Assumptions blue workbook inputs
Revenue ModelIncome StatementCash Flow StatementBalance SheetScenariosDCF Inputs editable input estimate years Expand
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) | Consolidated cash flow statement and projections — US$ millions. Presented on a bank balances and cash basis: movements in deposits with an original maturity of more than three months are excluded from investing activities so that the statement reconciles directly to the balance sheet.
| FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | Source / binding | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPERATING ACTIVITIES | ||||||||||
| Profit before tax | 314.34 | 491.92 | 587.99 | 634.29 | 919.33 | 983.21 | 763.40 | 656.59 | ||
| Depreciation and amortisation | 356.08 | 366.67 | 408.38 | 421.86 | 518.66 | 530.40 | 542.75 | 555.51 | ||
| Finance costs | 165.51 | 101.03 | 90.85 | 78 | 184.37 | 130.21 | 90.25 | 54.50 | ||
| Interest income | -9.00 | -8.47 | -18.98 | -16.36 | -54.27 | -46.73 | -43.87 | -36.57 | ||
| Realised gain on settlement of interest rate swap | -35.37 | -16.23 | -11.14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Other non-cash adjustments (provisions, credit losses, disposals, write-offs) | 16.69 | 13.97 | 42.54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Audited cash flow statement adjustments. Held at nil in the forecast | |
| Foreign exchange on loans, borrowings and bank balances | 5.77 | 1.41 | -1.28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Operating profit before working capital changes | 814.02 | 950.30 | 1,098 | 1,118 | 1,568 | 1,597 | 1,353 | 1,230 | ||
| Working capital changes: | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 23.80 | -150.60 | 48.20 | 213.01 | -131.25 | -109.02 | -89.79 | -25.03 | ||
| Trade and other receivables | 23.09 | -119.67 | 20.26 | 125.98 | -68.35 | -63.00 | -11.93 | 5.81 | ||
| Trade and other payables | 18.68 | 115.24 | -130.76 | -45.85 | 4.73 | 49.55 | 40.81 | 11.38 | ||
| Net change in working capital | 65.56 | -155.03 | -62.31 | 293.14 | -194.87 | -122.47 | -60.91 | -7.84 | ||
| Net cash generated from operations | 879.57 | 795.27 | 1,036 | 1,411 | 1,373 | 1,475 | 1,292 | 1,222 | ||
| Employees' end of service benefits paid | -3.22 | -6.24 | -3.61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Income tax paid | -2.22 | -0.01 | -2.03 | -9.51 | -45.97 | -147.48 | -114.51 | -98.49 | ||
| NET CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES | 874.13 | 789.02 | 1,030 | 1,401 | 1,327 | 1,327 | 1,177 | 1,124 | Audited: BD328,673k (FY2023), BD296,671k (FY2024), BD387,434k (FY2025); H1 2026 BD307,590k | |
| INVESTING ACTIVITIES | ||||||||||
| Purchase of property, plant and equipment | Alba | -352.47 | -276.59 | -285.95 | -220 | -280 | -300 | -310 | -320 | ||
| Purchase of property, plant and equipment | Aluminium Dunkerque | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -60 | -60 | -60 | -60 | ||
| Acquisition of Aluminium Dunkerque, net of cash acquired | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2,200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | US$2.2bn enterprise value; completion guided for Q4 2026 subject to French foreign direct investment and EU regulatory clearance (reviewed interim note 2) | |
| Proceeds from disposal of property, plant and equipment | 0.34 | 0.10 | 1.98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Interest received | 9.53 | 8.92 | 18.84 | 16.36 | 54.27 | 46.73 | 43.87 | 36.57 | ||
| NET CASH FLOWS USED IN INVESTING ACTIVITIES | -342.59 | -267.57 | -265.13 | -2,404 | -285.73 | -313.27 | -326.13 | -343.43 | ||
| FREE CASH FLOW (operating cash flow less capital expenditure) | 521.66 | 512.43 | 744.45 | 1,181 | 987.26 | 967.15 | 807.12 | 743.70 | ||
