Dreams AI Associate

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Dubai Islamic Bank

DFM: DIB · Quarterly review Q2 2026

Rating

Equal-Weight

Fair value

AED 7.95

Analyst

S. Rahman

Status

published

Stage 2 · Note drafting

Generation complete: DIB_EarningsUpdate_Q22026.md

accepted

Associate summary: Generation complete: DIB_EarningsUpdate_Q22026.md

# Dubai Islamic Bank

## Earnings update, Q2 2026

**28 August 2026 | DFM: DIB | Bloomberg: DIB UH | Reuters: DISB.DU | Banking, UAE**

| | |
|---|---|
| Last close (27 Aug 2026) | AED 7.31 |
| Fair value, new | **AED 7.95** |
| Fair value, old | AED 7.98 |
| Upside to fair value | +8.7% |
| Stock rating | **Equal-Weight, maintained** |
| FY2026E EPS, new | AED 0.930 (old AED 0.928) |
| FY2027E EPS, new | AED 0.861 (old AED 0.891) |
| FY2026E DPS | 35 fils, unchanged |
| Market cap | AED 52.83bn |
| Shares outstanding | 7,240.7m |

Results for the six months ended 30 June 2026 were announced on 14 July 2026. This note inherits the model, chart library, thesis and rating published in our initiation of coverage of 28 August 2026 (*Priced for fade, built for progress*, fair value AED 7.98, Equal-Weight) and updates them for the reported quarter.

*Important notice: Al Ramz Capital may or may not provide financial services to Dubai Islamic Bank or any other related entities. This document is a Dreams AI Associate draft prepared for analyst review and has not been approved for distribution. Please see the disclaimer and disclosures at the back of this note.*

---

## A beat built by provisions, a miss built by costs

DIB reported Q2 2026 net profit of AED 1,937.6m, 4.0% above our pro-rated estimate, and H1 2026 profit before tax of AED 4,334.0m, within AED 0.1m of ours. The headline agreement conceals three compositional differences that matter more than the beat. First, the Q2 profit beat is a provisioning-timing artefact: the impairment charge was AED 69.2m against the AED 206.4m our pro-rata implied, because the AED 186m ECL overlay was taken in Q1 and management confirmed no further overlays in Q2. Above the impairment line Q2 missed, with pre-impairment operating profit 4.1% light. Second, non-funded income beat on the half (+5.9%) but missed in the quarter (-8.1%), because the H1 outperformance is concentrated in a lumpy Q1 "other income" line while Q2 investment property income collapsed to AED 25.6m from AED 207.4m. Third, and the only change with a permanent character, costs are running well ahead of our assumptions: H1 operating expenses rose 9.1% year on year against net operating revenue growth of 6.6%, negative jaws of 2.5pp, and reported H1 cost-to-income of 29.01% sits above management's 28% full-year target.

The near-term numbers barely move because these offset. FY2026E EPS goes from AED 0.928 to AED 0.930, +0.2%. The genuine damage is further out. A permanently higher cost base and a re-based investment property income line cut FY2027E EPS by 3.4% and FY2030E EPS by 3.1%. Blended fair value moves from AED 7.98 to AED 7.95, an upside of 8.7% to the AED 7.31 close, inside the house +/-15% band. We stay Equal-Weight.

### Table 1. Beat and miss versus our estimate

AED millions unless stated. "Our estimate" is the inherited FY2026E model pro-rated: 25% of full-year flows for Q2, 50% for H1, balance sheet items straight-lined from 31 December 2025 to the modelled year end. Surprise is reported divided by our estimate, less one. On expense and impairment lines a negative surprise means the charge came in **smaller** than modelled. No quarterly or half-year consensus is published for DFM-listed DIB, so consensus is shown on the FY2026 basis only.

**Q2 2026 (three months ended 30 June 2026)**

| Metric | Reported | Our estimate | Consensus | Surprise |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Net operating revenue | 3,246.3 | 3,356.0 | n/a | (3.3%) |
| Net funded income | 2,290.5 | 2,315.7 | n/a | (1.1%) |
| Non-funded income | 955.7 | 1,040.3 | n/a | (8.1%) |
| Total operating expenses | (969.2) | (982.7) | n/a | (1.4%) |
| Pre-impairment operating profit | 2,277.0 | 2,373.4 | n/a | (4.1%) |
| Impairment charges, net | (69.2) | (206.4) | n/a | (66.5%) |
| Profit before income tax | 2,207.8 | 2,167.0 | n/a | +1.9% |
| Net profit for the period | 1,937.6 | 1,863.6 | n/a | **+4.0%** |
| Attributable to owners of the Bank | 1,855.9 | 1,785.4 | n/a | +3.9% |
| EPS (AED) | 0.25 | 0.232 | n/a | +7.7% |

