Al Ramz Investment Research

Coverage morning note

01 September 2026 | UAE, GCC and India coverage and watchlist | Prepared ahead of the UAE open on Tuesday 1 September

*Dreams AI Associate draft for analyst review; not approved for distribution. See the disclaimer and disclosures at the back of this note.*

Markets this morning

The UAE reopened on Monday 31 August after the Mawlid closure and gave ground in both centres, absorbing four days of global news in one risk-off session. Saudi Arabia slipped alongside them. Oil went the other way and is still going that way this morning.

Sources: DFM and FTSE ADX from Investing.com and Trading Economics, 31 August 2026 closes; Tadawul from Trading Economics, 31 August 2026. Brent and the US 10-year from Trading Economics, live prints taken on 1 September 2026 ahead of the UAE open, so treat those two lines as indicative rather than settled. \*Where a calendar year-to-date figure is not published, we show the trailing twelve-month change and label it as such rather than convert it.

Two forces pull against each other and only one helps equities. Brent through USD 91 is 9.2% higher over the past month, and the driver is supply security rather than demand: renewed exchanges between US and Iranian forces, threats extended to Kharg Island, Iran's principal crude export terminal, and Russian refinery strikes pushing refined-product margins to fresh highs (Trading Economics, 1 September 2026). That is comfortable for Gulf budgets and does nothing for Gulf multiples. The rates side is where the damage sits. At 4.79% the US 10-year is at its highest since January 2025, with markets pricing better than a 65% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase this month (Trading Economics, 1 September 2026). With the dirham pegged, that feeds straight into UAE bank funding costs and into the discount rate on the region's yield names. We read Monday's tape as rates repricing rather than a change in regional fundamentals, and note that August as a whole was still positive, with Dubai and Abu Dhabi adding roughly AED 37bn of market value across the month (Emirates 24|7, August 2026).

News on our coverage

Dubai Islamic Bank (DFM: DIB). No company disclosure. The shares closed at AED 7.20 on 31 August, down 1.50%, the weakest of our UAE names on the reopen (stockanalysis.com, 31 August 2026, 14:56 GST). That is a sector move, and it lands on the variable we have been watching. With the long end of the US curve at a twenty-month high and the peg transmitting it, the deposit repricing that held H1 net profit flat at AED 3.736bn despite 10% gross revenue growth is not easing. We make no change to our rating, fair value or estimates.

HDFC Bank (NSE: HDFCBANK). The most consequential item on the list. Chief executive Sashidhar Jagdishan told the bank on 29 August that he will not seek reappointment; his term ends 26 October. Chairman Rajiv Kumar leads a search the board says it will fast-track. Deputy managing director Kaizad Bharucha leads the internal field, though the fifteen-year cap on executive director board tenure would limit him to about three years, and external candidates at SBI, ICICI, Tata Capital and Aditya Birla Capital have been approached (Business Today, 31 August 2026). Underneath sits litigation: a securities fraud class action filed in the Southern District of New York on 13 August names the bank, Jagdishan and the chief financial officer over deposit rates allegedly paid above RBI norms (GlobeNewswire, 25 August). The shares closed at INR 709.00 on 31 August, down 1.57%, and traded at INR 707.30 at 10:24 IST this morning, close to the INR 700.55 fifty-two-week low (stockanalysis.com, 31 August and 1 September 2026). A two-month leadership search alongside an open US class action is a governance discount, not yet a value opportunity.

Yes Bank (NSE: YESBANK). Monday's best performer on our list at INR 22.83, up 3.30%, giving it back this morning at INR 22.22, down 2.67% at 10:20 IST (stockanalysis.com, 31 August and 1 September 2026). The bank disclosed its participation in the Ashwamedh-Elara India Dialogue in Mumbai, 31 August to 3 September, with no price sensitive information to be shared. We treat the approvals for the up to INR 16,000 crore raise passed at the 19 August AGM as headroom, not an announced issue.