| Free cash flow margin (%) | 12.7% | 11.88% | 15.74% | 30.31% | 18.37% | 16.68% | 13.73% | 12.73% | ||
| Free cash flow as disclosed by Alba | 652 | 569 | 765 | FY2023 and FY2025 IR presentations. Alba defines free cash flow on a different basis (FY2023 excludes Power Station 5 Block 4 capital expenditure); the computed line above is operating cash flow less capital expenditure | ||||||
| FINANCING ACTIVITIES | ||||||||||
| Proceeds from loans and borrowings | 1,290 | 3,451 | 2,502 | 2,283 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Repayment of loans and borrowings | -1,461 | -3,619 | -2,943 | -140 | -825 | -650 | -650 | -650 | Forecast: scheduled term amortisation, revolver movement and acquisition facility repayment per the debt schedule on the Balance Sheet tab | |
| Interest on loans, borrowings and leases paid | -114.46 | -90.66 | -87.95 | -78 | -184.37 | -130.21 | -90.25 | -54.50 | ||
| Payment of lease liabilities | -3.13 | -3.37 | -5.57 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | ||
| Dividends paid | -372.74 | -129.87 | -139.79 | -230 | -218.67 | -303.17 | -291.16 | -226.34 | Audited note 12. FY2026E is the 2025 final dividend of BD61.6m paid on 8 April 2026 (BD61,594k actually paid in H1 2026) plus an estimated 2026 interim; thereafter the stated 35% payout policy applied to the prior-year profit attributable to equity holders | |
| Settlement of derivatives | 35.37 | 16.23 | 11.14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Net movement in treasury shares | 0.55 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Proceeds from non-controlling interest (Bpifrance) | 0 | 0 | 2.53 | 117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| NET CASH FLOWS FROM / (USED IN) FINANCING ACTIVITIES | -625.62 | -375.38 | -660.31 | 1,950 | -1,230 | -1,085 | -1,033 | -932.84 | ||
| MOVEMENT IN CASH | ||||||||||
| NET INCREASE / (DECREASE) IN BANK BALANCES AND CASH | -94.07 | 146.07 | 104.97 | 947.78 | -188.52 | -71.50 | -182.42 | -152.58 | ||
| Bank balances and cash at 1 January | 248.98 | 158.60 | 302.66 | 408.90 | 1,357 | 1,168 | 1,097 | 914.24 | FY2023 opening balance of BD93,617k per the audited FY2023 cash flow statement (US$249m) | |
| Effect of movement in exchange rates on cash held | 3.69 | -2.01 | 1.28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| BANK BALANCES AND CASH AT 31 DECEMBER | 158.60 | 302.66 | 408.90 | 1,357 | 1,168 | 1,097 | 914.24 | 761.67 | ||
| Cross-check vs balance sheet (must be nil) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Memo: deposits with original maturity of more than three months | 0 | 20.61 | 22.32 | 22.32 | 22.32 | 22.32 | 22.32 | 22.32 | ||
| Memo: cash and cash equivalents (audited definition) | 158.60 | 282.05 | 386.58 | 1,334 | 1,146 | 1,074 | 891.92 | 739.34 | ||
| CASH FLOW QUALITY METRICS | ||||||||||
| Cash conversion (operating cash flow / EBITDA) | 108.79% | 84.01% | 95.55% | 124.11% | 81.96% | 80.88% | 84.48% | 88.93% | ||
| Capital expenditure as % of revenue | 8.58% | 6.41% | 6.04% | 5.64% | 6.33% | 6.21% | 6.29% | 6.51% | ||
| Capital expenditure as % of depreciation | 98.99% | 75.43% | 70.02% | 52.15% | 65.55% | 67.87% | 68.17% | 68.41% | ||
| Dividends paid as % of free cash flow | 71.45% | 25.34% | 18.78% | 19.47% | 22.15% | 31.35% | 36.07% | 30.43% | ||
| Cumulative free cash flow FY2026E-FY2030E (US$m) | 4,687 | |||||||||
| Movements in deposits with an original maturity of more than three months (BD4,832k in FY2024 and BD643k in FY2025) are excluded from investing activities here so that the statement reconciles to bank balances and cash on the balance sheet rather than to the narrower audited cash and cash equivalents definition. The memo lines above restore the audited presentation. |