**H1 2026 (six months ended 30 June 2026), balance sheet at 30 June, and FY2026 versus consensus**

| Metric | Reported | Our estimate | Consensus | Surprise |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Net operating revenue | 6,794.5 | 6,712.1 | n/a | +1.2% |
| Net funded income | 4,590.2 | 4,631.4 | n/a | (0.9%) |
| Non-funded income | 2,204.3 | 2,080.7 | n/a | **+5.9%** |
| Total operating expenses | (1,971.3) | (1,965.4) | n/a | +0.3% |
| Cost-to-income ratio | 29.01% | 29.28% | n/a | (0.27pp) |
| Impairment charges, net | (489.3) | (412.8) | n/a | **+18.5%** |
| Profit before income tax | 4,334.0 | 4,334.0 | n/a | 0.0% |
| Net profit for the period | 3,736.3 | 3,727.3 | n/a | +0.2% |
| EPS (AED) | 0.47 | 0.464 | n/a | +1.3% |
| Islamic financing, net, 30 Jun 2026 | 280,995.4 | 275,157.9 | n/a | **+2.1%** |
| Investments in sukuk, 30 Jun 2026 | 85,165.7 | 90,588.6 | n/a | **(6.0%)** |
| Customers' deposits, 30 Jun 2026 | 326,978.3 | 329,790.0 | n/a | (0.9%) |
| Total assets, 30 Jun 2026 | 423,169.7 | 427,814.8 | n/a | (1.1%) |
| Net operating revenue, FY2026E | 13,519.0 | 13,424.1 | 13,400 | +0.9% vs cons. |
| EPS, FY2026E (AED) | 0.930 | 0.928 | 0.95 | (2.1%) vs cons. |

Source: DIB reviewed condensed consolidated interim financial information for the six-month period ended 30 June 2026, authorised for issue 14 July 2026 [1]; inherited model `DIB_Financial_Model_2026-08-28.xlsx` and revised model `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`; consensus from Simply Wall St, 8 analysts, 1 May 2026 [5]. Al Ramz Investment Research.

---

## Volumes ahead of plan, costs ahead of revenue

### Financing growth is the good news, and it is genuinely good

Net Islamic financing and investing assets reached AED 280,995.4m at 30 June, up 7.2% year to date against the 10% full-year growth we carried into the quarter and the "around 10%" management guided. DIB originated AED 43bn of gross new financing in the half [2]. On that trajectory, hitting our old 10% assumption would require the book to shrink in the second half, which is not a serious forecast. We have raised FY2026E net financing growth to 12%, which needs only 4.4% in H2, and management flagged a stronger H2 pipeline across sovereign, energy, aviation, utilities and manufacturing on the results call [4].

The offset is that the sukuk book is funding it. Investments in sukuk fell 6.0% year to date to AED 85,165.7m against our assumption of no change, and we have moved FY2026E sukuk growth to -5.0%, allowing a 1% H2 rebuild. Total earning assets therefore grew only 3.8% in the half, to AED 366,161.1m, well behind the 7.2% financing growth. This is a mix shift toward higher-yielding, higher-risk-weighted assets, not balance sheet expansion: total assets rose just 1.7% year to date to AED 423,169.7m.

> **Chart 1. Financing versus deposits with the financing-to-deposit ratio**
> Inherited slot, refresh with 30 June 2026 actuals: `Task4_Charts/charts/chart_06_financing_deposits_fdr.png`. FDR at 30 June 2026 is 85.9% (AED 280,995.4m over AED 326,978.3m).
> Source: DIB interim financial information, 30 June 2026 [1]; revised model `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`; Al Ramz Investment Research.

### The funding mix moved more than the funding cost

Customers' deposits rose only 2.1% year to date to AED 326,978.3m, 0.9% below our straight-lined estimate. The gap between 7.2% financing growth and 2.1% deposit growth was filled from two visible places. Due to banks and financial institutions rose to AED 9,913.8m from AED 1,966.4m at the year end, and the senior sukuk balance fell to AED 16,623.5m from AED 25,070.7m as maturities ran off without full replacement. Interbank funding is now a standing part of the mix rather than a residual, and we have moved the model accordingly: due to banks to AED 9,000m from AED 6,000m, senior sukuk issued to AED 18,000m from AED 20,000m for FY2026E. We have held FY2026E customer deposit growth at 6.0%, since the H2 season is seasonally stronger and the funding gap is better captured through the mix lines.

We have also held the FY2026E cost of funds at 3.20%: H1 annualised at 3.222%, and management attributed elevated Q2 term-deposit pricing to a temporary liquidity premium it expects to normalise [4]. We take that at face value for now, but the pressure is real: depositors' and sukuk-holders' share of profit rose 13.3% year on year in H1 against 10.1% growth in income from financing and investing transactions, and in Q2 alone those two lines grew 10.4% and 9.3%. The asset side is not repricing fast enough to cover the liability side. CASA balances of AED 112bn, 34% of customer deposits, are the structural defence, and they held [2].

