Assumptions blue workbook inputs
Revenue ModelIncome StatementCash Flow StatementBalance SheetScenariosDCF Inputs editable input estimate years Expand
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) | Consolidated balance sheet, PP&E roll-forward and debt schedule — US$ millions. FY2023A-FY2025A audited consolidated statement of financial position. Projected cash is the plug from the cash flow statement, so the balance check is an independent test of internal consistency.
| FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | Source / binding | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASSETS | ||||||||||
| Non-current assets | ||||||||||
| Property, plant and equipment | 5,051 | 4,962 | 4,821 | 5,919 | 5,740 | 5,570 | 5,397 | 5,222 | Audited note 4; BD1,812,601k at 31 December 2025 | |
| Goodwill and intangibles arising on acquisition | 0 | 0 | 0 | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 | Residual of the US$2.2bn consideration over identifiable net assets (analyst estimate) | |
| Derivative financial instruments | 22.68 | 23.66 | 12.40 | 12.40 | 12.40 | 12.40 | 12.40 | 12.40 | ||
| Trade and other receivables | 14.42 | 12.78 | 9.80 | 9.80 | 9.80 | 9.80 | 9.80 | 9.80 | ||
| Deferred tax assets | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| Total non-current assets | 5,088 | 4,999 | 4,843 | 6,641 | 6,463 | 6,292 | 6,119 | 5,944 | ||
| Current assets | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 930.31 | 1,078 | 1,015 | 981.96 | 1,113 | 1,222 | 1,312 | 1,337 | Audited note 5. Forecast: percentage of consolidated cost of revenue (inventory days) | |
| Trade and other receivables | 600.23 | 718.88 | 702.92 | 726.94 | 795.29 | 858.29 | 870.22 | 864.41 | Audited note 6. Forecast: percentage of consolidated revenue (receivable days) | |
| Derivative financial instruments | 14.30 | 11.63 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 6.90 | ||
| Bank balances and cash | 158.60 | 302.66 | 408.90 | 1,357 | 1,168 | 1,097 | 914.24 | 761.67 | Audited note 7. Forecast: closing balance from the cash flow statement (the model plug) | |
| Total current assets | 1,703 | 2,111 | 2,134 | 3,072 | 3,084 | 3,184 | 3,103 | 2,970 | ||
| TOTAL ASSETS | 6,791 | 7,110 | 6,977 | 9,714 | 9,546 | 9,476 | 9,223 | 8,914 | ||
| EQUITY | ||||||||||
| Share capital | 377.66 | 377.66 | 377.66 | 377.66 | 377.66 | 377.66 | 377.66 | 377.66 | Audited note 8: 1,420,000,000 shares of 100 fils; 3,952,258 held in treasury at 31 Dec 2025 | |
| Treasury shares | -12.21 | -13.14 | -10.59 | -10.59 | -10.59 | -10.59 | -10.59 | -10.59 | ||
| Statutory reserve | 188.83 | 188.83 | 188.83 | 188.83 | 188.83 | 188.83 | 188.83 | 188.83 | ||
| Capital reserve | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 | ||
| Cash flow hedge reserve | 36.97 | 33.99 | 19.30 | 19.30 | 19.30 | 19.30 | 19.30 | 19.30 | ||
| Retained earnings | 4,167 | 4,529 | 4,968 | 5,363 | 6,011 | 6,539 | 6,895 | 7,225 | Audited statement of changes in equity. Forecast: opening balance plus profit attributable to equity holders less dividends paid | |
| Equity attributable to owners of Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. | 4,759 | 5,117 | 5,544 | 5,939 | 6,587 | 7,115 | 7,471 | 7,801 | ||
| Non-controlling interest | 0 | 0 | 2.53 | 119.53 | 126.69 | 130.55 | 132.75 | 134.12 | ||
| TOTAL EQUITY | 4,759 | 5,117 | 5,547 | 6,059 | 6,713 | 7,246 | 7,604 | 7,935 | ||
| LIABILITIES | ||||||||||
| Non-current liabilities | ||||||||||
| Loans and borrowings | 1,019 | 902.77 | 774.10 | 2,291 | 1,641 | 990.91 | 340.91 | 0 | ||
| Lease liabilities | 20.23 | 18.07 | 29.71 | 27.71 | 25.71 | 23.71 | 21.71 | 19.71 | ||
| Employees' end of service benefits | 4.37 | 2.96 | 3.57 | 3.57 | 3.57 | 3.57 | 3.57 | 3.57 | ||
| Total non-current liabilities | 1,044 | 923.80 | 807.39 | 2,322 | 1,670 | 1,018 | 366.20 | 23.28 | ||
| Current liabilities | ||||||||||
| Loans and borrowings | 538.97 | 503.22 | 198.81 | 825 | 650 | 650 | 650 | 340.91 | ||
| Lease liabilities | 2.40 | 2.71 | 5.67 | 5.67 | 5.67 | 5.67 | 5.67 | 5.67 | ||
| Trade and other payables | 444.76 | 563.39 | 417.12 | 501.28 | 506.00 | 555.56 | 596.37 | 607.75 | Audited note 16. Forecast: percentage of consolidated cost of revenue (payable days) | |
| Derivative financial instruments | 2.95 | 0 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | ||
| Total current liabilities | 989.08 | 1,069 | 622.62 | 1,333 | 1,163 | 1,212 | 1,253 | 955.35 | ||
