% | 30.57% | 19.16% | 17.1% | 14.2% | 13.18% | ||
| YoY growth (%) | 14.06% | 39.71% | 66.04% | -13.61% | -3.66% | -15.82% | -7.83% | |||
| TERMINAL YEAR METRICS (FY2030E) | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 5,841 | FY2030E is a deliberately mid-cycle terminal year: LME at US$2,750/t, the top of the CRU band Alba disclosed, and production at the pre-disruption 1,620kt run rate | ||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,264 | |||||||||
| EBITDA margin (%) | 21.63% | |||||||||
| EBIT | 708.09 | |||||||||
| NOPAT | 601.87 | |||||||||
| Depreciation and amortisation | 555.51 | |||||||||
| Capital expenditure | -380 | |||||||||
| Unlevered free cash flow | 769.54 | |||||||||
| Capital expenditure / depreciation (x) | 0.68 | |||||||||
| Sales volume, consolidated (kt) | 1,910 | |||||||||
| LME assumption (US$/t) | 2,750 | |||||||||
| EQUITY VALUE BRIDGE AND MARKET DATA (as at 28 August 2026) | ||||||||||
| Gross loans and borrowings, FY2025A (US$m) | 972.91 | Audited note 13: BD365,816k carrying value | ||||||||
| Less: bank balances and cash, FY2025A (US$m) | -408.90 | Audited note 7: BD153,748k | ||||||||
| Net debt, FY2025A (US$m) | 564.01 | Reconciles to the US$564m Alba discloses | ||||||||
| Net debt, FY2026E (US$m) | 1,759 | After the Aluminium Dunkerque acquisition drawdown | ||||||||
| Non-controlling interest, FY2026E (US$m) | 119.53 | Bpifrance 6% of the Dunkerque holding company | ||||||||
| Shares outstanding, net of treasury (m) | 1,416 | Audited note 8: 1,416,047,742 shares at 31 December 2025 | ||||||||
| Last close (BHD) | 0.88 | Bahrain Bourse quote, late August 2026. Task 3 must re-source this from Bloomberg or the Bourse directly for the cover-page market_data binding required by the report contract | ||||||||
| BHD per USD peg | 2.66 | Fixed peg, USD 1 = BHD 0.376 | ||||||||
| Last close (US$) | 2.34 | Computed | ||||||||
| Market capitalisation (US$m) | 3,307 | Computed | ||||||||
| Enterprise value at FY2025A net debt (US$m) | 3,871 | Computed | ||||||||
| IMPLIED TRADING MULTIPLES AT THE LAST CLOSE | ||||||||||
| EV / EBITDA (x) | 5.86 | 4.70 | 3.59 | 4.49 | 2.74 | 2.35 | 2.43 | 2.28 | Multiples computed on the market capitalisation at the last close and each year-end net debt. Task 3 replaces the market capitalisation with the derived fair value | |
| EV / sales (x) | 1.15 | 1.02 | 0.82 | 1.30 | 0.82 | 0.66 | 0.58 | 0.49 | ||
| P / E (x) | 10.53 | 6.74 | 5.69 | 5.29 | 3.82 | 3.97 | 5.11 | 5.94 | ||
| P / book (x) | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.42 | ||
| Free cash flow yield (%) | 15.78% | 15.5% | 22.51% | 35.73% | 29.86% | 29.25% | 24.41% | 22.49% | ||
| Dividend yield (%) | 11.27% | 3.93% | 4.23% | 6.96% | 6.61% | 9.17% | 8.81% | 6.85% | ||
| EV / tonne of annual capacity (US$/t) | 2,904 | 2,718 | 2,385 | 5,566 | 2,768 | 2,128 | 1,781 | 1,503 | ||
| DISCOUNT RATE BUILDING BLOCKS (analyst inputs for Task 3) | ||||||||||
| Risk-free rate, Bahrain sovereign US dollar curve (%) | 6.2% | To be re-sourced at Task 3 from Bloomberg. Bahrain sovereign USD yields are materially above the US Treasury curve and are the appropriate base for a Bahraini single-asset issuer | ||||||||
| Equity risk premium (%) | 5.5% | Al Ramz house assumption | ||||||||
| Country / single-asset concentration premium (%) | 2% | Reflects the single-site concentration demonstrated on 28 March 2026 and the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint exposure. Analyst judgement, to be confirmed at Task 3 | ||||||||
| Levered beta (x) | 1.35 | Aluminium producer peer beta, to be re-sourced at Task 3 | ||||||||
| Cost of equity (%) | 15.62% | Risk free plus beta times equity risk premium plus concentration premium | ||||||||
| Pre-tax cost of debt (%) | 5.8% | Weighted average of the facilities in audited note 13 | ||||||||
| Marginal tax rate (%) | 15% | Bahrain Domestic Minimum Top-up Tax, Decree Law 11 of 2024 | ||||||||
| After-tax cost of debt (%) | 4.93% | Pre-tax cost of debt times one less the marginal tax rate | ||||||||
| Target debt / total capital (%) | 25% | Through-cycle gearing, analyst assumption | ||||||||
| WACC (%) | 12.95% | Weighted average | ||||||||
| Terminal growth rate (%) | 2% | Below long-run global aluminium demand growth, reflecting no modelled New Replacement Line capacity | ||||||||
| SCENARIO UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW (for the Task 3 valuation range) | ||||||||||
| Bull case free cash flow | 1,268 | 1,358 | 2,028 | 1,830 | 1,667 | From the Scenarios tab, bull block | ||||
| Base case free cash flow | 1,051 | 643.46 | 886.52 | 796.93 | 741.85 | From the Scenarios tab, base block | ||||
| Bear case free cash flow | 1,044 | -79.46 | -5.42 | 41.91 | 125.12 | From the Scenarios tab, bear block | ||||
| Cumulative FY2026E-FY2030E, bull / base / bear (US$m) | Bull | Base | Bear | |||||||
| 8,150 | 4,119 | 1,126 | ||||||||
| HANDOFF TO TASK 3 | ||||||||||
| The house rating rule is Over-Weight above +15% upside, Under-Weight below -15% and Equal-Weight in between. At the BHD 0.878 last close carried here, Over-Weight requires a fair value above BHD 1.010 and Under-Weight a fair value below BHD 0.746. | ||||||||||
| The market capitalisation and last close on this tab are provisional. The report structure contract requires the cover page to carry a market_data typed binding, so Task 3 must re-source the last close, shares outstanding, average daily volume, free float and the 52-week range from Bloomberg or the Bahrain Bourse directly before the cover is assembled. | ||||||||||
| Precedent transaction anchor: Ma'aden acquired 20.62% of Alba from SABIC for BD363.08 million, completed 17 February 2025, implying BHD 1.24 per share and roughly BHD 1.76 billion for the whole equity. | ||||||||||
| The single largest information gap remains Aluminium Dunkerque. No revenue, EBITDA or balance sheet has been disclosed. The consolidation switch on the Revenue Model tab allows Task 3 to value Alba standalone and to present the Dunkerque contribution as a separate, clearly labelled increment. | ||||||||||
| Peers for the comparable company analysis, per the coverage instruction: SABIC (2010.SR), Emirates Global Aluminium (unlisted, so a private comparable) and Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA). Alcoa is the only listed pure-play primary aluminium comparable and reported a FY2025 adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.6% against Alba's 22.8%. Ma'aden (1211.SR) and Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL) should be added as extended comparables. | ||||||||||
| No New Replacement Line capacity or capital expenditure is in this model, so any valuation credit for Line 7 must be added as an explicit, separately disclosed option value at Task 3. |