Management's disclosed net profit margin for H1 was 2.4%, above the 2.3% full-year guidance floor [2]. That is one half of the margin-floor test we set at initiation, which requires two consecutive periods at or above 2.3%. We are not yet calling the trough. Our revised FY2026E gross yield on average earning assets is 5.67%, up 2bps, reflecting the H1 annualised 5.695% against a slightly lower expected H2 exit as the easing path transmits through the dirham peg.

> **Chart 2. Margin dynamics: gross yield, cost of funds and net profit margin**
> Inherited slot, refresh with H1 2026 actuals: `Task4_Charts/charts/chart_07_margin_dynamics.png`.
> Source: DIB interim financial information, 30 June 2026 [1]; DIB H1 2026 results release [2]; revised model `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`, `Revenue Model` tab.

### Non-funded income: one strong half, two weak lines

H1 non-funded income of AED 2,204.3m beat our estimate by 5.9% and rose 7.1% year on year. The entire beat is "other income", which reached AED 785.3m against AED 270.4m in H1 2025, up 190%, and AED 585.0m of that landed in Q1. Q2 other income of AED 200.2m is the number to plan from. We have raised FY2026E other income to AED 1,250m from AED 1,000m, which implies H2 of AED 465m against a AED 400m annualised Q2 run rate, and we have lifted the FY2027E to FY2030E path to AED 900m, 900m, 950m and 1,000m from AED 800m, 800m, 850m and 900m. The line has re-based across FY2025 and FY2026 (from AED 294.2m in FY2023 to AED 1,003.6m in FY2025) and the old outer-year path implied a return to 2023-24 levels that six quarters of evidence do not support.

Two lines went the other way. Commissions, fees and FX income of AED 906.3m fell 2.7% year on year in H1 against our +6% growth assumption. The weakness is entirely Q1 (AED 427.0m, down 15.5%); Q2 fees of AED 479.3m rose 12.4%. We have cut FY2026E fee growth to 0.0% from +6.0%, which implies H2 of AED 967.6m, up 2.7% year on year, consistent with the Q2 recovery rather than the weak Q1. We have left the outer-year fee rates alone: converting balance sheet growth into capital-light fee income is one of our four upgrade triggers, and one recovering quarter does not move it.

Income from investment properties is the more serious problem. It came in at AED 79.7m for the half against AED 380.7m a year earlier, and at AED 25.6m in Q2 against AED 207.4m. Set against FY2024 of AED 738.9m and FY2025 of AED 504.7m, this is the third consecutive step down, and we now read it as a level reset rather than a timing effect. We have cut FY2026E to AED 180m from AED 300m, implying H2 of AED 100m against AED 124m in H2 2025, and FY2027E to FY2030E to AED 200m each from AED 300m each.

> **Chart 3. Quarterly non-funded income by component, Q1 2025 to Q2 2026**
> New slot. Build from `'Q2 2026 Actuals'!B8:G13` in the revised model: fees and FX, investments at fair value, properties held for development and sale, investment properties, associates, other income.
> Source: DIB interim financial information for the six-month periods ended 30 June 2026 and 30 June 2025 [1]; Q1 2026 derived as H1 less Q2 and cross-checked to the Q1 announcement [8].

### Costs are the real miss, and they are why the outer years move

H1 operating expenses of AED 1,971.3m landed within 0.3% of our pro-rated estimate, which is why the cost line does not show up as a miss in Table 1. It is a miss against growth, not against level. Expenses rose 9.1% year on year while net operating revenue rose 6.6%, negative jaws of 2.5pp. Personnel costs were up 8.2% and general and administrative expenses up 14.1% on digital and franchise investment, against the 5% and 4% full-year growth rates we carried in the inherited model. Reported H1 cost-to-income of 29.01% is above management's 28% target and above our 29.28% modelled year.

We have raised FY2026E personnel expense growth to 7.5% and G&A growth to 10.0%. Those imply H2 growth moderating to 6.8% and 6.3%, so we are not extrapolating the H1 rate; we are assuming it decelerates, and still land 3.3% above the old cost base. FY2026E cost-to-income rises to 30.05% from 29.28%, and implied H2 operating expenses of AED 2,090.9m are 6.9% above H2 2025.

The consequence in the outer years is larger than the FY2026 move, and it is the single most important thing in this note. Holding the inherited 5% personnel and 4% G&A growth rates off a base that is now 3.3% higher pushes cost-to-income above 31% through the forecast period, peaking at 31.5% in FY2028E against 30.4% before. Reaching management's 28% target from here requires cost growth below our assumption, not merely revenue growth above it.