| TOTAL LIABILITIES | 2,033 | 1,993 | 1,430 | 3,655 | 2,833 | 2,230 | 1,619 | 978.63 | ||
| TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES | 6,791 | 7,110 | 6,977 | 9,714 | 9,546 | 9,476 | 9,223 | 8,914 | ||
| BALANCE CHECK (total assets less total equity and liabilities) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Status | BALANCED | BALANCED | BALANCED | BALANCED | BALANCED | BALANCED | BALANCED | BALANCED | ||
| PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT ROLL-FORWARD | ||||||||||
| Gross property, plant and equipment, opening | 9,941 | 10,177 | 10,306 | 10,526 | 10,806 | 11,106 | 11,416 | |||
| Capital expenditure | Alba | 352.47 | 276.59 | 285.95 | 220 | 280 | 300 | 310 | 320 | Audited cash flow: BD132,527k / BD103,996k / BD107,519k. FY2026E from H1 2026 actual of BD35,292k plus an H2 estimate; FY2027E onward is sustaining capital expenditure. Contracted capital commitments were BD59,696k at 31 December 2025 (audited note 24). No New Replacement Line capex is modelled | |
| Acquired property, plant and equipment | Aluminium Dunkerque | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,300 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | ||
| Disposals and write-offs | -51.80 | -164.53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Gross property, plant and equipment, closing | 10,177 | 10,306 | 10,526 | 10,806 | 11,106 | 11,416 | 11,736 | Audited note 4: BD3,875,213k gross cost at 31 December 2025 | ||
| Depreciation rate on average gross PP&E (%) | 3.65% | 3.99% | 4.05% | 4.05% | 4.05% | 4.05% | 4.05% | |||
| Depreciation and amortisation charge | Alba | 356.08 | 366.67 | 408.38 | 421.86 | 431.99 | 443.73 | 456.09 | 468.84 | ||
| Net property, plant and equipment, closing | 5,051 | 4,962 | 4,821 | 5,919 | 5,740 | 5,570 | 5,397 | 5,222 | ||
| DEBT AND FINANCING SCHEDULE (carrying value, US$m) | Audited note 13. FY2025 carrying value of net loans and borrowings BD365,816k = US$972.8m | |||||||||
| Term facilities, opening | 897.91 | 757.91 | 607.91 | 457.91 | 307.91 | |||||
| Scheduled amortisation | -140 | -150 | -150 | -150 | -150 | Line 6 Refinancing Term Loan (16 semi-annual instalments from October 2022), SERV, EDC and Sinosure export credit facilities per audited note 13 maturity profiles | ||||
| Term facilities, closing | 897.91 | 757.91 | 607.91 | 457.91 | 307.91 | 157.91 | ||||
| Working capital revolving credit, opening | 75 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Net drawdown / (repayment) | 200 | -275 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Working capital revolving credit, closing | 75 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Aluminium Dunkerque acquisition facility, opening | 0 | 2,083 | 1,683 | 1,183 | 683 | |||||
| Drawn | 2,083 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Syndicated facility of up to US$2.25bn signed 22 April 2026, undrawn at 30 June 2026, drawn at closing net of the Bpifrance equity contribution | ||||
| Repaid | 0 | -400 | -500 | -500 | -500 | |||||
| Aluminium Dunkerque acquisition facility, closing | 0 | 2,083 | 1,683 | 1,183 | 683 | 183 | ||||
| TOTAL LOANS AND BORROWINGS | 1,558 | 1,406 | 972.91 | 3,116 | 2,291 | 1,641 | 990.91 | 340.91 | ||
| of which current (due within twelve months) | 538.97 | 503.22 | 198.81 | 825 | 650 | 650 | 650 | 340.91 | ||
| FY2031E scheduled repayments (memo input for the FY2030E current portion) | 650 | |||||||||
| Interest rate, term facilities and revolver (%) | 6% | 5.75% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | SOFR plus 1.47% on the Line 6 refinancing, plus 0.55% to 1.35% on the export credit facilities and revolver, plus amortisation of arrangement fees | ||||
| Interest rate, acquisition facility (%) | 6% | 6% | 5.75% | 5.5% | 5.5% | |||||
| Interest yield on cash and deposits (%) | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | Audited note 7: call accounts earning 0.13% to 4.5% at 31 December 2025 | ||||
| Dividend payout policy (% of prior-year profit attributable to equity holders) | 35% | Policy stated twice by the CFO on the FY2025 earnings call, 18 February 2026, and endorsed by the CEO as a fair payout ratio by smelting industry benchmarks | ||||||||
| WORKING CAPITAL DRIVERS AND CREDIT METRICS | ||||||||||
| Trade and other receivables, % of revenue | 14.62% | 16.67% | 14.86% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% |