Bank of India (NSE: BANKINDIA). The shares closed at INR 141.59 on 31 August, down 1.67%, and were marginally firmer at INR 141.83 this morning (stockanalysis.com, 31 August and 1 September 2026). It screens cheap on 5.5 times earnings, but our caution stands: non-operating income was 63.10% of June-quarter pre-tax profit, not a mix we would extrapolate.

Alef Education (ADX: ALEFEDU, trading as ALEFEDT). The shares closed at AED 0.9940, up 3.22%, recovering part of the unexplained late-August drop (stockanalysis.com, 31 August 2026). No disclosure since the H1 result on 6 August, revenue AED 361.6m, up 1.2% (Zawya, August 2026). House records carry ALEFEDU, the exchange line ALEFEDT; flagged for the desk.

Emaar Properties (DFM: EMAAR). No new disclosure. The shares closed at AED 10.80, down 1.82%, near the AED 10.15 fifty-two-week low (stockanalysis.com, 31 August 2026), though Emaar still took the largest share of Dubai liquidity in August at roughly AED 4.2bn (Emirates 24|7, August 2026), so the selling is being met. Our view from the H1 print is unchanged: the AED 127.7bn backlog carries the profit line while new property sales, down 45%, are the leading indicator.

ADNOC Gas (ADX: ADNOCGAS). No new disclosure. The shares closed at AED 3.250, up 1.56%, the only UAE name on our list to rise, and led ADX turnover in August at about AED 2.99bn (stockanalysis.com and Emirates 24|7, August 2026). A gas producer with Habshan recovery ahead of schedule is where regional money sits on a Hormuz day. The AED 0.045 quarterly distribution, the dirham leg of the USD 940m approved with the Q2 result, went ex on 14 August and pays Friday.

Salik (DFM: SALIK) closed at AED 5.40, up 0.56%, and Parkin (DFM: PARKIN) unchanged at AED 5.72 (stockanalysis.com, 31 August 2026). No disclosure on either. Parkin's February tariff and seasonal card request is still with the RTA pending Executive Council approval, no decision date published.

Aluminium Bahrain (Bahrain Bourse: ALBH). The shares last printed BHD 0.876 on 30 August, down 0.11% (Investing.com). We could not source a 31 August close and flag the line as one session stale. No disclosure beyond the 16 August appointments (albasmelter.com).

Today and this week

The window runs Tuesday 1 September to Monday 7 September, the next five trading days across the UAE, Tadawul and the Indian exchanges.

The house catalyst calendar carries none scheduled, and we reproduce that record without amendment. Four items from public sources sit alongside the calendar rather than in it:

• Yes Bank institutional meetings, to Thursday 3 September. Ashwamedh-Elara India Dialogue 2026, Mumbai, disclosed to the exchanges on 31 August 2026 with no price sensitive information to be shared. Company-confirmed.
• ADNOC Gas quarterly dividend, AED 0.045 per share, pay date Friday 4 September (ex-date 14 August, record date 17 August; stockanalysis.com dividend record, retrieved 1 September 2026). Not sourced from the company. Unconfirmed.
• Friday 4 September, US Employment Situation for August, 08:30 ET (bls.gov release schedule). Not on the house calendar. Relevant through the peg and UAE bank funding costs.
• HDFC Bank chief executive appointment. The board says it will fast-track ahead of the 26 October handover but has confirmed no date (Business Today, 31 August 2026). Unconfirmed.

Coverage dashboard

Rating and fair value are the house coverage records, reproduced without change. Price is the 31 August 2026 close of AED 7.20 (stockanalysis.com, 14:56 GST). Upside is fair value divided by price, less one. Emaar Properties, Salik, ADNOC Gas, Parkin, Alba, HDFC Bank, Yes Bank, Bank of India and Alef Education are watchlist names and carry no Al Ramz rating or fair value.

Number binding. Every index level and price in this note carries a source and a date. No rating, fair value or estimate has been created, changed or restated.

Disclaimer and disclosures

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