> **Chart 4. Cost-to-income ratio, FY2021 to FY2030E, old and new estimate paths**
> Inherited slot, refresh with the revised path: `Task4_Charts/charts/chart_08_cost_to_income.png`. New path 30.1%, 31.1%, 31.5%, 31.0%, 30.5% for FY2026E to FY2030E against old 29.3%, 29.9%, 30.4%, 29.9%, 29.4%. H1 2026 actual 29.01%, management target 28%.
> Source: DIB interim financial information [1]; inherited and revised models; Al Ramz Investment Research estimates.

### Asset quality: a clean quarter after a front-loaded charge

The impairment line produced the reported beat and carries the least information. H1 impairment charges of AED 489.3m were 18.5% above our pro-rated estimate and 91% above H1 2025, but AED 186m of that was the Q1 ECL overlay [3]. Q2 carried a charge of AED 69.2m, roughly 10bps annualised, with management confirming no further overlays in the quarter [4]. The disclosed KPIs improved across the board: the non-performing financing ratio fell to 2.4%, cash coverage reached 122% and total coverage 158% [2].

We have cut FY2026E cost of risk to 28bps from 30bps, matching management's disclosed H1 figure. That implies H2 charges of AED 288m, still roughly double the Q2 run rate, which we regard as the appropriate degree of caution. We have deliberately not touched the outer-year path of 40, 45, 45 and 45bps. It already sits below the 50-60bps normalised level management describes [4], and one benign quarter following a front-loaded overlay is not evidence about 2027 to 2030.

> **Chart 5. Quarterly impairment charge and annualised cost of risk, Q1 2025 to Q2 2026**
> New slot. Q2 2026 charge AED 69.2m; Q1 2026 AED 420.1m including the AED 186m overlay; Q2 2025 AED 93.2m; H1 2025 AED 256.2m.
> Source: DIB interim financial information [1]; H1 2026 investor presentation coverage [3].

> **Chart 6. NPF ratio and coverage**
> Inherited slot, refresh with H1 2026: `Task4_Charts/charts/chart_11_npf_coverage.png`. NPF 2.4%, cash coverage 122%, total coverage 158%.
> Source: DIB H1 2026 results release, 14 July 2026 [2].

### Capital and tax

CET1 stood at 13.0% and the capital adequacy ratio at 16.1% at 30 June, with LCR at 140% and NSFR at 105% [2]. CET1 is up roughly 70bps year to date following the June AT1 issue [3], which closes out the capital-rebuild pillar of the initiation thesis.

The effective tax rate for the half was 13.79%, and 12.24% in Q2 alone, against the 14.0% we modelled. We have cut FY2026E to 13.8% but left the 15.0% medium-term rate untouched, because the H1 rate reflects period-specific reliefs rather than any change in the UAE corporate tax and Pillar Two arithmetic. Minorities took 4.40% of group profit in H1 against 3.56% a year earlier, and we have raised the NCI share to 4.4% from 4.2% across the forecast.

> **Chart 7. Funding mix at 31 December 2025 versus 30 June 2026**
> New slot. Customers' deposits AED 320,184.4m to AED 326,978.3m; due to banks AED 1,966.4m to AED 9,913.8m; senior sukuk issued AED 25,070.7m to AED 16,623.5m.
> Source: DIB interim financial information, statement of financial position at 30 June 2026 [1].

> **Chart 8. Capital ratios**
> Inherited slot, refresh with 30 June 2026: `Task4_Charts/charts/chart_22_capital_ratios.png`. CET1 13.0%, CAR 16.1%.
> Source: DIB H1 2026 results release, 14 July 2026 [2].

---

## What changes in our numbers

Sixteen driver assumptions moved. The full log, with model cell references and a reason for each, sits in the Stage 1 working paper and in section E of the "Q2 2026 Actuals" sheet of `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`. Table 2 shows what those drivers reduce to at the estimate level.

### Table 2. Old versus new estimates

AED millions unless stated.

| Metric | Old | New | Change | Why |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Net operating revenue, FY2026E | 13,424.1 | 13,519.0 | +0.7% | Financing growth to 12% from 10% (`'Revenue Model'!G8`) more than covers lower fees and property income |
| Net funded income, FY2026E | 9,262.8 | 9,340.1 | +0.8% | Larger financing book, gross yield 5.67% from 5.65% (`'Revenue Model'!G15`), cost of funds held at 3.20% |
| Non-funded income, FY2026E | 4,161.3 | 4,178.9 | +0.4% | Other income to AED 1,250m nets against fees to 0% growth and property income to AED 180m |
| Total operating expenses, FY2026E | (3,930.7) | (4,062.2) | +3.3% | Personnel growth to 7.5% from 5.0%, G&A to 10.0% from 4.0% (`'Income Statement'!G21:G22`) |
| Cost-to-income ratio, FY2026E | 29.28% | 30.05% | +0.77pp | Consequence of the two lines above |
| Pre-impairment operating profit, FY2026E | 9,493.5 | 9,456.9 | (0.4%) | Costs outrun the revenue upgrade |
| Impairment charges, FY2026E | (825.5) | (777.8) | (5.8%) | Cost of risk to 28bps from 30bps (`'Income Statement'!G30`), matching the disclosed H1 figure |
| Profit before income tax, FY2026E | 8,668.0 | 8,679.1 | +0.1% | Revenue and provisions offset the cost increase |
| Net profit, FY2026E | 7,454.5 | 7,481.4 | +0.4% | Plus a lower effective tax rate, 13.8% from 14.0% (`'Income Statement'!G34`) |
| **EPS, FY2026E (AED)** | **0.928** | **0.930** | **+0.2%** | Net of a higher NCI share, 4.4% from 4.2% (`'Income Statement'!G38`) |
| **EPS, FY2027E (AED)** | **0.891** | **0.861** | **(3.4%)** | Higher cost base carried forward, plus investment property income re-based to AED 200m (`'Revenue Model'!H36`) |
| EPS, FY2028E (AED) | 0.886 | 0.857 | (3.3%) | Same two effects |
| EPS, FY2029E (AED) | 0.952 | 0.921 | (3.2%) | Same two effects |
| **EPS, FY2030E (AED)** | **1.020** | **0.988** | **(3.1%)** | Same two effects; this is the line that sets the DDM terminal value |
| Cost-to-income ratio, FY2028E | 30.4% | 31.5% | +1.1pp | The permanent effect of the higher cost base at unchanged outer-year growth rates |
| DPS, FY2026E (fils) | 35 | 35 | unchanged | No interim dividend; DIB declares annually and nothing in H1 changes the payout view |
| ROTE, FY2026E | 15.07% | 15.09% | +2bps | Marginally higher profit on an essentially unchanged equity base |
| Net financing, FY2026E year end | 288,260.6 | 293,501.7 | +1.8% | 12% growth needs only 4.4% in H2 from the 30 June base |
| Investments in sukuk, FY2026E year end | 90,588.6 | 86,059.2 | (5.0%) | Book ran off 6.0% YTD; we allow a 1% H2 rebuild (`'Revenue Model'!G10`) |
| Total assets, FY2026E year end | 439,681.3 | 440,708.2 | +0.2% | The financing gain nets against the sukuk run-off |
| Tangible book value per share, FY2026E (AED) | 6.443 | 6.444 | +0.0% | Retained earnings essentially unchanged |

Source: inherited model `DIB_Financial_Model_2026-08-28.xlsx` and revised model `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`, cell references as shown. Al Ramz Investment Research estimates.

**The near-term revision is a wash, and that is the point.** FY2026E EPS moves 0.2 fils. A AED 94.9m revenue upgrade and a AED 47.7m provision reduction, plus 20bps off the tax rate, are almost exactly consumed by a AED 131.5m increase in the cost base and a higher minority share. Anyone reading only the FY2026 line would conclude the quarter changed nothing. It changed the shape of the P&L, not its bottom line.

**The volume upgrade is the largest single positive revision.** Raising FY2026E financing growth to 12% adds AED 5.2bn to the year-end book and AED 77.3m to net funded income, and it is the only revision made on evidence of delivery rather than on a re-reading of a weak line. We have paid for part of it with the sukuk run-off, which takes AED 4.5bn off the year-end investment portfolio, so total assets move only 0.2%. The earnings benefit comes from mix, not size.

**The FY2027E cut of 3.4% is the substantive revision, and it is two things.** Roughly two-thirds is the cost base. We have not raised outer-year cost growth rates. We have simply carried the higher FY2026 base forward at the inherited 5% and 4% rates, and that alone lifts cost-to-income above 31%. The remaining third is the investment property income reset from AED 300m to AED 200m per year, which is a level change we now believe in after three consecutive declines and which flows straight to pre-tax profit with no offset. For consistency we have also moved the base-case cost-to-income input in the scenario engine to 30.0% from 29.5% (`Scenarios!C10`), so the 2030E bull, base and bear outputs stay aligned with the full model.

**What we did not revise matters as much as what we did.** We held the FY2026E cost of funds at 3.20%, customer deposit growth at 6.0%, the outer-year cost of risk path at 40, 45, 45 and 45bps, the effective tax rate beyond FY2026E at 15.0%, the FY2026E dividend at 35 fils, and the entire valuation input set: cost of equity 10.7%, terminal growth 3.0%, sustainable ROTE 13.0%. Those inputs are set on a through-cycle basis and one in-line quarter is not a reason to move them. Receivables, payables and reserve lines that differ between the 30 June balance sheet and our modelled year end were left alone as volatile, non-earning items with no effect on profit or valuation; the reported balances are recorded on the "Q2 2026 Actuals" sheet for the record.

> **Chart 9. EPS and DPS, FY2021 to FY2030E, old and new estimate paths**
> Inherited slot, refresh with both paths: `Task4_Charts/charts/chart_01_eps_dps.png`. New EPS 0.930, 0.861, 0.857, 0.921, 0.988 for FY2026E to FY2030E against old 0.928, 0.891, 0.886, 0.952, 1.020.
> Source: revised model `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`, `Income Statement` tab; Al Ramz Investment Research estimates.

---

## Thesis intact, cost discipline the new open question

We initiated on five propositions. The quarter confirms three, leaves one untested, and puts real pressure on a sixth that was not in the original list.

**The policy tailwind converts into volume. Confirmed.** Net financing grew 7.2% in six months, ahead of the 10% full-year plan, on AED 43bn of gross new originations, with management pointing to a stronger H2 pipeline. DIB is taking the balance sheet share the UAE Islamic finance strategy implies, and we have raised our growth assumption rather than trimmed it. Of the five pillars this is the one most exposed to a single quarter of evidence, and the evidence came in on the right side.

**The capital rebuild is finished. Confirmed.** CET1 at 13.0% and CAR at 16.1% fund the growth plan without recourse to shareholders, and the equity-raise tail risk that hung over the initiation is off the table.

**The earnings math has changed and shareholders eat the difference. Confirmed, uncomfortably.** Gross revenue rose 10% year on year to AED 12.4bn and pre-impairment operating profit rose 5.7%, while attributable profit fell 0.7% to AED 3,572.0m. Three halves of flat after-tax earnings is now four. The tax wedge, the margin compression and the normalising cost of risk are doing exactly what we said they would, and this quarter adds a fourth drag we had not sized: operating leverage running backwards.

**The payout lever remains live and remains unpulled. Untested.** DIB declares annually, so there was no interim dividend and no payout signal in this release. Our DDM still carries 35 fils for FY2026E rising to 45 fils by FY2030E. This is the single largest source of upside in our valuation and nothing in the quarter moved it either way.

**The de-rating overstates the fade. Broadly intact, marginally weaker.** At AED 7.31 the stock trades on 7.9x our revised FY2026E EPS and roughly 1.2x tangible book at 30 June. Our fair value of AED 7.95 still says the market is too pessimistic, but by 8.7% rather than 9.2%, and the FY2027E cut makes the earnings trough deeper: EPS now bottoms at AED 0.857 in FY2028E against AED 0.886 before. The market's P/B machine prices returns, and we have just marked returns down slightly in the years the market is looking at.

**The new pressure point is cost discipline.** This was not a thesis pillar at initiation, because the inherited model assumed 4% to 5% cost growth and the historical record supported it. H1 delivered 9.1%. The band around our FY2027E number is now wide in both directions: if management holds cost-to-income at the 28% it guides, our FY2027E EPS of AED 0.861 is roughly 4% too low; if the H1 growth rate persists rather than decelerating as we assume, it is too high by a similar margin. That is the widest single uncertainty in the forecast, and it did not exist a quarter ago.

### Valuation and rating

The four-method blend and its equal weights are inherited unchanged from the initiation. Only the estimates underneath them moved.

### Table 3. Fair value build, old versus new

| Method | Weight | Old (AED) | New (AED) | Change |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Justified P/TBV (Gordon growth on ROTE) | 25% | 8.37 | 8.37 | +0.0% |
| Dividend discount model | 25% | 6.39 | 6.24 | (2.4%) |
| Trading comparables | 25% | 8.29 | 8.30 | +0.1% |
| Historical multiples | 25% | 8.87 | 8.88 | +0.1% |
| **Blended fair value** | **100%** | **7.98** | **7.95** | **(0.4%)** |

Source: revised model `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`, `Valuation Summary` tab. Al Ramz Investment Research estimates.

The DDM does all the work. Dividends per share to 2030 are unchanged at 35, 38, 40, 42 and 45 fils, so the entire AED 0.15 decline comes from the terminal value, which is set off FY2030E EPS, down 3.1% on the higher cost base. The justified P/TBV leg is unchanged because FY2026E tangible book per share moved by less than a tenth of a fil and we held sustainable ROTE at 13.0%. The comparables and historical-multiple legs are anchored on FY2026E EPS and tangible book, both essentially flat, so they move only by rounding.

**Rating under the house rule.** Fair value of AED 7.95 against the 27 August 2026 close of AED 7.31 is an upside of 8.7%. The house rule sets Over-Weight above +15% upside to fair value and Under-Weight below -15%. At +8.7% DIB sits inside the band. **Equal-Weight, maintained** (prior fair value AED 7.98, upside 9.2%). Adding the FY2026E dividend yield of 4.8% gives a total expected return of roughly 13.5%, still short of the Over-Weight threshold on price alone.

**Sensitivity around the threshold.** The rating is not close to changing. Fair value would need to reach AED 8.41 for Over-Weight, AED 0.46 or 5.8% above where the revised model puts it, or fall to AED 6.21 for Under-Weight, 21.9% below. Taking sustainable ROTE in the justified P/TBV leg as the single lever, it would have to rise from 13.0% to roughly 15.2% to carry the blend across the Over-Weight line. Reported H1 post-tax ROTE annualised at 15.7%, so that number is not absurd on its face, but adopting it means capitalising the current return in perpetuity on a tangible common equity base that management is deliberately rebuilding, and nothing in this quarter argues for it. The alternative route is the payout lever: our initiation work showed each ten points of payout normalisation is worth roughly half a dirham of DDM value, so a move to a 55-60% payout from 2027 would lift the DDM leg toward AED 7.5 to 8.0 and the blend by AED 0.30 to 0.40. That does not reach AED 8.41 on its own, but combined with a demonstrated margin floor it would.

For reference, the street price target consensus stands at AED 8.21 across 14 analysts as at 27 August 2026 [7], 3.3% above our revised fair value, on a Hold-equivalent stance. Our FY2026E EPS of AED 0.930 is 2.1% below the AED 0.95 consensus published on 1 May 2026 [5], and we would expect that gap to close toward us as the street marks the cost line.

> **Chart 10. Fair value by method versus current price, old and new**
> Inherited slot, refresh with Table 3: `Task4_Charts/charts/chart_27_fair_value_methods.png`.
> Source: revised model `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`, `Valuation Summary` tab.

> **Chart 11. Justified P/TBV sensitivity, cost of equity versus sustainable ROTE**
> Inherited slot, inputs unchanged: `Task4_Charts/charts/chart_28_dcf_sensitivity.png`. Mark the AED 8.41 Over-Weight and AED 6.21 Under-Weight thresholds on the surface.
> Source: revised model `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`, `Sensitivity` tab.

> **Chart 12. Pre-tax versus net profit, the UAE tax wedge**
> Inherited slot, refresh with H1 2026: `Task4_Charts/charts/chart_12_tax_wedge.png`. H1 2026 pre-tax AED 4,334.0m, tax AED 597.7m, net AED 3,736.3m, attributable AED 3,572.0m.
> Source: DIB interim financial information, 30 June 2026 [1]; revised model.

---

## What we are watching

**1. H2 operating expense growth against the 28% cost-to-income target.** Our FY2026E assumes personnel and G&A growth decelerate to 6.8% and 6.3% in H2 from 8.2% and 14.1% in H1, giving implied H2 expenses of AED 2,090.9m. If Q3 shows the H1 rates persisting, cost-to-income goes above 30.5% for the year and our FY2027E EPS of AED 0.861 is too high. This is the most consequential single number in the next release.

**2. A second consecutive period with net profit margin at or above 2.3%.** H1 printed 2.4% on management's basis. The upgrade test we set at initiation requires two. A Q3 print at or above the floor, with deposit costs visibly repricing down as management expects, is the strongest available evidence that the margin trough is behind the story rather than ahead of it.

**3. Whether interbank funding stays in the mix.** Due to banks went from AED 2.0bn to AED 9.9bn while senior sukuk fell AED 8.4bn. Management flagged possible H2 senior unsecured issuance but not a full replacement [3]. A term issue at the record-tight spreads the sukuk market is currently offering would help both the funding cost and the fee franchise; continued reliance on short interbank would not.

**4. Impairment charges against our AED 288m H2 assumption.** Q2 ran at roughly 10bps annualised while our H2 assumption is double that. A second clean quarter would push FY2026E cost of risk below 28bps and add to earnings. A second overlay would tell us the Q1 charge was a signal rather than a one-off, and would put the 40 to 45bps outer-year path under review.

**5. Any payout signal ahead of the FY2026 declaration.** DIB declares annually, so the next hard data point on the largest lever in our valuation does not arrive until the full-year results. Commentary on capital allocation priorities on the Q3 call is the only intervening evidence available, and it is worth listening for.

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## Summary financials

*Assembled at Stage 3 from the revised model `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`. AED millions unless stated.*

| | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Net operating revenue | | | 13,519.0 | | | | |
| Total operating expenses | | | (4,062.2) | | | | |
| Cost-to-income ratio | | | 30.1% | 31.1% | 31.5% | 31.0% | 30.5% |
| Pre-impairment operating profit | | | 9,456.9 | | | | |
| Impairment charges, net | | | (777.8) | | | | |
| Cost of risk (bps) | 14 | 14 | 28 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Profit before income tax | | | 8,679.1 | | | | |
| Effective tax rate | | | 13.8% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Net profit | | | 7,481.4 | | | | |
| Attributable to owners | | | 7,152.2 | | | | |
| EPS (AED) | 1.04 | 0.98 | 0.930 | 0.861 | 0.857 | 0.921 | 0.988 |
| DPS (fils) | 45 | 35 | 35 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 45 |
| ROTE | | | 15.09% | | | | |
| Net financing, year end | | 262,055.1 | 293,501.7 | | | | |
| Investments in sukuk, year end | | 90,588.6 | 86,059.2 | | | | |
| Total assets, year end | | 415,948.2 | 440,708.2 | | | | |
| Tangible book value per share (AED) | | | 6.444 | | | | |

Source: FY2024 and FY2025 audited consolidated financial statements; FY2026E to FY2030E Al Ramz Investment Research estimates from the revised model `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`. Blank cells are populated from the `Income Statement` and `Balance Sheet` tabs at assembly.

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## Sources and references

1. Dubai Islamic Bank P.J.S.C., **Review report and condensed consolidated interim financial information (unaudited) for the six-month period ended 30 June 2026**. Reviewed by KPMG Lower Gulf Limited; authorised for issue by the Board 14 July 2026. Primary source for every reported figure in this note. https://www.dib.ae/about-us/investor-relations/financial-information (retrieved 28 August 2026)
2. DIB, **"DIB Posts Strong H1 2026 Results with Gross Revenue up 10% YoY to AED 12.4 Billion and Asset Quality Continuing to Advance"**, results release, 14 July 2026. Source for disclosed KPIs: NPF 2.4%, cost of risk 28bps, cash coverage 122%, total coverage 158%, CET1 13.0%, CAR 16.1%, LCR 140%, NSFR 105%, CASA AED 112bn, gross new financing AED 43bn. https://www.dib.ae/about-us/news/2026/07/14/dib-posts-strong-h1-2026-results
3. Investing.com, **"Dubai Islamic Bank H1 2026 slides: revenue up 10%, asset quality improves"**, 15 July 2026. Coverage of the H1 2026 investor presentation; source for the AED 186m Q1 ECL overlay, the AT1 issue and CET1 movement, segment financing detail, and the maintained FY2026 guidance set. https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/dubai-islamic-bank-h1-2026-slides-revenue-up-10-asset-quality-improves-93CH-4792503
4. Investing.com, **"Earnings call transcript: DIB posts strong H1 2026 growth, keeps guidance"**, 15 July 2026. Source for management commentary on no additional Q2 overlays, the 50-60bps normalised cost of risk, elevated Q2 deposit pricing expected to ease, the stronger H2 lending pipeline, and unchanged FY2026 guidance. https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-dib-posts-strong-h1-2026-growth-keeps-guidance-93CH-4792482
5. Simply Wall St, **"Dubai Islamic Bank P.J.S.C. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions"**, 1 May 2026. Post-Q1 2026 consensus, 8 analysts: FY2026E revenue AED 13.4bn, FY2026E statutory EPS AED 0.95, consensus price target AED 8.97. The most recent dated consensus available; no Q2 or H1 2026 consensus is published for DIB. https://simplywall.st/stocks/ae/banks/dfm-dib/dubai-islamic-bank-pjsc-shares/news/dubai-islamic-bank-pjsc-just-beat-analyst-forecasts-and-anal-1
6. Reuters via TradingView, **"Dubai Islamic Bank Q2 Net Profit Flat At 1.86 Billion Dirhams"**, July 2026. Confirms the Q2 attributable result of AED 1,855.9m; carries no analyst estimate comparison. https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2026:newsml_FWN43G0MK:0-dubai-islamic-bank-q2-net-profit-flat-at-1-86-billion-dirhams/
7. stockanalysis.com, **DFM:DIB quote page**, 27 August 2026, 15:00 GST. Share price AED 7.31, market capitalisation AED 52.83bn, analyst price target AED 8.21 across 14 analysts. https://stockanalysis.com/quote/dfm/DIB/
8. **Q1 2026 comparatives**, used to derive the Q2 standalone reconciliation: DIB Q1 2026 results announced 29 April 2026, net profit AED 1,798.7m, pre-tax profit AED 2.1bn, operating revenue AED 3,548.3m, reported by Zawya/Reuters and Business Today Middle East, 29-30 April 2026. All three tie exactly to H1 2026 less Q2 2026 in source [1], which is our check that the quarterly split is correct.

**Inherited coverage.** Al Ramz Investment Research, **Dubai Islamic Bank, Initiation of Coverage, "Priced for fade, built for progress"**, 28 August 2026. Fair value AED 7.98, Equal-Weight. Model `Task2_Model/DIB_Financial_Model_2026-08-28.xlsx`; valuation `Task3_Valuation/DIB_Valuation_Analysis_2026-08-28.md`; chart library `Task4_Charts/charts/`.

**Number binding.** Every reported figure in this note traces to source [1] or to a disclosed KPI in sources [2] and [3]. Every estimate traces to a named cell in `DIB_Model_Q22026.xlsx`, with the full sixteen-item revision log in `EU_Q22026/Stage1/DIB_BeatMiss_Q22026.md` section 3 and in section E of the workbook's "Q2 2026 Actuals" sheet. Every valuation figure comes from the `Valuation Summary` and `Sensitivity` tabs of the same workbook. Consensus figures are from source [5]; the share price and street price target are from source [7].

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